Gapen v. Secretary of Health and Human Services

Related Cases

      In the United States Court of Federal Claims
                              OFFICE OF SPECIAL MASTERS
    
    *************************
    ADAM GAPEN,              *
                             *                                 No. 19-422V
                 Petitioner, *                                 Special Master Christian J.
                             *                                 Moran
                             *
    v.                       *                                 Filed: May 5, 2022
                             *
    SECRETARY OF HEALTH      *                                 Pneumococcal conjugate PCV-
                             *                                 13 vaccine; serum sickness
    AND HUMAN SERVICES,      *                                 like reaction (“SSLR”);
                             *                                 significant aggravation;
                             *                                 ulcerative colitis (“UC”)
                 Respondent. *
    *************************
    
    Kathleen M. Loucks, Lommen Abdo Law Firm, Minneapolis, MN, for petitioner.
    Lynn C. Schlie, United States Dep’t of Justice, Washington, D.C., for respondent.
    
                PUBLISHED DECISION DENYING COMPENSATION1
    
          On March 21, 2019, Adam Gapen (“petitioner”) filed a petition for
    compensation. Mr. Gapen alleges the pneumococcal conjugate (“Prevnar” or
    “PCV-13”) vaccine he received on May 24, 2016 caused him to develop a serum
    sickness like reaction (“SSLR”) and a significant aggravation of his underlying
    ulcerative colitis (“UC”).2 Am. Pet., filed May 4, 2020, at 1.
    
           1
             The E-Government Act, 44 U.S.C. § 3501 note (2012) (Federal Management and
    Promotion of Electronic Government Services), requires that the Court post this decision on its
    website. This posting will make the decision available to anyone with the internet. Pursuant to
    Vaccine Rule 18(b), the parties have 14 days to file a motion proposing redaction of medical
    information or other information described in 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-12(d)(4). Any redactions
    ordered by the special master will appear in the document posted on the website.
    
           2
             The initial petition alleged the PCV-13 vaccine caused erythema multiforme (“EM”) or
    Stevens-Johnson syndrome (“SJS”). The amended petition claims the vaccine caused an SSLR,
    significantly aggravating Mr. Gapen’s UC. Thus, Mr. Gapen is not pursuing a causation-in-fact
           After carefully weighing and assessing the evidence presented in this case,
    the undersigned finds Mr. Gapen has not met his legal burden. Preponderant
    evidence does not support the finding that the PCV-13 vaccine Mr. Gapen received
    significantly aggravated his UC. Accordingly, Mr. Gapen is not entitled to
    compensation.
    
    I.     Legal Standard
    
           In the Vaccine Program, a petitioner is entitled to compensation if the
    special master determines, “on the record as a whole,” that petitioner has
    “demonstrated by a preponderance of the evidence the matters required in the
    petition by [§ 300aa-11(c)(1)], and that there is not a preponderance of evidence
    that the illness, disability, [etc.] described in the petition is due to factors unrelated
    to the [vaccination].” 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-13(a)(1)(A)–(B). Compensation cannot
    be awarded “based on the claims of a petitioner alone, unsubstantiated by medical
    records or by medical opinion.” 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-13(a)(1). Although not
    binding, the special master must consider all “diagos[e]s, conclusion[s], [and]
    medical judgment[s] . . . regarding the nature, causation, and aggravation of the
    petitioner’s [condition],” as well as evaluative and diagnostic tests. 42 U.S.C.
    § 300aa-13(b)(1). Special masters must “consider the entire record and the course
    of” the petitioner’s condition. Id.
    
           To receive compensation under the Vaccine Act, the petitioner must
    demonstrate either that: (1) his condition is a “Table Injury,” and it resulted from
    the receipt of a covered vaccine or vaccines within the time frame set forth by the
    Vaccine Injury Table; or (2) his condition is an “off-Table Injury,” one not listed
    on the Table, that resulted from his receipt of a covered vaccine. See 42 U.S.C.
    § 300aa-11(c)(1)(C); Moberly v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 592 F.3d 1315,
    1321 (Fed. Cir. 2010); Capizzano v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 440 F.3d
    1317, 1319-20 (Fed. Cir. 2006). Mr. Gapen’s claim that the PCV-13 vaccine
    significantly aggravated his ulcerative colitis does not fall within the Vaccine table.
    Thus, Mr. Gapen must prove that the Prevnar vaccination was the cause-in-fact of
    the aggravation of his condition. The Vaccine Act defines significant aggravation
    as “any change for the worse in a preexisting condition which results in markedly
    greater disability, pain, or illness accompanied by substantial deterioration of
    health.” 42 U.S.C. § 300aa-33(4).
    
