Association of Oil Pipe Lines v. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Related Cases

                  United States Court of Appeals

               FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT

        Argued January 15, 2002     Decided March 1, 2002 

                           No. 01-1066

                 Association of Oil Pipe Lines, 
                            Petitioner

                                v.

            Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and 
                    United States of America, 
                           Respondents

      Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, et al., 
                           Intervenors

            On Petition for Review of an Order of the 
               Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

     C. Frederick Beckner III argued the cause for petitioner.  
With him on the briefs were Lawrence A. Miller and Michele 
F. Joy.

     Dennis Lane, Solicitor, Federal Energy Regulatory Com-
mission, argued the cause for respondents.  With him on the 
brief was Cynthia A. Marlette, Acting General Counsel.  
John J. Powers III and Robert J. Wiggers, Attorneys, U.S. 
Department of Justice, entered appearances.

     James H. Holt and Melvin Goldstein were on the brief for 
intervenors.

     Before:  Sentelle and Rogers, Circuit Judges, and 
Williams, Senior Circuit Judge.
     
     Opinion for the Court filed by Senior Circuit Judge 
Williams.

     Williams, Senior Circuit Judge:  In December 2000 the 
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission established a formu-
la for changes in the ensuing years' price caps for interstate 
oil pipelines.  See Order Concluding Initial Five-Year Re-
view of the Oil Pipeline Pricing Index, 93 FERC p 61,266 
(2000) ("Order" or "2000 Order").  To drive the annual 
change in the caps, it chose the Producer Price Index for 
Finished Goods minus one percent ("PPI-1").  Petitioner 
Association of Oil Pipe Lines challenges this as arbitrary and 
capricious, saying that the FERC Staff report justifying 
continuing adherence to the PPI-1 index used statistical 
methods that deviated from FERC's previous methodology 
without apparent justification, and that it also failed to ac-
count for special factors potentially altering the pattern of 
future changes.  We find FERC's responses to the Associa-
tion's criticisms inadequate--except as to the special fac-
tors--and therefore remand for further proceedings.

                             *  *  *

     In prior orders FERC adopted a price cap regime for oil 
pipelines.  See Revisions to Oil Pipeline Regulations Pursu-
ant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992, Order No. 561, 
F.E.R.C. Stats. & Regs. (CCH) p 30,985 (1993) ("Order No. 
561");  Revisions to Oil Pipeline Regulations Pursuant to 
Energy Policy Act of 1992, Order No. 561-A, F.E.R.C. Stats. 
& Regs. (CCH) p 31,100 (1994) ("Order No. 561-A");  see also 

Association of Oil Pipe Lines v. FERC, 83 F.3d 1424, 1429-
30 (D.C. Cir. 1996) ("AOPL I").  After fixing as a baseline the 
pipeline rates that Congress deemed "just and reasonable" in 
the Energy Policy Act of 1992, Pub. L. No. 102-486, 106 Stat. 
2776, 3010 (1992) ("EPAct"), reprinted in 42 U.S.C. s 7172 
note, FERC determined to use an indexing scheme to make 
annual adjustments.

     The index initially picked was PPI-1.  FERC said that it 
was making this choice because, when compared to various 
alternatives, PPI-1 seemed to most closely track historical 
changes in actual pipeline costs.  Order No. 561 at 30,951/2.  
But FERC's choice of PPI-1 was not "for all time."  Order 
No. 561-A at 31,092-93.  To ensure continuing fit between 
the index and actual changes in industry costs, FERC as-
sured commentators that it would reexamine the index every 
five years.  Order No. 561 at 30,941/2.

