Ouber v. Guarino

          United States Court of Appeals
                      For the First Circuit

No. 01-2390

                          BARBARA OUBER,

                      Petitioner, Appellee,

                                v.

                         BARBARA GUARINO,

                      Respondent, Appellant.


          APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT

                FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS

         [Hon. Reginald C. Lindsay, U.S. District Judge]


                              Before

                       Selya, Circuit Judge,

                   Stahl, Senior Circuit Judge,

                    and Lynch, Circuit Judge.


     Linda A. Wagner, Assistant Attorney General, Commonwealth of
Massachusetts, with whom Thomas F. Reilly, Attorney General, was on
brief, for appellant.
     John Updegraph, with whom John Andrews, Robert M. Strasnick,
and Andrews & Koufman, LLC, were on brief, for appellee.



                          June 17, 2002
           SELYA,       Circuit    Judge.     After   a     Massachusetts     jury

convicted petitioner-appellee Barbara Ouber on a drug-trafficking

charge, she exhausted her state-court remedies and then sought

habeas corpus relief in the federal district court.                 That court

granted the writ. The Commonwealth's ensuing appeal raises nuanced

questions concerning the interplay between the proper resolution of

claims   asserting       ineffective    assistance     of    counsel    and    the

deferential standard of review imposed upon federal habeas courts

by the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act (AEDPA), Pub.

L. No. 104-132, 110 Stat. 1214 (1996).                Although our reasoning

differs significantly from the district court's as to the prejudice

component of the ineffective assistance test, we agree that habeas

relief is appropriate in the unique circumstances of this case.

I.   BACKGROUND

           To     put    matters    into     perspective,     we   recount     the

background facts, the case's procedural history, the genesis of the

petitioner's conviction (including a précis of the evidence adduced

at trial), and what transpired thereafter.

           The petitioner and her brother (Nick Tsoleridas) resided

at 9 Beth Lane in Hyannis, Massachusetts.                 On January 25, 1992,

Todd   Shea,    an    undercover    narcotics    agent,      accompanied      by   a

confidential informant (CI), went to that address.                     Tsoleridas

greeted them.        He and the CI then went into the house.            Shea was

told to wait in the car.


                                       -2-
          The CI emerged alone.        He and Shea waited for Tsoleridas

(a suspected drug dealer).       After some time had elapsed, the two

men grew impatient and approached the front door.          The petitioner

was standing just inside the entrance and Tsoleridas was descending

from upstairs.   Shea said something to the effect that he wanted to

look at "the package" before turning over any money.            Tsoleridas

escorted his visitors outside, saying that he did not want to

"deal" in the house.    After the three men drove a short distance,

Tsoleridas sold Shea an ounce of cocaine for $1,100.           He also gave

Shea his cell phone number and told him that he could supply much

larger quantities.

          Tsoleridas delivered comparable amounts of cocaine to

Shea on February 19 and March 2.            At approximately 4:40 p.m. on

March 8, Shea called Tsoleridas and indicated that he wished to

purchase ten ounces of cocaine.        Tsoleridas tried to persuade Shea

to come to Boston to consummate the transaction.                 When Shea

demurred, Tsoleridas offered to supply two ounces to tide him over,

and told him to come to the parking lot of Bud's Country Lounge in

Hyannis where Tsoleridas's sister would exchange the drugs for

$2,000.

          Shea testified that the transaction occurred as follows.

He reached the parking lot at the appointed time.               He saw the

petitioner   arrive,   driving    a    Toyota.     When   he   entered   the

passengers' side of the Toyota, the petitioner identified herself


                                      -3-
as Tsoleridas's sister and handed him two sealed envelopes.          Shea

asked if this was the same "coke" as before and if the envelopes

aggregated the agreed quantity.         After receiving an affirmative

response, he gave the petitioner $2,000. She counted the money and

dropped the bills on the floor of the Toyota.     Meanwhile Shea broke

the seals, withdrew a clear plastic bag from inside each envelope,

and inspected the contents.       He then debarked, entered his own

vehicle, and departed with the contraband.

          At the time of the transaction, the parking lot was

deserted except for two law enforcement officers who were observing

from a distance.     They saw very little.      One of them testified,

however, that he watched the Toyota enter the parking lot and leave

a few minutes after Shea exited the vehicle.

          On March 13, Tsoleridas sold Shea the ten ounces of

cocaine   that   Shea   had   "ordered."     Shortly   thereafter,    the

authorities searched the house at 9 Beth Lane and found drugs,

large sums of cash, and drug-related paraphernalia. The petitioner

was present during the search.     When she asked to see the warrant,

however, the officers claimed to have lost it.

           A Barnstable County grand jury subsequently indicted both

Tsoleridas and the petitioner for trafficking in cocaine.             See

Mass. Gen. Laws ch. 94C, § 32E(b).       The petitioner was tried on a

single charge, based upon her alleged complicity in the March 8

transaction.     She stood trial alone (Tsoleridas having fled the


                                  -4-
country).    Shea and the petitioner were the main witnesses, and

they gave sharply conflicting accounts as to what had occurred

inside the Toyota.

            Shea's testimony was along the lines described above.

The petitioner, however, testified that she knew nothing of the

drugs, but had been coerced by her brother into doing what she

thought was a non-drug-related errand for him. Her version of what

happened in the Toyota differed from Shea's in no fewer than four

crucial respects.    She denied having handed Shea the envelopes,

saying that he removed them from the right front seat.     She also

denied that she and Shea had the conversation he described (or any

conversation relating, directly or indirectly, to cocaine).     She

denied that she counted the money, instead saying that Shea threw

it at her (with the result that the bills fluttered to the floor of

the Toyota).     And, finally, she denied that Shea opened the

envelopes or inspected their contents in her presence.

            To buttress this account, the defense presented the

testimony of the petitioner's friend, Patricia Gisleson.   Gisleson

testified that she was at the petitioner's home on March 8 and

overheard Tsoleridas and the petitioner arguing. Tsoleridas wanted

her to deliver two envelopes for him.        After the petitioner

succumbed to Tsoleridas's bullying, Gisleson helped to move the

petitioner's Toyota out of the garage. In the process, she noticed

that Tsoleridas had placed two sealed envelopes on the front


                                -5-
passenger's seat.       The petitioner then drove away.          Gisleson was

still at 9 Beth Lane when the petitioner returned.             The petitioner

seemed very upset.