    claim. In other words, his claim is not simply that the PCV-13 vaccine caused an SSLR. Rather,
    the development of an SSLR is only a step for his significant aggravation claim.
                                                  2
           In Althen v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., the Federal Circuit articulated a
    three-prong test to assess whether a petitioner has demonstrated a causal link
    between a vaccine and the claimed injury. 418 F.3d 1274, 1278 (Fed. Cir. 2005).
    The evidentiary burden is expanded for substantial aggravation claims, adding
    additional considerations to the Althen prongs. See Loving v. Sec'y of Health and
    Hum. Servs., 86 Fed. Cl. 135, 144 (2009). The six factors required to establish a
    significant aggravation showing include:
    
                (1) the person’s condition prior to administration of the
                vaccine, (2) the person’s current condition (or the
                condition following the vaccination if that is also
                pertinent), (3) whether the person’s current condition
                constitutes a “significant aggravation” of the person’s
                condition prior to vaccination, (4) a medical theory
                causally connecting such a significantly worsened
                condition to the vaccination, (5) a logical sequence of
                cause and effect showing that the vaccination was the
                reason for the significant aggravation, and (6) a showing
                of a proximate temporal relationship between the
                vaccination and the significant aggravation.
    
    W.C. v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 704 F.3d 1352, 1357 (Fed. Cir. 2013),
    quoting Loving, 86 Fed. Cl. at 144. The last three elements are derived from
    Althen, 418 F.3d at 1278.
    
           A Loving analysis requires the special master to “evaluat[e] whether the
    vaccine made the person worse than the person would have been but for the
    vaccination. In doing so, the natural course of the disease must be considered.”
    Locane v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., No. 99-589V, 2011 WL 3855486, at
    *10 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Feb. 17, 2011), mot. for rev. den’d, 99 Fed. Cl. 715
    (2011), aff’d, 685 F.3d 1375 (Fed. Cir. 2012); see also Hennessey v. Sec’y of
    Health & Hum. Servs., No. 01-190V, 2009 WL 1709053, at *41-42 (Fed. Cl. Spec.
    Mstr. May 29, 2009), mot. for review den’d, 91 Fed. Cl. 126 (2010). Nonetheless,
    a petitioner is not required “to demonstrate an expected outcome and that her
    current-post vaccination condition was worse than such expected outcome.”
    Sharpe v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 964 F.3d 1072, 1081 (Fed. Cir. 2020).
    Rather, the test “only requires a comparison of a petitioner’s current, post-
    vaccination condition with her pre-vaccination condition.” Id.
    
                                             3
           If a petitioner satisfies the Loving prongs, the burden shifts to the
    government to prove by preponderant evidence that “factors unrelated to the
    administration of the vaccine” caused the petitioner’s injuries. 42 U.S.C. § 300aa–
    13(a)(1)(A)–(B). If the government does not carry its burden, the petitioner is
    entitled to compensation.
    
    II.   Factual Background
    
          A.     Mr. Gapen’s Pre-Vaccination Medical History
    
           On June 23, 2015, Mr. Gapen presented at Fairview Clinics. Exhibit 4 at 13.
    The reason for the visit was a rash on his right leg for “15+ years” and warts on his
    right hand. He was diagnosed with lichen simplex chronicus and was prescribed
    triamcinolone. Id. at 13-16. An asthma test was performed. He returned on July
    10, 2015 for wart evaluation and treatment. Id. at 22-26.
    
           Sometime in January of 2016, Mr. Gapen began experiencing concerning
    symptoms. On February 12, 2016, Mr. Gapen returned to Fairview Clinics feeling
    sick. Exhibit 4 at 38. In the subjective portion of the record, concerns included
    vomiting, gas, upper abdominal pain, weight loss of 20 pounds, and
    lightheadedness. The duration was listed as “1 month.” Id. at 39. Occasional
    diarrhea was noted but profound blood in stool was denied. Id. at 40. Mr. Gapen
    had a fever (temperature of 100.8°F) and elevated heart rate (103 bpm). Exhibit 4
    at 39; 53. The physician’s assistant noted “[r]ecent ct scan revealed mild changes
    suggestion of colitis.” Id. Universal ulcerative colitis with rectal bleeding was
    listed under patient’s diagnosis / active problem list. Id.
    