     In 2000 FERC embarked on the first such reexamination.  
In its Notice of Inquiry it cited a Staff study purporting to 
show that "the changes in the PPI-1 Index have closely 
approximated the changes in the reported cost data for the oil 
pipeline industry during the five-year period covered by [the] 
review."  Notice of Inquiry, Five-Year Review of Oil Pipeline 
Pricing Index, 65 Fed. Reg. 47,358, at 47,361 (2000) (report-
ing Staff study results).  FERC invited comments.  The 
Association responded, claiming that the Staff study deviated 
from past methodology and was otherwise flawed.  Com-
ments of the Association of Oil Pipe Lines, Five-Year Review 
of Oil Pipeline Pricing Index, Docket No. RM00-11-000 
(Sept. 1, 2000) ("AOPL Comments").  It argued that the 
FERC Staff had improperly measured cost changes, had 
erroneously failed to remove statistical outliers, and had 
inexplicably altered its method for calculating capital costs.  
And it said that the Staff had failed to account for factors that 
would likely cause future cost changes to diverge from the 
historical trend.  In fact, it said, PPI was a more appropriate 
index than PPI-1.

     The Commission rejected the Association's arguments and 
issued the order now under review.  See 28 U.S.C. s 2344.

     1. Measurement of Cost Changes.  The Association's first 
contention is that FERC used an improper methodology in 
pursuing its stated intention to measure "actual cost changes 
experienced by the oil pipeline industry."  Order at 61,849/1;  
Order No. 561-A at 31,092/2;  see also Order No. 561 at 
30,952/2.  Many methods are available.  One possibility is to 
calculate the percentage cost change (per barrel-mile) for 
each individual firm and combine them in a simple average.  
Another is to combine the firm barrel-mile costs in an aver-
age weighted by volume, so that minor firms do not skew the 
result.  Another is to take the median of the distribution.  
We will refer to these methods respectively as the unweight-
ed average, the fixed-weight average, and the median.  As we 
shall see, there are other candidates as well.

     Orders Nos. 561/561-A substantially cited and relied on a 
study that reported the results of all three of the methods 
described above, as well as a composite figure that combined 
the three.  See Test. of Alfred E. Kahn, Revisions to Oil 
Pipeline Regulations Pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 
1992, Docket No. RM93-11-000 (Aug. 12, 1993), at 11 tbl.1 
("1993 Kahn Study").  The 1993-94 orders do not unambigu-
ously show which figure held a dominant position in FERC's 
reasoning.  The change in the composite for each of the three 
periods considered was fairly close to PPI-1.  Of the three 
types of averages making up the composite, the unweighted 
average was closest to the composite (and thus to the PPI-1 
figure ultimately selected).1

__________
     1 The 1993 Kahn Study, upon which Orders Nos. 561/561-A 
substantially relied, reported the following:

                                        1982-87       1987-92        1982-92
       Operating expenses and net plant
          Weighted average                0.82%          2.49%          1.24%
          Unweighted average              0.11%          1.27%          1.54%
          Median                              -0.26%        0.45%          0.85%
          Composite                  0.22%          1.40%          1.21%
          Producer Price Index           1.06%          3.17%          2.11%
     Differance from composite           0.84%          1.77%          0.90%
1993 Kahan Study, at 11 tbl.1.           In any event, we need not determine FERC's precise 
method in 1993 because the current order uses none of these 
previous methods.  Instead of calculating cost changes by 
individual firm and then averaging them by any of the 
methods used before, the 2000 FERC Staff report used what 
we may call a "floating-weight" average.  For each year in 
the period 1994-99 it took total costs for the entire industry, 
and divided it by the total number of barrel-miles shipped, 
yielding an annual average industry cost per barrel-mile.  
This produced an annual change, and the study found these 
annual changes to be a bit lower on average than the annual 
change in PPI-1.  Notice of Inquiry, 65 Fed. Reg. 47,359-60 
& tbl.1.

     We call this method a "floating-weight" average because it 
effectively weights each pipeline's per-barrel costs by that 
pipeline's volume.  In contrast, a fixed-weight average 
weights each firm's cost change by the firm's market share 
(in either the previous year or the current year).  As was 
shown by the pipelines' expert witness, Professor Alfred E. 
Kahn (interestingly, the expert relied on by the shippers in 
the 1993-94 round), a floating-weight average can yield odd 
results.  One curiosity, for example, is that such an average 
will include the costs of new entrants, even though, not 
having been in the market, they will have experienced no 
"change" in cost at all.