              Due to the fact that the search party had been unable to

display   a    warrant,    a   suppression    order    issued.        Thus,   the

Commonwealth could not introduce the evidence seized in the house

search during its case in chief.           After the petitioner testified,

however, the trial justice allowed the Commonwealth to introduce

that evidence for impeachment purposes.               Following arguments of

counsel   and    the    court's   charge,    the   jurors   could     not   reach

agreement and the trial justice declared a mistrial.

              The Commonwealth elected to retry the petitioner.               Much

the same proof scenario obtained at the second trial, except that

Gisleson's testimony was much more detailed.                She stated, inter

alia, that Tsoleridas had slapped the petitioner when she initially

refused to do his bidding.        She also elaborated on the reason that

Tsoleridas gave for wanting the petitioner to run the errand:                  the

man she was to meet owed him money, and she was to give the man

some   drill     bits   and    collect   $2,000.       Then,   too,    Gisleson

volunteered that the petitioner had told her that, when she met

Shea, he had thrown the money at her.              Despite Gisleson's more

expansive testimony, the jury deadlocked once again.




                                     -6-
           This brings us to the third trial.     Because of their

relationship to the issues on appeal, we describe the events that

played out during this trial in greater detail.

           As the third trial began,1 the petitioner's counsel — the

selfsame lawyer who had represented her at the two earlier trials

— elected to deliver his opening statement on the heels of the

prosecutor's opening.   In the course of this statement, the lawyer

promised — not once, but four times — that the petitioner would

testify.   In the bargain, the lawyer emphasized the importance of

this testimony.   He pointed out that the case revolved around the

petitioner's knowledge (or lack of knowledge) that the envelopes

delivered to Shea contained cocaine, and that her version of the

relevant events — particularly those that transpired in the car —

was very different from Shea's.    Counsel's peroration drove home

these points.   He told the jurors:

                  The case is going to come down to what
           happened in that car and what your findings
           are as you listen to the credibility and the
           testimony of Todd Shea versus what you[r]
           findings are as you listen to the testimony of
           Barbara Ouber.
                  . . . .
                  . . . .      You're going to hear a
           difference of opinion as to whether [the
           envelopes] were handed to Mr. Shea, whether he



     1
      The ground rules vis-à-vis the illegally seized evidence were
essentially the same as for the first two trials, that is, the
trial justice ruled that the Commonwealth could introduce evidence
from the search only if the petitioner testified (and then, only
for impeachment purposes).

                                -7-
               opened them in front of her; and as to the
               conversation.
                      And you're going to have to decide the
               truth and veracity of those two witnesses; and
               that will be your ultimate decision in this
               case.

               As in the earlier trials, the Commonwealth's case in

chief hinged on Shea's testimony.              His direct examination yielded

the    version    of    the   transaction      described   above.         On   cross-

examination defense counsel brought out a few inconsistencies

(e.g., that Shea originally had claimed that the envelopes were

unsealed when he received them whereas he now admitted that they

were    sealed).        Defense   counsel      also    attempted     to   show   that

Tsoleridas's actions on the occasion of Shea's first visit to 9

Beth Lane indicated that Tsoleridas was trying to conceal his drug

trafficking from the petitioner.

               Up to a point, the defense case seemed similar to that

presented in the previous trials.                The defense paraded a large

number of character witnesses before the jury, including an Eastern

Orthodox       bishop   and    several    priests       from   the    petitioner's

community.       These witnesses were unanimous in attesting to the

petitioner's good character and reputation for veracity.                   A number

of them did double duty, declaring that Tsoleridas was abusive and

domineering insofar as his sister was concerned.                     Gisleson also

testified along the same lines as at the second trial — although

she    again    added   new   details.         These   embellishments      included

testimony that Tsoleridas had threatened to kill the petitioner if

                                         -8-
she did not go to meet Shea; that the petitioner told Gisleson,

after she returned, that the man she met had tried to get her to

enter his vehicle; and that the petitioner never touched the

envelopes.2

          The trial then veered dramatically from the previous

iterations.   Although the petitioner had testified in both of the

earlier trials, this time around the defense rested without calling

her as a witness.   Closing arguments followed.     In his summation,

the petitioner's attorney apologized for not presenting "more of a

case" as he had promised, but opined that elements of Shea's and

Gisleson's testimony supported a claim that the petitioner lacked

knowledge of the envelopes' contents.      The prosecutor responded

that Shea's testimony, taken as a whole, showed that the petitioner

was fully aware that the envelopes contained cocaine, and that

there was no reason to doubt his credibility.          The prosecutor

contrasted this testimony with Gisleson's, which, he argued, had

been tailored to protect the petitioner.

          Jury   deliberations   began   that   afternoon,   but   court

adjourned without a verdict.       Deliberations resumed the next



     2
      During the second trial, the defense, apparently anticipating
that the previously suppressed evidence garnered during the
warrantless search would be used to impeach the petitioner, brought
out some information concerning that evidence on Gisleson's direct
examination. During the third trial, defense counsel spurned this
tactic, but the prosecution was able to bring before the jury, in
the course of Gisleson's cross-examination, essentially the same
information.

                                 -9-
morning.   Sounding a familiar refrain, the jurors soon reported

that they were deadlocked.       The trial justice urged them to

deliberate further, giving them a supplemental instruction based on

Commonwealth v. Rodriguez, 300 N.E.2d 192, 202-03 (Mass. 1973)

(suggesting suitable language for a "dynamite" charge). Later that

day, the jury found the petitioner guilty as charged.

           The   petitioner   moved     for   a   new   trial   based   on

ineffectiveness of counsel.     To understand the etiology of that

claim, we must explore the genesis of the petitioner's decision not

to testify.   We glean the relevant facts, as did the state courts,

primarily from affidavits submitted by the petitioner and her trial

attorney in support of the ineffectiveness of counsel claim.

           The third trial lasted only two days.        According to the

lawyer, he first focused on the possibility of withholding the

petitioner's testimony on the evening of the first day (after the

Commonwealth had rested). A discussion took place in which several

priests and other friends of the petitioner participated.               The

petitioner apparently wanted to testify, but the lawyer persuaded

her that it would be in her best interest not to do so.3                The

following day, the lawyer conferred privately with the petitioner,

but on the record (i.e., in the presence of a court reporter), so

that the petitioner could confirm that she had decided not to


     3
      The priests assisted in this endeavor, but the petitioner
claims, without contradiction, that the priests were merely
advocating for the position that the lawyer espoused.

                                 -10-
testify.       The affidavits and the record of that lobby conference

make clear, however, that counsel's earlier promises to the jury

were not discussed, and that the petitioner was never advised that

her decision to refrain from testifying might be counterproductive

in light of those promises.               This confluence of factors — the

decision    to    withhold      the   petitioner's   testimony      after   having

emphasized its importance and having repeatedly promised the jurors

that    they     would   hear    it   —   constituted   the   essence       of   the

petitioner's ineffective assistance claim.