           Ulcerative colitis, a subtype of inflammatory bowel disease, is a chronic
    inflammatory disease of the intestine. Exhibit C (Dr. Longman’s expert report) at
    3. Medication can be used to treat UC but there is no known medical cure.
    Treatments include mesalamines (e.g. Lialda), steroids (e.g. prednisone), various
    immunosuppressives, and biologic therapies (e.g. anti-TNFα therapies, such as
    Humira). Though many patients benefit from medical treatments, development of
    relapsing disease is common. Id.
    
          During the February 12, 2016 visit, various samples were collected and tests
    were ordered. Exhibit 4 at 41-47. Results revealed Mr. Gapen’s erythrocyte
    sedimentation rate (“ESR”) was 63 with a reference range of 0 – 15 mm/h, tagged
    as abnormal. Id. at 50. Hemoglobin levels were 9.0 g/dL with a reference range of
    13.3 – 17.7 g/dL. Hematocrit was 28.7% with a 40.0 – 53.0 % reference range. Id.
                                              4
    at 49. Occult blood in stool was noted. Id. at 44, 47. Elevated white blood cell
    (“WBC”) count and acute anemia were noted. Id. at 54.
    
           The healthcare provider referred Mr. Gapen to gastroenterology for further
    assessments. Id. He was prescribed prednisone with a dose that tapered from 80
    mg during the first few days to 10 mg during days 17-20. Id. at 42. Prednisone is
    a strong and fast-acting corticosteroid. It is effective for treating inflammation but
    does not cure the underlying disease. Exhibit A (Dr. Maverakis’s expert report) at
    9-10.
    
           On February 22, 2016, Mr. Gapen presented to Minnesota Gastroenterology
    for a consultation and was seen by Dr. Daniel Van Handel. Exhibit 5 at 1.
    According to the history provided here, Mr. Gapen’s abdominal pain, nausea,
    bloody diarrhea, and related symptoms began in late December 2015. Dr. Van
    Handel assessed Mr. Gapen as suffering colitis, reduced Mr. Gapen’s tapering
    prednisone dosages, and scheduled a colonoscopy for the following week. Id.
    However, Dr. Van Handel noted: “Unfortunately, corticosteroids [were] started
    prior to diagnosis being confirmed or extent of the disease being evaluated. . . .
    Hopefully, a colonoscopy within one week will help confirm the diagnosis prior to
    further medical management decision[s].” Exhibit 5 at 1. In other words, in
    reducing inflammation, prednisone may have masked a more severe disease.
    
           During the February 22, 2016 visit, Dr. Van Handel discussed various
    treatment options, including Lialda, for Mr. Gapen to read about. Exhibit 5 at 2.
    However, the treatment notes from the February 22, 2016 and February 25, 2016
    visits do not clearly indicate Mr. Gapen was prescribed Lialda at those times.
    
            Mr. Gapen underwent a colonoscopy on February 25, 2016. Id. at 8-9. The
    preliminary impressions were colitis and colon polyp. Id at 8. A May 25, 2016
    record from Dr. Van Handel described the colonoscopy as showing “panulcerative
    colitis.” Id. at 12. Dr. Van Handel continued the prednisone treatment, prescribing
    three 10 mg tablets per day. Id. at 9.
    
          Mr. Gapen discontinued or finished his prednisone treatment around April
    24, 2016. Exhibit 5 at 12 (Dr. Van Handel noted in a May 24, 2016 record that Mr.
    Gapen “has been off prednisone for one month”).
    
          B.     Mr. Gapen’s Medical History within Six Months of Vaccination
    
    
                                              5
           On May 24, 2016, Mr. Gapen returned to Minnesota Gastroenterology.
    Exhibit 5 at 12-14. At this visit, he received the Pneumococcal conjugate PCV-13
    vaccination in his left deltoid. He maintains this vaccination caused long-lasting
    health problems.
    
           Multiple metrics from the May 24, 2016 visit suggest Mr. Gapen’s overall
    health was improving since February 2016. Mr. Gapen’s hemoglobin levels had
    increased from 9.0 g/dL to 10.3 g/dL. Exhibit 5 at 18-20. WBC and CRP levels
    were normalizing. He had gained back twenty pounds of lost weight. Id. at 12.
    No diarrhea or abdominal pain were noted. Blood work was “notable for iron
    deficiency anemia.” Exhibit 5 at 18. Mr. Gapen had pain in one knee, attributed to
    a torn ACL, “though no other joint pain.” Id. at 12.
    
          Mr. Gapen’s leg rash was present and treated with Hydrocortisone cream
    and he received two iron infusions for quick treatment. Exhibit 5 at 18. Mr.
    Gapen was also instructed to take other medications for further UC management.
    