     More generally, changes in market share among partici-
pants can give an arguably distorted impression of cost 
changes.  Professor Kahn offered the following example:  
Suppose in Year 1, pipeline A's costs are $2 per barrel-mile, 
and its volume is 5 barrel-miles.  Pipeline B's costs are $0.50 
per barrel-mile, and its volume is 2 barrel-miles.  In Year 2, 
B's volume remains the same, but A's volume decreases to 4.  
In addition, from Year 1 to Year 2, both pipelines experience 
an increase in cost by 12.5% (i.e., their respective costs per 
barrel-mile increase from $2 to $2.25 for pipeline A and from 
$0.50 to $0.5625 for pipeline B).  Under a fixed-weight aver-
age, the average cost change is plainly 12.5%.  Under a 
floating-weight average, however, the calculated change in 

cost is only 7.6%.2  See Kahn Decl., Five Year Review of Oil 
Pipeline Pricing Index, Docket No. RM00-11-000 (Aug. 31, 
2000), at 7 ("2000 Kahn Study").  One can, of course, produce 
a more extreme hypothetical by adjusting the numbers, creat-
ing a scenario where all pipelines experience a uniform in-
crease in costs but the floating-weight average shows a de-
cline.

     FERC does not deny these peculiarities.  Instead, it makes 
several collateral arguments in support of its approach, all of 
which are unpersuasive.  First it responds that the Associa-
tion's claims of underestimation are simply the consequence 
of competition and the move by customers from higher-cost 
providers to lower-cost providers.  Order at 61,850 (arguing 
that the Association's results are "simply the natural working 
of the market forces at play, and does not show any distortion 
resulting from Staff's methodology").  Continuing, FERC 
argues that the Association's fixed-weight approach "would 
raise the price ceiling and thereby enable more high-cost 
pipelines to become or remain profitable."  Id.

     The problem with FERC's "competition" theory is that 
even if it were sound as a general matter (and FERC makes 
no effort to vindicate it), it presumes that all pipelines in the 
industry are close substitutes for each other.  But by all 
indications in the record, they are not.  Cf. Farmers Union 
Central Exchange, Inc. v. FERC, 734 F.2d 1486, 1508 n.50 
(D.C. Cir. 1984) (agreeing with the Justice Department that 
competition in the oil pipeline industry "must be evaluated in 
terms of discrete regional markets").  Indeed, if there were 
close competition between the pipelines, the reason for rate 
regulation--each pipeline's market power--would be missing.  
See id. at 1508 ("It is of course elementary that market 
failure and the control of monopoly power are central ratio-

__________
     2 This figure is calculated as follows:  Aggregate industry cost in 
Year 1 is [($2.00)*5 + ($0.50)*2] / 7 = $1.57 per barrel-mile.  
Aggregate industry cost in Year 2 is [($2.25)*4 + ($0.5625)*2] / 6 = 
$1.69 per barrel-mile.  The percentage change is ($1.69-$1.57) / 
$1.57 = 7.6%.

nales for the imposition of rate regulation.") (citing Stephen 
Breyer, Regulation and Its Reform 15-16 (1982)).