               The state courts were unreceptive to the petitioner's

plea.    The trial justice denied the motion for a new trial, and the

Massachusetts Appeals Court affirmed the trial justice's order.

See Commonwealth v. Ouber, 707 N.E.2d 408 (Mass. App. Ct. 1999)

(table).       The appellate court concluded that the petitioner's

lawyer approached the question of whether she should testify

"cautiously" and advised her to remain silent because she likely

would suffer grievously in cross-examination. Because the attorney

was "working with an intrinsically weak defense," the court,

applying the test articulated in Commonwealth v. Saferian, 315

N.E.2d     878,     882-83      (Mass.     1974),    found    his    performance

constitutionally acceptable.              As a fallback, the court observed

that the attorney's advice did not prejudice the petitioner because

the evidence against her was solid and the jury had been instructed

not to draw a negative inference from her silence.               The court made


                                          -11-
only a passing reference to the promises contained in counsel's

opening statement, characterizing them as neither "dramatic" nor

"memorable." The court added that, when the petitioner decided not

to testify, she knew what the consequences would be because she had

been through two trials and "[a]n inference about the jury's

possible attitude would not be remote or difficult."

              In due course, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court

(SJC) denied further appellate review.           Commonwealth v. Ouber, 709

N.E.2d 1120 (Mass. 1999) (table).         The petitioner then repaired to

the federal district court and prosecuted an application for a writ

of   habeas    corpus   against   the    appropriate    state   correctional

official.      See 28 U.S.C. § 2254.       The district court found the

Appeals Court's decision to be an unreasonable application of the

standard articulated in Strickland v. Washington, 466 U.S. 668, 687

(1984).   See Ouber v. Guarino, 158 F. Supp. 2d 135, 149 (D. Mass.

2001).    In the district court's view, the state court improperly

focused on a peripheral matter — whether the petitioner was (or was

not) fully informed about her right to testify when she decided to

remain    silent    —   and    brushed   aside    the   critical   error    in

professional judgment:         making a promise to the jury and then

breaking it.     Id. at 150.    The court found it unreasonable that the

Appeals Court did not evaluate the attorney's advice in light of

the initial promises that had been communicated to the jury.               Id.

at 153.       On this basis, the court concluded that the lawyer's


                                    -12-
actions fell below the Strickland benchmark and that the state

court's   application     of     Strickland's    performance     prong     was

unreasonable.    Id. at 154.      To cap matters, the court found that

the state court had applied the wrong test as to prejudice and

concluded that prejudice should be presumed in this case.            See id.

at 155.   The court then went a step further and found, in the

alternative, that the lawyer's error was outcome-determinative.

Id. at 155-56.

           Consistent     with   these   findings,     the   district    court

ordered the petitioner relieved from her sentence unless the

Commonwealth vacated her conviction and afforded her a new trial

within a stipulated time frame.            See id. at 156.       This appeal

ensued.   The petitioner has remained free on bail pending the

outcome of the habeas proceeding.

II.   THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK

           As said, this appeal turns on the interplay between the

constitutional standard articulated in Strickland and the limited

review permitted by the AEDPA in habeas cases.           We comment on each

of these elements.

                     A.   The Strickland Doctrine.

           The   controlling     principles     for   deciding   ineffective

assistance of counsel claims are limned in Strickland. Under these

principles, a defendant alleging ineffective assistance of counsel

must establish two elements in order to prevail:


                                    -13-
          First, the defendant must show that counsel's
          performance was deficient.      This requires
          showing that counsel made errors so serious
          that counsel was not functioning as the
          "counsel" guaranteed the defendant by the
          Sixth Amendment. Second, the defendant must
          show that the deficient performance prejudiced
          the defense.

Strickland, 466 U.S. at 687.

          As     to    the    first    element,    "[j]udicial    scrutiny   of

counsel's performance must be highly deferential."                 Id. at 689.

The practice of law is not a mechanical exercise (like, say,

kicking a foot press), and an inquiring court must leave ample room

for variations in professional judgment.             See id.     By like token,

a reviewing court must not lean too heavily on hindsight:                     a

lawyer's acts and omissions must be judged on the basis of what he

knew, or should have known, at the time his tactical choices were

made and implemented.          Bell v. Cone, 122 S. Ct. 1843, ___ (2002)

[2002 U.S. LEXIS 4020, at *24 (May 28, 2002)]; United States v.

Natanel, 938 F.2d 302, 309 (1st Cir. 1991).               Only if, "in light of

all the circumstances, the [alleged] acts or omissions of counsel

were   outside    the        wide   range     of   professionally    competent

assistance,"     can    a    finding    of    deficient    performance   ensue.

Strickland, 466 U.S. at 690.

          The second Strickland element ensures that, even if a

lawyer's performance is constitutionally unacceptable, relief will

be withheld unless the quondam client has demonstrated that "there

is a reasonable probability that, but for counsel's unprofessional

                                       -14-
errors, the result of the proceeding would have been different."

Id. at 694.     While this level of prejudice may be presumed in a few

settings, id. at 692, that is the exception, not the rule.            For the

most part, the petitioner must carry the devoir of persuasion and

prove that he was prejudiced, i.e., that his attorney's parlous

conduct may have altered the outcome of the case.               See Smith v.

Robbins, 528 U.S. 259, 285-86 (2000).          In this regard, we caution

that, although the possibility of a different outcome must be

substantial in order to establish prejudice, it may be less than

fifty percent. See Strickland, 466 U.S. at 693 (explaining that "a

defendant need not show that counsel's deficient conduct more

likely than not altered the outcome in the case").

                         B.    The AEDPA Standard.

              Under the AEDPA, a federal court may grant habeas relief

to a state prisoner only if the state court adjudication

                     (1) resulted in a decision that was
              contrary to, or involved an unreasonable
              application of, clearly established Federal
              law, as determined by the Supreme Court of the
              United States; or
                     (2) resulted in a decision that was
              based on an unreasonable determination of the
              facts in light of the evidence presented in
              the state court proceeding.

28 U.S.C. § 2254(d).

              A state-court decision fits within the "contrary to"

rubric   if    the   state   court   either   applies   a   legal   rule   that

contradicts an established Supreme Court precedent or reaches a


                                     -15-
different result on facts materially indistinguishable from those

of a controlling Supreme Court precedent.           Williams v. Taylor, 529

U.S. 362, 405-06 (2000).            Where a relevant but not factually

congruent precedent exists, the state court need only apply a test

consistent with the one announced by the Supreme Court in order to

avoid the toils of section 2254(d)(1)'s "contrary to" clause.