           In their briefs, the parties state that on this date (May 24, 2016), Mr. Gapen
    “was started on Lialda.” Pet’r’s Br., filed July 26, 2021, at 6; Resp’t’s Br., filed
    Oct. 1, 2021, at 3; but see Exhibit A at 10 (Dr. Maverakis arguing Lialda treatment
    started after the February 25, 2016 colonoscopy).3 Lialda is used to control UC
    flareups; on May 24, 2016, Mr. Gapen was instructed to “continue” taking Lialda
    for 6 months before tapering. Id. at 12.
    
          Three days later, on May 27, 2016, Mr. Gapen went to work an early shift at
    Target. Exhibit 3 (affidavit). He left Target by 9:00 A.M. due to swelling, pain,
    and difficulty walking. Id. at 2. Mr. Gapen presented to the emergency
    department Allina Health – Unity Hospital in Fridley, Minnesota, where he
    remained for a few days. Id.
    
          Mr. Gapen reported he developed a fever and hives on his legs and testicles
    the day prior (May 26, 2016). Exhibit 6 at 1. The rashes were later described (on
    
           3
             The May 24, 2016 record states following: “He has been off prednisone for one month.
    He was started on Lialda 4.8 g daily.” (emphasis added). Exhibit 5 at 12. Under
    Assessment/Plan, the record states “Continue Lialda 4.8 g daily.” (emphasis added). Id. at 13.
    Later, Dr. Van Handel wrote: “Following the colonoscopy, Adam was weaned off of prednisone
    and continued on Lialda. He was given Prevnar-13 vaccine at this visit as well.” Id. at 24 (Sept.
    6, 2016 record). Thus, it is unclear whether the Lialda treatment began before or
    contemporaneously with vaccination.
    
                                                    6
    May 30, 2016) as “quarter-sized, ring-like, circular rashes, slightly painful but not
    itchy.” Id. at 13. Myalgias and sore throat were reported, and abdominal pain and
    diarrhea were denied. Id. Sepsis protocols were initiated. Id. at 3, 10. The
    attending ED physician, Dr. Andrew Meister, noted “[i]t is unclear to me whether
    his symptoms are related to [the PCV-13] immunization or this is a separate
    process given that his symptoms did not appear until 2 days after injection.” Id. at
    3. Similarly, Dr. Joudat Yazigi noted “it is not very clear whether it is an adverse
    reaction to pneumococcal vaccine which per literature would include most of the
    above listed symptoms versus sepsis/SIRS.” Id. at 10. Assessments included
    “sepsis” and “suspected adverse reaction to pneumococcal vaccine.” Id.
    “[P]ossible sepsis/hives/autoimmune response” is listed on a nurse’s admission
    note. Id. at 16. An infectious disease consultation was scheduled.
    
           The following day, on May 28, 2016, Mr. Gapen had an infectious disease
    consultation. Exhibit 6 at 12. Dr. Shewangizaq Worku diagnosed Mr. Gapen with
    “[e]rythema multiforme related to PCV-13 vaccination." Id. In a separate
    notation, Dr. Worku stated Mr. Gapen “developed systemic inflammatory response
    with associated erythema multiforme-like rash.” Id. at 14. Dr. Worku
    recommended Mr. Gapen resume mesalamine (Lialda) for UC / diarrhea treatment.
    Id.
    
           On May 29, 2016, Mr. Gapen was discharged from the Allina Health
    emergency department. Exhibit 6 at 23. Most symptoms had resolved. The
    discharge diagnoses include “[a]cute sepsis immune response syndrome secondary
    to adverse reaction from pneumococcal vaccine,” ulcerative colitis, anemia, and
    erythema multiforme. Id. Mr. Gapen was advised to continue taking mesalamine
    daily. Id. at 24.4
    
          During a June 2, 2016 follow-up visit at Fairview Clinic, a treater noted
    “Serum sickness, subsequent encounter.” Exhibit 4 at 62. Mr. Gapen was
    prescribed a high dose of prednisone. Id.; see also exhibit 3 (affidavit) at 2. No
    rashes or joint pains were noted at this visit.
    
          Mr. Gapen received additional testing and bloodwork at Minnesota
    Gastroenterology on July 12, 2016. Exhibit 5 at 21. The results were overall
    acceptable, with hemoglobin levels increasing. Id.
    
           4
            Dr. Jacob disputes the use of term sepsis here because the term “implies infection,
    which was ruled out during the hospitalization.” Exhibit 9 at 4. A discharge summary states:
    “No infection was found.” Exhibit 6 at 23.
                                                   7
           In August of 2016, Mr. Gapen started college. Exhibit 3 at 2. Although he
    wished to work more, he worked one day a week at Target with the option to leave
    early if needed. Id.
    