     Moreover, Professor Kahn offered data--uncontested by 
FERC--suggesting that the oil pipeline industry is divided 
between relatively high-cost crude oil pipelines ($0.013 per 
barrel-mile in 1999) and relatively low-cost "product" pipe-
lines (carrying refined products) ($0.0038 per barrel-mile).  
See Kahn Reply Decl., Five-Year Review of Oil Pipeline 
Pricing Index, Docket No. RM00-11-000 (Oct. 2, 2000), at 9.  
Indeed, both Professor Kahn and the expert for the shippers, 
Professor Frederic M. Scherer, refer to crude and product 
pipelines as separate markets.  Id. (discussing how demand 
for crude pipelines has declined, whereas it has risen for 
product pipelines);  Scherer Decl., Five-Year Review of Oil 
Pipeline Pricing Index, Docket No. RM00-11-000 (Aug. 28, 
2000), at 3-4 (noting that the two types of pipelines "face 
rather different demand conditions", and that there has been 
"conversion of some crude pipelines into product pipelines").  
If this is true, it seems entirely likely that the movement from 
higher-cost crude to lower-cost product pipelines has relative-
ly little to do with competition between them.

     In a similar vein, FERC suggests that its approach (with 
its resulting choice of a lower index) "emphasizes the ... 
efficiency-promoting (i.e., cost controlling) property ... of 
using an indexing system."  Order at 61,849/1.  There are 
two possible aspects to this assertion.  First, FERC may be 
claiming that its approach creates cost-controlling incentives.  
But the general theory behind price caps is that because they 
are largely disconnected from individual firm costs, a firm is 
not dissuaded from cost-cutting efforts by the prospect of 
seeing its ceiling lowered.  Order No. 561 at 30,948-49 n.37;  
see also Nat'l Rural Telecom Ass'n v. FCC, 988 F.2d 174, 178 
(D.C. Cir. 1993).  It is that disconnect, rather than the 
method of calculating price caps, that creates the good incen-
tives.  As Professor Kahn observed (partly facetiously), one 
could achieve the purpose by "relat[ing] the change in permis-
sible prices over time to a random table of numbers."  1993 
Kahn Study, at 4.

     The second possible meaning of FERC's efficiency-
promoting argument might be called the "survival" incentive.  
The prospect of imminent bankruptcy surely concentrates the 
mind.  But if this is the justification, it amounts to no more 
than the principle that "lower is better"--an argument that 
seems to have no end and little connection to any stated 
purpose.

     FERC further responds in its brief that even if the Associ-
ation's criticisms of its methodology are valid, its members 
can always resort to a safety valve built into FERC's rate 
adjustment scheme.  Specifically, under Orders Nos. 
561/561-A, a pipeline can file for "cost-of-service" rates based 
on itsindividualized costs if it "can demonstrate that there is a 
substantial divergence between the actual costs experienced 
by the pipeline and the indexed ceiling rate."  Order at 61,850 
n.35;  see also 18 C.F.R. s 342.4;  AOPL I, 83 F.3d at 1430-
31.  But by definition, a "safety valve" should only address 
aberrant cases, however broadly this class may be defined.  
See Order No. 561-A at 31,106-07 (expanding the circum-
stances under which cost-of-service ratemaking is permitted);  
Order No. 561 at 30,956-57 (same).  A safety valve cannot 
rescue FERC's indexing methodology from systemic errors, 
for then the exception would swallow the rule.  See Time 
Warner Entertainment Co. v. FCC, 56 F.3d 151, 173 (D.C. 
Cir. 1995) (refusing to allow FCC to invoke a cost-of-service 
option, "a limited 'safety-valve' exception," to justify its deci-
sion).  Furthermore, as FERC acknowledges, cost-of-service 
rate filings are "more cumbersome" and "more costly and 
time-consuming."  Respondent's Brief at 17.  And a regime 
based in large part on their use would be inconsistent with 
Congress's mandate under the EPAct for FERC to establish 
"a simplified and generally applicable ratemaking methodolo-
gy."  EPAct, at s 1801(a).

     Finally, FERC's counsel at oral argument sought to deflect 
Professor Kahn's criticisms by seeming to characterize him as 
some kind of economic Svengali.  Counsel said that he was 
"perfectly confident [that] no matter what method [FERC] 
had used, if Doctor Kahn wanted to come up with examples to 
make it look silly, he could have."  Oral Argument Tr. at 27.  