             The    "unreasonable    application"    component    of   section

2254(d)(1) comes into play when the state court identifies the

correct legal principle, but unreasonably applies that principle to

the facts of the prisoner's case.             Williams, 529 U.S. at 407-08.

The "unreasonable application" clause also encompasses situations

in   which   a     state   court   either    unreasonably   extends    a   legal

principle derived from Supreme Court precedent to an inappropriate

context or unreasonably refuses to extend that principle to an

appropriate context.         Id.   In all events, a state-court decision

must be unreasonable, as opposed to merely incorrect, before a

federal court can grant habeas relief.            Id. at 410.

             The AEDPA also requires that the relevant legal rule be

clearly established in a Supreme Court holding, rather than in

dictum or in holdings of lower federal courts.              Id. at 412.    This

does not mean, however, that other federal court decisions are

wholly irrelevant to the reasonableness determination.                 "To the

extent that inferior federal courts have decided factually similar

cases, reference to those decisions is appropriate in assessing the


                                      -16-
reasonableness vel non of the state court's treatment of the

contested issue."    O'Brien v. Dubois, 145 F.3d 16, 25 (1st Cir.

1998).   Reference to such cases may be especially helpful when the

governing Supreme Court precedent articulates a broad principle

that applies to a wide variety of factual patterns.

           So it is here.    The Strickland principles for deciding

ineffective assistance of counsel claims are "clearly established"

for purposes of the AEDPA.       See Williams, 529 U.S. at 371-74.

Because the Supreme Court has yet to adopt more particularized

guidelines for ineffectiveness of counsel claims, it is helpful to

examine precedents from lower federal courts to determine how the

general standard applies to a particular set of facts.              Although

such decisions are not themselves binding on a state court under

the AEDPA framework, see id. at 412, resort to them is appropriate

for the purpose of discerning the requirements of Strickland in

factually similar cases.        See Mountjoy v. Warden, N.H. State

Prison, 245 F.3d 31, 35-36 (1st Cir. 2001).

           Another   category   of    state-court   errors   that    may   be

remedied   on   federal     habeas      review   involves    unreasonable

determinations of fact.     See 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(2).        Under this

standard, the state court's factual findings are entitled to a

presumption of correctness that can be rebutted only by clear and

convincing evidence to the contrary. Mastracchio v. Vose, 274 F.3d

590, 597-98 (1st Cir. 2001).           But the special prophylaxis of


                                     -17-
section    2254(d)(2)     applies      only     to   determinations   of   "basic,

primary, or historical facts."             Sanna v. DiPaolo, 265 F.3d 1, 7

(1st Cir. 2001).       Inferences, characterizations of the facts, and

mixed fact/law conclusions are more appropriately analyzed under

the "unreasonable application" prong of section 2254(d)(1).                     Cf.

Townsend v. Sain, 372 U.S. 293, 309 n.6 (1963) (stating that mixed

questions of fact and law do not fall within the purview of section

2254(d)(2)); Sanna, 265 F.3d at 7 (suggesting that only witness

credibility and recitals of external events qualify as basic or

primary facts for purposes of section 2254(d)(2)).                    Inasmuch as

"both     the    performance     and    the     prejudice    components    of   the

ineffectiveness inquiry are mixed questions of law and fact" for

the purposes of federal habeas review, Strickland, 466 U.S. at 698,

section 2254(d)(2) is of limited utility in this case.

III.    ANALYSIS

            Consistent with the Strickland paradigm, we divide our

analysis into two parts:          performance and prejudice.

                                 A.    Performance.

                At the heart of this appeal lies a broken promise (or,

more    precisely     put,   a   series    of    broken     promises):     defense

counsel's repeated vow that the jurors would hear what happened

from the petitioner herself. Thus, the error attributed to counsel

consists of two inextricably intertwined events:                  the attorney's

initial decision to present the petitioner's testimony as the


                                         -18-
centerpiece of the defense (and his serial announcement of that

fact to the jury in his opening statement) in conjunction with his

subsequent decision to advise the petitioner against testifying.

Taken alone, each of these decisions may have fallen within the

broad   universe   of   acceptable   professional   judgments.   Taken

together, however, they are indefensible.     Neither the state court

nor the Commonwealth has managed to identify any benefit to be

derived from such a decisional sequence, and we are unable to see

the combination as part and parcel of a reasoned strategy.          We

therefore conclude that, in the absence of unforeseeable events

forcing a change in strategy, the sequence constituted an error in

professional judgment.      Cf. Anderson v. Butler, 858 F.2d 16, 19

(1st Cir. 1988) (finding a mistake, rather than a strategic choice,

where nothing could be gained from counsel's approach).

           This assessment does not end our inquiry.       The complex

dynamics of trial engender numerous missteps, but only the most

inexcusable will support a finding that counsel's performance was

so substandard as to compromise a defendant's Sixth Amendment right

to proficient legal representation.      See, e.g., Nix v. Whiteside,

475 U.S. 157, 164-65 (1986) (quoting Strickland, 466 U.S. at 687).

To separate wheat from chaff — lapses of constitutional dimension

from garden-variety bevues — we must assess the gravity of the

error and then consider potential justifications for the attorney's

actions, given what he knew or should have known at each relevant


                                 -19-
moment in time.        See Natanel, 938 F.2d at 309.       And, finally,

because this case comes to us on habeas review, we must examine the

reasonableness    of    the   state-court   conclusion    that   counsel's

performance was not constitutionally deficient.          We turn to these

interrelated tasks.

          It is apodictic that a defendant cannot be compelled to

testify in a criminal case, see U.S. Const. amend. V, and criminal

juries routinely are admonished — as was the jury here — not to

draw an adverse inference from a defendant's failure to testify.

But the defendant has the right to testify in her own defense, and,

when such testimony is proffered, the impact on the jury can hardly

be overestimated.      See Green v. United States, 365 U.S. 301, 304

(1961) ("The most persuasive counsel may not be able to speak for

a defendant as the defendant might, with halting eloquence, speak

for himself.").     When a jury is promised that it will hear the

defendant's story from the defendant's own lips, and the defendant

then reneges, common sense suggests that the course of trial may be

profoundly altered. A broken promise of this magnitude taints both

the lawyer who vouchsafed it and the client on whose behalf it was

made.