          On August 4, 2016, via referral from Dr. Van Handel, Mr. Gapen saw Dr.
    Susan Leonard, for a rheumatology evaluation at Arthritis and Rheumatology
    Consultants. Exhibit 7 at 1; exhibit 3 at 2. Mr. Gapen was evaluated for joint pain
    and elevated c-reactive protein. Id. Dr. Leonard diagnosed Mr. Gapen with
    inflammatory polyarthropathy. Id. at 4. Dr. Leonard noted:
    
           I think this is highly likely inflammatory arthritis and tendinitis
           associated with the colitis. His colitis is active. He did calm down[]
           [a]fter he finished the long course of prednisone from February to
           March and started Lialda. However, it was about 6-8 weeks after going
           off the prednisone his bowels started to flare up and cause more
           diarrhea and bloody stools . . . Inflammatory arthritis associated with
           the colitis generally flares when the colitis is active . . . I think he needs
           stronger treatment for his bowel disease . . . I suspect something like
           Humira would be much more beneficial in him . . . [I] think
           inflammatory arthritis associated with [colitis] is much more likely and
           this also could be causing the skin rashes. . . . I don’t think the
           inflammatory arthritis [is] secondary to the pneumonia vaccination.
    
    Id. at 3-4.
    
          Mr. Gapen had a follow-up appointment with Dr. Van Handel on September
    6, 2016. Under past medical history, Dr. Van Handel wrote Mr. Gapen had
    previously been diagnosed with Stevens-Johnson syndrome (“SJS”) secondary to
    Prevnar vaccine. Exhibit 5 at 24.5 Although Dr. Leonard thought Mr. Gapen’s
    hospitalization was related to the UC, Dr. Van Handel wrote he was uncertain
    “whether [Mr. Gapen’s] joint symptoms are secondary to inadequate control of
    ulcerative colitis particularly given his GI symptoms are actually much better
    controlled than at the time of diagnosis.” Id. at 25. He was again prescribed
    prednisone daily followed by a tapering dose to manage his symptoms. Id. Dr.
    
    
           5
             The parties agree that Mr. Gapen did not suffer Stevens-Johnson syndrome and that this
    assertion is not corroborated by the other medical records.
    
                                                   8
    Van Handel discussed checking insurance coverage for Humira and/or
    azathioprine. Id. A follow-up and colonoscopy were recommended.
    
            On September 15, 2016, colon biopsies were performed and samples were
    collected. Exhibit 5 at 34. Findings included “inactive chronic colitis consistent
    with ulcerative colitis” and “mildly active chronic colitis consistent with ulcerative
    colitis.” Id. Impression notes state “ulcerative pancolitis without complication.”
    Id.6
    
          In late September 2016, Mr. Gapen broke out in a painful rash, prompting
    him to call his parents to pick him up from college. Exhibit 3 (affidavit) at 2-3.
    
           On October 13, 2016, Mr. Gapen had a follow-up appointment with Dr. Van
    Handel. Exhibit 5 at 38. The record states that Mr. Gapen was started on
    azathioprine 50 mg daily after the September 15, 2016 colonoscopy, but the drug
    was discontinued at this visit because Mr. Gapen reported “‘foggy’ mentation,
    headaches, and blurry vision” shortly after starting. Id. It further states he had
    joint aches and swelling a week prior. The note suggests Mr. Gapen was started on
    Humira 48 hours prior (October 11, 2016).7
    
            Dr. Van Handel wrote that Mr. Gapen’s UC “is complicated with what is
    thought to be severe inflammatory arthritis . . . [i]nterestingly, his symptoms of
    arthritis began after his GI symptoms were actually in clinical remission.” Id. at
    39. The record states Mr. Gapen was feeling better than he had in several months.
    Id. at 38.
    
           C.     Mr. Gapen’s Medical History Six Months After Vaccination
    
    
    
           6
             Dr. Van Handel’s October 13, 2016 record states that after the September 15, 2016
    colonoscopy, Mr. Gapen “was begun on azathioprine 50 mg daily with a plan to begin Humira in
    two to three weeks. He reports ‘foggy’ mentation, headaches, and blurry vision beginning
    shortly after azathioprine.” Thus, the undersigned finds Mr. Gapen was started on azathioprine
    on September 15, 2016.
           7
            In Mr. Gapen’s affidavit, he states that Dr. Van Handel suggested he try Humira on
    October 4, 2016. Exhibit 3 at 3. Mr. Gapen reported that Humira started working on his
    symptoms “slowly but surely”. Id. But, there does not appear to be a medical record
    documenting this discussion.
    