However flattering this may be to Professor Kahn, it is 
hardly a defense for FERC.  An expert's acknowledged skill 
is no basis for refusing to confront his analysis.

     The Commission's Order mentions a possible defense to its 
use of the "floating weight" methodology, in a passage that 
notes--but does not seem to rely on--an observation made by 
Professor Scherer in his rebuttal testimony on behalf of the 
shipper interests:

     In addition, Sinclair [via Scherer's declaration] notes that 
     AOPL's method is a fixed-weight approach formerly used 
     in the calculation of the Consumer Price Index but 
     recently discarded. This change occurred because the 
     fixed-weight approach ignored consumer substitution 
     from high-priced goods to low-priced goods, consequently 
     overestimating the amount of price inflation in the econo-
     my.
     
Order at 61,849.  But, as we said, the Commission did not 
actually rest its decision on this point, and that may explain 
why the Association's brief, and indeed that of the Commis-
sion, do not address it.  It is thus inappropriate for us to do 
so.

     In sum, FERC deviated from its previous methodology 
without any explanation responsive to the Association's objec-
tions.

     2. Statistical Outliers.  The Association next takes issue 
with FERC's refusal to remove statistical outliers in conduct-
ing its study.  Statistical outliers are data points so extreme 
as to raise a question whether they may be the result of 
recording or measurement errors or some other anomaly.  
For example, some pipelines may mistakenly report their 
volumes in barrels, rather than barrel-miles, resulting in 
errors of several orders of magnitude.  See, e.g., Notice of 
Inquiry, 65 Fed. Reg. at 47,361-62 app. A & tbl. (reporting 
six instances, such as a reported volume of 38 million barrels 
instead of 8.4 billion barrel-miles).  To minimize the risk that 
such extreme (and erroneous) observations will bias their 
results, statisticians commonly use only the middle portion 

(e.g., the middle 50% or 80%) of the dataset for their analy-
ses, Order at 61,852, or remove likely outliers in some other 
systematic way.

     In Orders Nos. 561/561-A, FERC relied significantly on 
Professor Kahn's 1993 analysis and defended that study's use 
of the middle 50% of the cost change dataset.  See Order No. 
561-A at 31,096;  see also 1993 Kahn Study, at 9.  In the 
current Order, however, FERC refused to adopt any similar 
removal of outliers.  See Order at 61,852.  The Association 
contends that FERC deviated from its previous methodology 
without adequate explanation.  We agree.

     FERC first suggests that Orders Nos. 561/561-A did not 
rely solely on the Kahn analysis, but also rested on an 
analysis by Dr. Robert C. Means, which did not exclude 
outliers and yet came to similar results.  See AOPL I, 83 
F.3d at 1434.  But Dr. Means used the entire dataset only 
after he adopted the corrections proposed by the Associa-
tion's expert.  See Test. of Robert C. Means, Revisions to Oil 
Pipeline Regulations Pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 
1992, Docket No. RM93-11-000 (Dec. 9, 1993) ("Means 
Study"), at 15-22;  see also id. at 16, 18 (describing Professor 
Kahn's methodology as a reasonable response under the 
circumstances).  And the Commission in 1993-94 stoutly de-
fended Professor Kahn's removal of outliers, observing the 
"median is, in fact, often preferred statistically as a measure 
of central tendency in cases where the distribution is highly 
skewed."  Order No. 561-A at 31,097.  The Commission 
further cited Dr. Means in defense of Professor Kahn's 
method.  Id.  Given that insistence by the Commission, it can 
hardly be freed from its conventional duty to explain a change 
in methodology just because the results of the two 1993-94 
methods--one removing outliers from an uncorrected study, 
and the other effecting no such removal from a corrected 
one--happened to coincide, especially as there is no indication 
that in 2000 there was any such systematic scouring of the 
data as that on which Dr. Means relied.  Although Appendix 
A of FERC's Notice of Inquiry appears to correct for instanc-
es where barrels had been used in lieu of barrel-miles, see 
Notice of Inquiry, 65 Fed. Reg. at 47,359 n.16, 47,361-62 

(Appendix A), those errors represent only one class of the 
errors that Dr. Means had corrected in 1993, see Verified 
Statement of John C. Klick, Revision to Oil Pipeline Regula-
tions Pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992, Docket No. 
RM93-11-000 (Nov. 22, 1993), at 17-18 (noting modifications 
of operating revenues, operating expenses, net plant, and 
barrel-mile data).