          The Commonwealth argues that a defendant's decision about

whether to invoke the right to remain silent is a strategic choice,

requiring a balancing of risks and benefits.              Under ordinary

circumstances, that is true.       It is easy to imagine that, on the


                                   -20-
eve of trial, a thoughtful lawyer may remain unsure as to whether

to call the defendant as a witness.            If such uncertainty exists,

however, it is an abecedarian principle that the lawyer must

exercise some degree of circumspection.               Had the petitioner's

counsel temporized — he was under no obligation to make an opening

statement   at   all,   much   less    to    open   before   the   prosecution

presented its    case, and, even if he chose to open, he most

assuredly did not have to commit to calling his client as a witness

— this would be a different case.            See Phoenix v. Matesanz, 233

F.3d 77, 85 (1st Cir. 2000) (finding no ineffectiveness where, in

the absence of an express promise, counsel chose not to call a

potentially important witness).

            Here, however, the circumstances were far from ordinary.

The petitioner's counsel elected to make his opening statement at

the earliest possible time.           He did not hedge his bets, but,

rather, acted as if he had no doubt about whether his client should

testify. In the course of his opening statement, he promised, over

and over, that the petitioner would testify and exhorted the jurors

to draw their ultimate conclusions based on her credibility.                In

fine, the lawyer structured the entire defense around the prospect

of the petitioner's testimony.4


     4
      Counsel's subsequent actions reinforced this perception.             He
called twenty-four character witnesses who testified as to                the
petitioner's reputation for veracity.     This procession set             the
stage for her testimony by enhancing her credibility. When she            did
not testify, this stage-setting quite likely intensified                  the

                                      -21-
            In the end, however, the petitioner's testimony was not

forthcoming.     Despite the fact that the lawyer had called the

petitioner to the stand in both prior trials, he did a complete

about-face.     The lawyer states in his affidavit that he only

realized that keeping his client off the witness stand was an

option after the first day of trial.     This realization came much

too late.      Indeed, the attorney's delayed reaction is sharply

reminiscent of the situation in Anderson, in which we observed that

even "if it was . . . wise [not to have the witness testify]

because of the damaging collateral evidence, it was inexcusable to

have given the matter so little thought at the outset as to have

made the opening promise."     858 F.2d at 18.

            The Commonwealth argues that defense counsel's mid-trial

decision should be excused as a justified reaction to unfolding

events. The theoretical underpinnings for this argument are sound:

unexpected developments sometimes may warrant changes in previously

announced trial strategies.     See, e.g., Dutton v. Brown, 812 F.2d

593, 598 (10th Cir. 1987).     But although we cannot fault counsel

for not guarding against the unforeseeable, the case at hand does

not fit that description.       Here, everything went according to

schedule; nothing occurred during the third trial that could have

blindsided a reasonably competent attorney or justified a retreat

from a promise previously made. After all, the petitioner's lawyer


negative impact on the jury.

                                 -22-
had represented       her   during    two    previous    trials      for    the    same

offense;     the   prosecution's          case   in   chief    did     not      differ

significantly at the third trial; and the situation that confronted

the attorney when he changed his mind about the desirability of

presenting the petitioner's testimony was no different from the

situation that existed at a comparable stage of the earlier trials.

           The     Commonwealth      suggests     that   the   tenor       of   Shea's

testimony justified counsel's last-minute change of heart.                      Shea's

testimony, it says, was stronger and more consistent this time

around.    The record belies this claim; it shows beyond hope of

contradiction that the new wrinkles in Shea's testimony were of

marginal significance. Some uncertainties were clarified on direct

examination in preparation for the defense's cross-questioning, but

this slight tightening-up of the prosecution's case should readily

have been anticipated.       What is more, even if Shea's testimony was

less vulnerable than originally predicted, it remains a mystery

why, in response to adverse evidence that proves stronger than

expected, a lawyer should decide to abandon the only available

avenue of controverting it.

           The Commonwealth has another arrow in its quiver:                         it

asserts that, had the petitioner testified, she would have been

heavily impeached (and, thus, the decision not to testify was a

legitimate    one).     Because      of    the   damaging     evidence      that    was

available for impeachment had the petitioner testified — the drugs


                                       -23-
and cash found in the search — this argument has a patina of

plausibility.        The difficulty, however, is that counsel knew of

this sword of Damocles — the threat that the impeaching evidence

would be introduced — when he made his opening statement.5            Indeed,

that evidence was used to cross-examine the petitioner during the

two prior trials, and counsel appeared ready, willing, and able to

handle that contingency.

               The   Commonwealth   next    argues   that    enough   of   the

petitioner's story was presented through Gisleson that counsel

reasonably could have advised the petitioner not to testify.               This

is little more than whistling past the graveyard. Gisleson was not

present when Shea and the petitioner met on March 8, and so could

only relate what she saw and heard before the petitioner left the

house    and    after   the   petitioner    returned.       Thus,   Gisleson's

testimony, on its own, neither provided an adequate defense for the

petitioner nor fulfilled the explicit promises made to the jury in

the lawyer's opening statement.6


     5
      The fact of the matter is that the lawyer alluded to the
evidence that would be adduced for impeachment purposes in his
opening statement, cautioning the jury to keep in mind that such
evidence would be admitted only for a limited purpose.
     6
      To be sure, Gisleson related some of what the petitioner
allegedly had told her about the events that occurred in the
parking lot. Her testimony, however, failed to contradict Shea's
on three crucial issues:     whether there was any conversation
regarding the contents of the envelopes, whether he opened the
envelopes in front of the petitioner, and whether the latter
counted the money in his presence.      At any rate, Gisleson's
testimony about the petitioner's statements was rank hearsay, and

                                     -24-
             In all events, Gisleson had testified at each of the

earlier trials, and defense counsel knew the substance of her

testimony when he promised the jury that the petitioner would

testify at the third trial.           We add that, to the extent that

Gisleson's testimony at the third trial contained variations from

her two previous appearances as a witness, those variations do not

change the calculus.         Some of them — such as the more detailed

account of her conversation with the petitioner after she (the

petitioner) returned from the parking lot — were probably helpful

to the defense, while others — such as her failure to explain that

Tsoleridas    often   made   his    sister   run   errands   related   to   his

carpentry business — were perhaps detrimental.               The inescapable

fact, however, is that a witness's testimony is rarely identical

two times running.     Cf. Beachum v. Tansy, 903 F.2d 1321, 1326 (10th

Cir. 1990) (noting that "uncertainties and minor variations [are]

normal to the recollection of honest witnesses after lapse of

time").   Thus, the dispositive question must be whether, viewed as

a   whole,   the   testimony    may    be    characterized    as   materially

different.     We think not:       comparing Gisleson's testimony at the

second and third trials, the differences are minor and amounted to




did not afford the factfinders an opportunity to see and hear the
petitioner's detailed, first-hand account of the transaction.