                                                  9
            Mr. Gapen underwent a repeat colonoscopy and flexible sigmoidoscopy on
    December 13, 2016. Exhibit 5 at 42. The results revealed “mildly active chronic
    colitis consistent with ulcerative colitis.” Id. Mr. Gapen reported experiencing
    joint aches at this visit. Id. at 44-47. Via affidavit, Mr. Gapen stated his swelling
    was almost completely gone in March of 2017. Exhibit 3 at 3. By self-report,
    subsequent flareups were “much milder.” Id.
    
          Between December 2016 and December 2017, it appears that Mr. Gapen did
    not seek medical attention for either GI or arthritic symptoms. The lack of medical
    records from this time suggests that Mr. Gapen’s condition was controlled.8 Mr.
    Gapen stated that after months of taking Humira, around March of 2017, the
    swelling had almost completely resolved. Exhibit 3 at 3.
    
          Mr. Gapen suffered from some mental health issues in 2017. Exhibit 3 at 3-
    5. Depression and anxiety had contributed to difficulty with school and work. Id.
    Mr. Gapen reports these problems escalated in December of 2017. Id. at 4. He
    was admitted to Allina Health on December 15, 2017 for worsening anxiety,
    depression, and suicidal thoughts. Exhibit 6 at 226; exhibit 3 at 4.
    
           On December 20, 2017, Dr. Van Handel recorded that Mr. Gapen’s mental
    health issues had “dramatically improved” but noted ongoing joint aches and
    swelling. Exhibit 5 at 46. Overall, Mr. Gapen’s health appeared to be improving.
    His biopsies were unremarkable. Id.
    
           On January 2, 2018, Mr. Gapen returned to Fairview Clinics for a depression
    follow-up visit. Exhibit 4 at 74. The record states: “Gi [sic] apparently feels the
    arthritis is related to his serum sickness rxn to the Prevnar vaccine 1.5 yrs ago.
    Previous rheumatologist felt it was extra-disease manifestation of his UC. Gi feels
    it’s not as he has been in remission for a while now on humira.” Id. at 75.9 It also
    notes daily pain involving his hands and feet, with some stiffness and soreness.
    
          Experiencing arthritic pain, Mr. Gapen saw a new rheumatologist, Dr. Nitika
    Ghattaura, on February 13, 2018. Exhibit 10 at 3. Dr. Ghattaura wrote Mr.
    Gapen’s physical exams suggest underlying arthritis, which can be related to UC.
           8
              In their briefs, neither party discusses the time period between December 2016 and
    December 2017. Pet’r’s Br. at 8; Resp’t’s Br. at 6-7. Subsequent mental health issues, mild UC
    flares, and joint/arthritic pain are briefly discussed.
           9
              “Gi” here likely refers to a gastrointestinal specialist. In context, “Gi” might refer to a
    treater at Fairview Clinics or Dr. Van Handel, and rheumatologist likely refers to Dr. Leonard.
                                                      10
    Dr. Ghattaura further noted: “He might have gotten serum sickness like reaction to
    Prevnar vaccine but those symptoms should not persist even a year later.” Id. at 4.
    
            Mr. Gapen next sought treatment for arthritic pain on May 1, 2018. Exhibit
    10 at 29. The record notes he had no significant swelling at that time, but he did
    complain of joint aches and stiffness. Id. at 31. Dr. Ghattaura wrote Mr. Gapen’s
    “clinical picture is suggestive of seronegative inflammatory arthritis.” Id.
    Plaquenil was prescribed for treatment. Id. at 32. Mr. Gapen reported on August
    21, 2018 that his joint pains and stiffness were improving since starting Plaquenil.
    Id. at 54. Then on November 20, 2018, Mr. Gapen returned to Dr. Van Handel and
    reported “near complete resolution of joint aches in his hands, elbows, wrists,
    shoulders, and knees and back.” Exhibit 15 at 11.
    
            On May 7, 2019, Mr. Gapen had a follow-up colonoscopy. Exhibit 15 at 14.
    The findings note mucosal healing throughout the colon with no inflammation
    seen. Id. During a June 3, 2019 follow-up, Dr. Van Handel recorded Mr. Gapen’s
    UC was “in clinical and endoscopic remission on Humira every 10-day dosing.”
    Id. at 21.
    