     FERC's principal objection to excluding outliers was that 
when the dataset was narrowed from the middle 100% to 90% 
to 80% to 50%, the average systematically increased.  Order 
at 61,852.  FERC found these increases "troubling" and thus 
opted to use the entire dataset.  Id.  To the extent that 
FERC refused to exclude outliers on the ground that doing so 
changed the result, it obviously missed the whole point:  the 
object of excluding outliers is to prevent extreme and spuri-
ous data from biasing an analysis, i.e., affecting its result 
adversely.  To the extent that FERC refused to adjust only 
because of the direction of the resulting change (upward 
rather than downward), refutation is (we hope) superfluous.

     Finally, FERC suggested that use of a complete dataset is 
preferable to "sampling."  See Order at 61,852/2 (drawing 
analogy to sampling contaminated dirt).  But the case for 
removal of outliers is independent of sampling.  There was no 
sampling here--the dataset, however replete with errors, was 
complete.  An objection to sampling was simply irrelevant to 
a claim that the errors called for removal of outliers.

     3. Changes in Net Plant.  The Association objects that 
FERC's Order estimated capital cost changes inaccurately 
and in an unexplained deviation from its earlier methodology.  
According to FERC, capital costs fall into four categories:  
depreciation, amortization, return on investment, and income 
taxes.  It is undisputed that FERC's Staff study accounted 
for depreciation and amortization.  The question revolves 
around return on investment and income taxes, which the 
Association argues should be approximated by using net 
plant.  FERC said that net plant was an imperfect measure 
and might distort the analysis.  Order at 61,853.  Stating that 
the two disputed elements of capital cost are relatively minor, 

FERC concluded that it should not be used.  Order at 
61,853-54.

     The problem for FERC is that in Orders Nos. 561/561-A, it 
specifically defended the use of net plant to calculate return 
on investment and income taxes.  Order No. 561-A at 31,098.  
Indeed, at the time, it was the Association that objected to 
net plant as inaccurate;  FERC conceded the imperfections of 
using net plant as a proxy, but then noted that the Associa-
tion offered no better solution.  Id.

     The Commission appears to suggest that Orders Nos. 
561/561-A may have used net plant to measure capital cost 
changes generally rather than just return on investment and 
income taxes.  If so, then FERC's argument that deprecia-
tion and amortization are a better measure than net plant 
would implicitly justify its dispensing with any use of net 
plant.  Parsing both Orders Nos. 561/561-A and the 2000 
Order, however, we believe that in the earlier orders FERC 
used net plant only for the narrow elements of investment 
and income taxes.  First, in calculating cost changes, FERC 
relies primarily on data from FERC Form No. 6 submissions, 
which according to the 2000 Order, include data on deprecia-
tion and amortization.  See Order at 61,852-53 (including 
depreciation and amortization under "general expenses," 
which is a subset of the "operating expenses" listed on Form 
No. 6).  In Orders Nos. 561/561-A, however, FERC referred 
to net plant as a "proxy."  Order No. 561-A at 31,098.  
Clearly, if direct data on depreciation and amortization were 
already available, no proxy for them would be needed.  Sec-
ond, Orders Nos. 561/561-A relied heavily on the 1993 Kahn 
Study, which explicitly used net plant to approximate only 
return on investment and income taxes.  See 1993 Kahn 
Study, at 15.

     Thus, having previously used changes in net plant for one 
purpose despite its imperfections, FERC turned around and 
relied on those very imperfections to reject its use.  It has 
offered no explanation for the change.