                                      -25-
neither a qualitative change nor an unexpected event justifying an

abrupt switch in strategy.7

               If more were needed — and we doubt that it is — the

lawyer's about-face regarding the need for his client's testimony

took place between the first and second day of trial.                     In other

words, he changed his mind before Gisleson even testified.                     This

chronology erases any suspicion that differences in Gisleson's

testimony may have prompted the reversal of strategy.

              The short of it is that, without exception, the events

that       occurred     at   the    third    trial   should    have    been   easily

foreseeable to competent counsel at the time he made his opening

statement.        There were no surprises — and, thus, the lawyer's

tergiversation could not be excused by changed circumstances.

Compare, e.g., Magill v. Dugger, 824 F.2d 879, 887-88 (11th Cir.

1987) (finding ineffective assistance because counsel's strategy

failed to account for foreseeable testimony), with Drake v. Clark,

14 F.3d 351, 356 (7th Cir. 1994) (reaching the opposite conclusion

when       counsel's     strategy    was     frustrated   by     an   unforeseeable

development).

               Were we sitting in direct review, the foregoing analysis

would      lead   us    to   find   counsel's      performance   constitutionally

unacceptable.          In the exercise of habeas jurisdiction, however, we


       7
      This conclusion is also buttressed by defense counsel's
summation to the jury in which he made light of the added details
in Gisleson's testimony.

                                            -26-
must take another step and evaluate the reasonableness of the

Appeals Court's contrary conclusion.               See 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1).

Strickland constitutes the established Supreme Court precedent, and

the state court purported to apply the functional equivalent of

Strickland's performance prong.8             Because it did so — and because

the    facts    of   this   case    differ    significantly     from   those   of

Strickland — this case does not fit within the confines of section

2254(d)(1)'s "contrary to" clause insofar as counsel's performance

is concerned.        Rather, the crux of the matter is whether the state

court applied Strickland's performance standard in an objectively

reasonable manner when it determined that the lawyer's performance

did not fall below the constitutional minimum.

               We start this phase of our analysis with the text of the

state-court decision.         The state court first absolved the attorney

from       responsibility    for   failing    to    present   the   petitioner's

testimony       because     the    petitioner      herself    possessed    enough

sophistication to make such a decision.              This determination misses

the point of the petitioner's constitutional claim.                       While a



       8
      Although the state court did not refer to Strickland by name,
it applied a similar standard articulated in Saferian, 315 N.E.2d
at 882-83. We have indicated that the Saferian standard is roughly
equivalent to the Strickland standard, see Scarpa, 38 F.3d at 7-8,
and the Massachusetts courts have noted that Saferian is at least
as favorable to the defendant as Strickland, see, e.g.,
Commonwealth v. Finley, 475 N.E.2d 381, 385 n.3 (Mass. 1985).
Thus, the state court applied a constitutionally proper performance
standard (and, accordingly, the state-court decision is not
"contrary to" clearly established Supreme Court precedent).

                                       -27-
decision   about   whether    to   testify      ultimately   rests     with   the

defendant, see Rock v. Arkansas, 483 U.S. 44, 49-53 (1987), a

defendant's   waiver   of    the   right   to    testify   must   be   knowing,

informed, and intelligent.         This implies an understanding of the

consequences of the decision.       See United States v. Manjarrez, 258

F.3d 618, 623-24 (7th Cir. 2001).          Yet, the affidavits of both the

petitioner and her trial counsel make it clear that she was not

informed about the potential impact that the broken promises might

have on the jury should she decide not to testify.9

           A second problem with the state-court decision lies in

its characterization of defense counsel's approach in his opening

statement.    Despite the unambiguous, emphatic, and oft-repeated

comments regarding both the imminence and the salience of the

petitioner's testimony, the state court asserted that "counsel

approached cautiously the question of [the petitioner] testifying."

Here, however, the record makes manifest that trial counsel's

approach to the question of calling the petitioner as a witness —

making an unconditional promise, repeating it four times over, and


     9
      We add, moreover, that if the attorney improperly counseled
his client to eschew appearing as a witness after having promised
the jury that she would testify, the fact that the client
"voluntarily" embraced this erroneous advice seems insufficient to
palliate the constitutional effects of the attorney's error. But
we need not probe this point too deeply, as the Commonwealth has
made no developed argument to the effect that the petitioner's
independent choice forecloses the ineffective assistance claim.
See United States v. Zannino, 895 F.2d 1, 17 (1st Cir. 1990)
(noting that "issues . . ., unaccompanied by some effort at
developed argumentation, are deemed waived").

                                    -28-
then breaking it without justification — was the antithesis of

caution.      Because the state-court's characterization is not borne

out    by    any   plausible     reading    of   the    record,     we    deem     it

unreasonable.       See O'Brien, 145 F.3d at 25 (stating that if a

state-court determination is devoid of record support, it fits

within the "unreasonable application" prong of section 2254(d)(1)).

              Finally, the state court offered only a single reason why

counsel might legitimately have changed his mind about calling the

petitioner to the witness stand, namely, that the barbed cross-

examination of Gisleson intimated that the petitioner would undergo

an    even   fiercer   attack.      That    hypothesis   does     not     withstand

scrutiny.      For one thing, counsel reversed course before Gisleson

testified.     For another thing, the Commonwealth's strongest attack

on Gisleson relied on her knowledge of the suppressed evidence.

Because      Gisleson's   cross-examination       put    some     of     that    same

information before the jury, see supra note 2, her testimony

actually     removed   part    of   the    rationale    for   not      putting   the

petitioner on the witness stand.             In other respects, Gisleson's

testimony was no more severely impeached than in the previous

trials — trials in which both Gisleson and the petitioner had

testified and had held their own under withering cross-examination.

At the very least, the petitioner's counsel should have anticipated

the ferocity of potential cross-examination when he was deciding

what to tell the jury in his opening statement.                        The Appeals


                                      -29-
Court's    attempted   justification       is,   therefore,    plainly

insupportable.

           To sum up, counsel committed an obvious error, without

any semblance of a colorable excuse.       There is simply no record

support for the state court's finding that the attorney's conduct

constituted a reasonable strategic choice.       To the contrary, the

only sensible conclusion that can be drawn from this record is that

the attorney's performance was constitutionally deficient under

Strickland — and severely so.     We hold, therefore, that the state-

court finding on this point constituted an unreasonable application

of the Strickland performance prong.