           On August 27, 2019, Mr. Gapen was seen by Kyle Olson, PA-C for
    evaluation of joint pains. Exhibit 51 at 106. In recounting Mr. Gapen’s medical
    history, the record states his symptoms were attributed “to possible serum
    sickness-like reaction”. Id. Regarding recent issues, it states he was having joint
    pain flareups “once every 1 to 2 weeks. The episode lasted for about 2 to 3 days.”
    Id. Overall improvement was reported.
    
           On October 28, 2019, Mr. Gapen was evaluated by Megan McGuigan, PA-C
    for “possible” SJS. Exhibit 51 at 93. The treater “would favor the etiology of
    arthralgias to be from his UC, even though his [symptoms] are controlled with
    Humira.” Id. at 94.
    
           Mr. Gapen was evaluated by Dr. Van Handel on July 1, 2020. Exhibit 52 at
    6. Dr. Van Handel opined that Mr. Gapen’s inflammatory arthropathy is thought
    to be secondary to SJS, secondary to PCV-13 vaccine. The record again reports
    clinical and endoscopic remission and that Mr. Gapen was on Humira and Lialda
    daily. Similarly, Dr. Ghattaura recorded Mr. Gapen’s UC was in remission
    following a December 4, 2020 telemedicine visit. Exhibit 51 at 46-47.
    
    III.   Procedural History
    
                                            11
           Mr. Gapen filed his petition on March 21, 2019. Medical records were filed
    on March 25, 2019, along with an affidavit filed as exhibit 3. Additional records
    were identified and then filed on September 13, 2019. Subsequently, the Secretary
    of Health and Human Services (“the Secretary” or “respondent”) filed his Rule
    4(c) report, recommending against compensation. Resp’t’s Rep., filed Sept. 16,
    2019.
    
           The parties were advised to retain experts and provide them with instructions
    for their reports. See orders, issued Oct. 3, 2019 and Oct. 24, 2019. On December
    18, 2019, Mr. Gapen filed a supplemental affidavit as exhibit 17.
    
           On January 6, 2020, Mr. Gapen filed an expert report from Dr. Jerry Jacob
    as exhibit 19. Dr. Jacob opined that Mr. Gapen did not develop erythema
    multiforme or Stevens-Johnson syndrome. In Dr. Jacob’s assessment, Mr. Gapen
    suffered an SSLR that aggravated his UC. New expert instructions were issued in
    light of the new diagnosis and significant aggravation claim. See orders, issued
    Jan. 27, 2020 and Feb. 26, 2020.
    
          Subsequently, on May 4, 2020, Mr. Gapen filed his amended petition,
    pleading a significant aggravation of his underlying UC. Am. Pet., filed May 4,
    2020, at 1. The same day, Mr. Gapen filed an expert report from Dr. John Santoro
    as exhibit 31. Dr. Santoro opined the PCV-13 vaccine caused Mr. Gapen to
    develop an SSLR and a subsequent significant aggravation of his underlying UC.
    Dr. Santoro also signaled that molecular mimicry played a role in Mr. Gapen’s
    medical complications.
    
           On October 2, 2020, the Secretary filed expert reports from Dr. Emanual
    Maverakis as exhibit A and Dr. Randy Longman as exhibit C, responding to Mr.
    Gapen’s experts. Dr. Maverakis opined that Mr. Gapen had severe UC which was
    not well controlled until starting Humira, and that Mr. Gapen’s symptoms are
    better explained by his underlying disease. Dr. Longman concurred, explaining
    UC management and why IBD associated joint inflammation explains Mr. Gapen’s
    post-vaccination symptoms. Both experts disputed the logic of Mr. Gapen’s
    SSLRs theory.
    
          In the subsequent status conference, the undersigned informed Mr. Gapen
    that Dr. Santoro had passed away. Mr. Gapen indicated that he would file another
    expert report. See order, issued Oct. 26, 2020.
    
                                            12
           On December 22, 2020, Mr. Gapen filed a supplemental report from Dr.
    Jacob as exhibit 45. In a status report the same day, Mr. Gapen indicated he would
    retain another expert to substitute for Dr. Santoro. ECF 51. However, in a
    subsequent status report, Mr. Gapen stated he would not be filing any more expert
    reports and instead moved for a determination of entitlement based on the record.
    See Pet’r’s Status Rep., filed Mar. 19, 2021.
    