     4. Index Adjustments.  Finally, the Association chal-
lenges FERC's refusal to consider two factors that it believes 

help undermine the case for PPI-1, factors it believes render 
exclusive reliance on the past six-year period inappropriate.  
First, it proposed an adjustment for the one-time productivity 
gains that the pipelines likely experienced as a result of 
Orders Nos. 561/561-A's change to incentive-based regula-
tion.  Prior to those orders, FERC regulated the industry 
using a rate-of-return scheme, which tended to dull the 
pipelines' incentive to reduce costs.  Indeed, under some not 
implausible assumptions, pipelines had perverse incentives to 
"gold-plate" facilities, as all costs reasonably incurred in one 
period form a basis for raising rate ceilings in the next.  Cf. 
Nat'l Rural Telecom, 988 F.2d at 177-78.  The price-cap 
approach tends to diminish this dulling effect.  Year-to-year 
rate increases are based on the index, and the index in turn is 
based on industrywide experience;  so no one pipeline's cost 
experience has much impact on the caps to which it is subject.  
The Association argues that the historical cost changes ob-
served in the years immediately following Orders Nos. 
561/561-A were artificially depressed because of these one-
time cost savings, and thus any modeling of future costs 
should control for them.  See 2000 Kahn Study, at 23-24.

     The Association's second proposed adjustment was for an-
ticipated future cost increases due to increased environmental 
and safety regulations.  Among other things, the Association 
cites new Department of Transportation regulations imposing 
more elaborate employee training, increased safety testing, 
and design changes.  AOPL Comments, at 15-16.

     Though they may seem distinct, the two adjustments essen-
tially require FERC to perform the same task--to predict 
how future cost changes may deviate from the historical 
trend.  FERC has refused to engage in such speculation, and 
we cannot find FERC's refusal arbitrary or capricious.  Con-
sistent with its congressional mandate to establish "a simpli-
fied and generally applicable ratemaking methodology," 
EPAct, at s 1801(a), FERC opted for a purely historical 
analysis and has adhered to it.  See Order at 61,855;  Order 
No. 561 at 30,951 (choosing PPI-1 because it came "closest of 
all the indices considered ... to tracking the historical 
changes in the actual costs of the product pipeline industry" 

(emphasis added)).  FERC's approach is thus unlike the one 
described in United States Telephone Ass'n v. FCC, 188 F.3d 
521 (D.C. Cir. 1999).  There the agency (the FCC), in calcu-
lating the year-to-year change index for the first period 
covered by a rate cap, had lopped 0.5% off the historic trend 
line in anticipation of special productivity gains expected to 
flow from the switch to rate caps.  Id. at 527.  We thus found 
unexplained the agency's continuing to lop the 0.5%, as the 
benefits of the one-time shift could hardly be expected to go 
on forever.  Id.  As Orders Nos. 561/561-A employed no 
forward-looking methodology, and the agency appears to have 
reasonably declined to embroil itself in the complexity and 
iffiness of such a method, we have no basis for expecting it to 
adopt such a method now.

                              * * *

     In summary, we conclude that FERC has neither ade-
quately addressed the Association's concerns over floating-
weight averaging, nor in the alternative has it articulated 
reasons for changing its averaging methodology.  In addition, 
FERC failed to justify its methodological shifts regarding 
outliers and the use of net plant between Orders Nos. 
561/561-A and the current order.  We find, however, that 
FERC's refusal to adjust its index for past one-time produc-
tivity gains and anticipated future regulatory costs is consis-
tent with past practice and is reasonable.

     Accordingly, we remand the case to FERC for its further 
consideration of the first three issues, but affirm as to the 
last.  We do not vacate, however, because it is unclear 
whether the remanded issues will change FERC's cost data 
analysis sufficiently to render the selection of PPI-1 inappro-
priate.

                                                                 So ordered.