                             B.   Prejudice.

           The   remaining    issue   involves   the   state   court's

determination that counsel's performance, even if constitutionally

deficient, did not prejudice the petitioner.       The district court

found fault with the state court's application of Commonwealth v.

Saferian, supra, positing that, insofar as prejudice is concerned,

Saferian articulates a standard contrary to Strickland. Ouber, 158

F. Supp. 2d at 154 (arguing that Saferian concentrates on whether

counsel's mistake deprived the accused of a substantial ground of

defense rather than whether the mistake altered the outcome of the

trial).   We disagree with this assessment.

           Although Strickland and Saferian do not employ identical

phraseology, we have described those variations as "minor" and have


                                  -30-
concluded that, for habeas purposes, Saferian is a functional

equivalent of Strickland.             Scarpa, 38 F.3d at 7-8.            That is the law

of the circuit.          Moreover, that interpretation squares with the

relevant    Massachusetts            case    law.         While    Saferian     predated

Strickland, the SJC since has concluded that Saferian is at least

as    solicitous    of       Sixth   Amendment      rights    as    Strickland.         See

Commonwealth       v.    Urena,      632    N.E.2d    1200,       1202    (Mass.     1994);

Commonwealth v. Finley, 475 N.E.2d 381, 385 n.3 (Mass. 1985).                           In

light of these precedents, we are unable to sustain the district

court's conclusion that Saferian runs contrary to Strickland (and,

thus, that the Appeals Court's decision is contrary to settled

Supreme Court case law).

            The district court committed another error when it ruled

that the state court's "no prejudice" decision was unreasonable

because prejudice must be presumed when an attorney inexcusably

fails to carry out an announced promise to present an important

witness.    Ouber, 158 F. Supp. 2d at 155.                   To the extent that the

district    court       meant    that      the   prejudice    inquiry       demanded     by

Strickland is superfluous in such a case, that holding is not

grounded in any established Supreme Court precedent.                               To the

contrary, the Court repeatedly has emphasized the limited nature of

any    exceptions       to     the   general       rule    that    a     defendant    must

demonstrate actual prejudice.                See Mickens v. Taylor, 122 S. Ct.




                                            -31-
1237, 1246 (2002); Smith, 528 U.S. at 287; Strickland, 466 U.S. at

692.

             As recently as May 28, 2002, the Court reiterated that

prejudice may be presumed only in three narrowly circumscribed

situations.    Bell, 122 S. Ct. at ___ [2002 U.S. LEXIS 4020, at *20-

21].   First, a trial is presumptively unfair if the accused is

completely denied the presence of counsel at a critical stage of

the proceedings. Id. (citing, inter alia, Hamilton v. Alabama, 368

U.S. 52, 54 (1961)).      Second, such a presumption is warranted if

"counsel entirely fails to subject the prosecution's case to

meaningful adversarial testing." Id. at ___ [2002 U.S. LEXIS 4020,

at *21] (quoting United States v. Cronic, 466 U.S. 648, 659

(1984)).     Third, prejudice may be presumed in the presence of

circumstances under which a competent lawyer would likely not be

able to     render   effective   assistance.   Id. (citing   Powell   v.

Alabama, 287 U.S. 45 (1932)).

             In this case, the district court did not assert that any

of these exceptions apply, and, in all events, the record would not

support such an assertion. Instead, the district court appeared to

read Anderson as carving out a new exception.      Ouber, 158 F. Supp.

2d at 154.    Whether or not Anderson intended to do so is beside the

point, since the weight of recent Supreme Court precedent is to the

contrary.     See, e.g., Bell, 122 S. Ct. at ___ [2002 U.S. LEXIS

4020, at *20-21]; Mickens, 122 S. Ct. at 1246.     We have heeded the


                                   -32-
Court's clear message in the past, e.g., Scarpa, 38 F.3d at 11, and

we are constrained to heed it here.    Because the circumstances of

this case do not fall within the contours of any of the three

recognized exceptions to the Strickland formulation, a presumption

of prejudice cannot be condoned.

           Setting the misplaced presumption to one side, we turn to

the task of determining whether, on the facts of this case, the

error was prejudicial.    For this purpose, an error generally is

considered prejudicial if there is a strong possibility that it

affected the outcome of the trial.     See Strickland, 466 U.S. at

693-94.    Consequently, we must consider, on whole-record review,

whether the trial might have ended differently absent the lawyer's

blunder.   This is normally a difficult endeavor, but we are aided

here by a unique circumstance:     this was the petitioner's third

trial, and the only substantial difference among those trials

relates to the omission of her testimony at the third trial.   Thus,

unlike in the vast majority of cases, we have actual rather than

hypothetical reference points to guide our inquiry.10

           When the petitioner testified, two different juries found

the prosecution's case so evanescent that they were unable to reach



     10
      We caution that the likelihood of a different outcome may not
always be synonymous with prejudice. See Strickland, 466 U.S. at
695 (noting that when acquittal would be likely only because of
improper collateral considerations a defendant should not reap the
benefit of a new trial). That caveat is not applicable in this
instance.

                                -33-
a verdict.     Even without the petitioner's testimony, the jury in

the third trial was deadlocked for a time.               Given these facts, we

are bound to conclude that the case was exceedingly close.

           In a borderline case, even a relatively small error is

likely to tilt the decisional scales. See, e.g., Frey v. Fulcomer,

974 F.2d 348, 369 (3d Cir. 1992).               The error here — failing to

present the promised testimony of an important witness — was not

small, but monumental. See, e.g., Anderson, 852 F.2d at 18-19; cf.

United States v. Gonzalez-Maldonado, 115 F.3d 9, 15 (1st Cir. 1997)

(finding reversible error when the trial judge initially agreed

that an important witness could testify, but later barred that

witness from testifying).         The net result of the failure to call

the petitioner to the witness stand was that the jury heard only

Shea's   version    of   what    transpired       in   the   car.     Yet,     the

petitioner's version would have been materially different with

respect to certain critical aspects, such as whether Shea opened

the envelopes in front of her and whether any verbal exchange

regarding the      contents     (e.g.,    the   weight    and   quality   of   the

cocaine)     occurred.        Because     these   contradictions      were     not

introduced into evidence, the jury never had an opportunity to

assess the conflicting testimony or to weigh the petitioner's

credibility against Shea's.              What is worse, counsel's belated

decision not to present the petitioner's testimony sabotaged the

bulk of his efforts prior to that time (and, in the process,


                                     -34-
undermined      his    own    standing       with     the   jury,   thereby       further

diminishing the petitioner's chances of success).                          Because the

error was egregious, we are fully persuaded that, but for its

commission,     a     different       outcome    might       well   have    eventuated.

Accordingly,        the    case   satisfies      the    prejudice       prong     of    the

Strickland framework.

            Under      the    AEDPA,    an    erroneous       determination       is   not

necessarily an unreasonable determination.                    Williams, 529 U.S. at

410.   Thus, it remains for us to address whether the state court's

finding    of    no       prejudice    was      not    only    incorrect      but      also

unreasonable.         The test is an objective one.             See id.      It focuses

on   the   state      court's     ultimate    conclusion       rather      than   on   the

strength of the court's announced rationale.                    See Bui v. DiPaolo,

170 F.3d 232, 243-44 (1st Cir. 1999) (stating that "state courts

are not required to supply the specific reasons that a federal

court thinks are most persuasive for upholding the judgment"),

cert. denied, 529 U.S. 1086 (2000); accord Hurtado v. Tucker, 245

F.3d 7, 19 (1st Cir.), cert. denied, 122 S. Ct. 282 (2001);

O'Brien, 145 F.3d at 25.                In other words, the hallmark of a

reasonable determination is the result reached by the state court,

not the ratiocination leading to that result.

            Here, the Massachusetts Appeals Court's "no prejudice"

determination is not a credible outcome.                    That tribunal dealt with




                                         -35-
the question of prejudice vel non in a single paragraph, which

reads:

                 To omit to call a witness who has been
          promised can, of course, be a serious mistake,
          but whether it is such in any given case is
          dependent on the circumstances, as the law
          recognizes. [string citations omitted] The
          promise here was not made dramatically or
          memorably, as it was in [Anderson]. Counsel's
          apology in closing was brief and subdued.
          That the jury were not overcome by the
          unfulfilled promise is indicated by the fact
          that it took a [dynamite] charge to inspire
          the verdict. The verdict itself found solid
          support in the evidence.    The judge charged
          against any invidious implication from the
          defendant's silence.

As can be seen, this paragraph contains several assertions — but

these assertions are either irrelevant or devoid of record support.

We explain briefly.

          The state court opined that defense counsel's opening

promises were not "dramatic" or "memorable."    We find it hard to

imagine, however, how the court could have reached that conclusion.

The attorney made the promises explicitly and repeatedly.   He also

exhorted the jurors to base their ultimate decision on their

collective assessment of the contrasting accounts that would be

given by Shea and the petitioner, respectively.    This call for a

credibility judgment was the crowning element of the lawyer's

opening statement and could not have failed to make an impression

on the jury.   The single promise in Anderson, 858 F.2d at 17 — a

case in which counsel did not urge the jurors to rest their


                               -36-
decision on the credibility of the witness who was promised but not

produced — was certainly far less dramatic and memorable.

          The state court also implied that the alleged error was

inconsequential because the jury initially deadlocked and therefore

was not immediately overborne by the detrimental effect of the

broken promises.   This argument effectively assumes that because a

blunder did not lead to a summary conviction, it was of negligible

effect.   We believe that such an assumption is unreasonable; the

fact that the jury convicted the petitioner only after prolonged

deliberations and a supplemental "dynamite" charge necessarily

underscores the closeness of the case (and, therefore, the gravity

of any error).

          The Appeals Court also posited that the petitioner's case

was "intrinsically weak," and that the jury's verdict rested on

solid evidence.     The   court,    however,   did   not   buttress   these

conclusory statements with any specific findings, and they are

belied by the record.     Indeed, the very fact that the first two

trials ended in hung juries is powerful proof that those statements

are insupportable. At each of those trials, the evidence marshaled

against the petitioner was so underwhelming that the jurors were

unable to reach a decision.        The state court failed to consider

this fact, or to suggest why doing so might be unhelpful.

          The remaining factors mentioned by the Appeals Court bear

little relevance to the prejudice inquiry. The fact that counsel's


                                   -37-
apology   to   the    jury   was   "subdued"   neither   establishes   the

insignificance of the original promises nor palliates the effect of

the mistake.    The fact that the jury was advised not to draw a

negative inference from the petitioner's failure to testify is

likewise irrelevant; the attorney's mistake was not in invoking the

petitioner's right to remain silent, but in "the totality of the

opening and the failure to follow through."        Anderson, 858 F.2d at

17.

          To sum up, this was the petitioner's third trial and the

only salient difference between it and the two prior trials was the

absence of her testimony.      This time around, defense counsel made

a promise, hammered it home, and then broke it.            The first two

trials, at which the petitioner testified, offer a prime example of

how this trial likely would have ended in the absence of this

stunning error.      We believe that it was unreasonable for the state

court not to have taken such obvious reference points into account.

Had it done so, it would have been bound to conclude that the case

was a close one in which counsel's egregious error was likely to

have made a dispositive difference.

           That ends the matter.       Since neither the state court's

opinion nor our own careful perscrutation of the record reveals an

objectively reasonable ground for the state court's "no prejudice"

determination, we are constrained to set it aside.




                                    -38-
IV.   CONCLUSION

            We need go no further.         Had the state court applied

Strickland in an objectively reasonable manner, it would have been

bound to conclude that defense counsel's abandonment of the oft-

repeated promise that the petitioner would testify, enunciated in

his   opening   statement,   amounted     to   ineffective    assistance   of

counsel in violation of the Sixth Amendment.                 The lawyer was

intimately familiar with the case before he made this promise

(having represented the petitioner in two prior trials on the same

charges).   Yet, he staked his client's defense on the strength of

her testimony and then, with no discernible justification, changed

his mind and decided that she should not testify.            No significant

change in circumstances occurred between the time of the lawyer's

opening statement and the time of his about-face.               This was a

serious error in professional judgment, and the state court's

contrary determination represented an unreasonable application of

Strickland's performance prong.

            Here, moreover, the prior trials serve as a meaningful

benchmark for determining the likelihood that the outcome of the

third trial was affected by the lawyer's mistake.             Those trials,

neither of which was marred by the same error, produced results

materially different from the one reached in the third trial. Yet,

the state court inexplicably failed to undertake this comparative

analysis.       We   conclude,   therefore,     that   the   state   court's


                                   -39-
harmlessness determination represented an unreasonable application

of Strickland's prejudice prong.

            For these reasons, we affirm the judgment of the district

court. The petitioner shall be entitled to a writ of habeas corpus

unless the Commonwealth affords her a new trial within the period

prescribed.



Affirmed.




                                 -40-