           As such, the undersigned issued a briefing order on April 13, 2021. Mr.
    Gapen filed additional medical records on May 28, 2021. Mr. Gapen filed his
    brief, stylized as a motion for a ruling on the record, on July 26, 2021. Mr.
    Gapen’s brief is 25 pages and discussed only a few of the articles his experts cited.
    The Secretary filed his response on October 1, 2021. The Secretary’s brief is 46
    pages and thoroughly discusses the articles relied on by Mr. Gapen’s experts. Mr.
    Gapen filed a 5-page reply on November 1, 2021.
    
    IV.   Summary of Expert Witnesses’ Qualifications and Opinions
    
          A.     Petitioner’s Expert, Dr. Jerry Jacob
    
           Mr. Gapen submitted reports from Jerry Jacob, a specialist in infectious
    diseases. Dr. Jacob is board-certified in internal medicine and infectious diseases.
    He is a practicing infectious disease physician. Exhibit 20 at 2; exhibit 19 at 1. He
    is an assistant professor of clinical medicine at the University of Pennsylvania.
    Exhibit 19 at 1. Dr. Jacob’s first report, exhibit 19, will be discussed prior to his
    responsive report, exhibit 45.
    
           Initially, Dr. Jacob summarizes Mr. Gapen’s pertinent medical history.
    Exhibit 19 at 2-5. Next, Dr. Jacob reviews potential diseases discussed during the
    course of Mr. Gapen’s treatment. Erythema multiforme (“EM”) and Stevens-
    Johnson Syndrome (“SJS”), Dr. Jacob explains, are disorders of the skin and/or
    internal lining of body cavities, resulting from damages caused by the immune
    system, often triggered by infections or drugs. Exhibit 19 at 6.
    
           Serum sickness, he explains, is characterized as an acute reaction mediated
    by the immune system “that occurs 1-2 weeks after exposure to a non-human
    protein (eg, sheep anti-venom used for snakebites) with cardinal features of fever,
    rash, and arthralgia.” Exhibit 19 at 9. Dr. Jacob notes the rashes often consist of
    “hive-like lesions that gradually expand, leaving a central clearing or central purple
    color, and most evident on the abdomen or lower legs.” Id. at 10; exhibit 30
    
                                             13
    (Wener).10 Dr. Jacob asserts that prior exposure to the protein can promote a
    quicker reaction. Id. at 9-10. An SSLR is an acute reaction with similar clinical
    findings. However, Dr. Jacob explains it is caused by different mechanisms and
    typically occurs in response to medication. Id. at 10.
    
           Dr. Jacob also notes that SSLRs have “some overlapping clinical findings
    and pathogenic mechanisms” to cutaneous vasculitis, “which has been reported in
    association with ulcerative colitis.” Id. at 10. Furthermore, universally accepted
    diagnostic criteria for SSLR (and serum sickness) do not exist. Id. Diagnosis is
    often based on finding rash, fever, arthralgias, and myalgias manifesting with
    temporal relation to a potential inciting agent.
    
           To differentiate the diagnoses, Dr. Jacob reviewed medical literature
    discussing EM, SJS, and dermatologic issues. See exhibits 21-27. Dr. Jacob
    opines the lesions on Mr. Gapen’s thighs have features suggestive of purpura and
    concludes they do not resemble the lesions defined in the EM literature. Exhibit 19
    at 11. Similarly, the lesions are inconsistent with manifestation of SJS. Id. For
    these and other reasons, Dr. Jacob concludes Mr. Gapen did not suffer from EM or
    SJS.
    
           Rather, Dr. Jacob assesses Mr. Gapen’s presentation as most consistent with
    an SSLR. Dr. Jacob notes that drugs are the primary etiology for SSLRs, and that
    SSLRs typically have a short duration. Id. at 10-11. As such, he opines the
    prolonged hospitalization course is better explained “by a flare of an extraintestinal
    manifestation of ulcerative colitis (eg, cutaneous vasculitis and/or IBD associated
    arthritis).” Id. In other words, Dr. Jacob indicates Mr. Gapen developed an SSLR
    which prompted his hospitalization, and his subsequent treatment and relapses are
    due to an exacerbation of his UC. Id. at 12.
    
          Dr. Jacob provides medical literature in support of his position. SSLRs have
    been associated with rabies vaccines, and, less often, with influenza, tetanus, and
    pneumococcal vaccines. Id. at 10; exhibit 28 (Hengge et al. letter to editor);11
    exhibit 29 (Chiong et al. case report).12
    
    
           10
            Mark H. Wener, Serum sickness and serum sickness-like reactions, UpToDate, Post,
    TW (Ed) (2014).
           11
             Hengge UR, et al., Severe serum sickness following pneumococcal vaccination in an
    AIDS patient, 17 INT’L J. OF STD & AIDS 210 (2006).
    
                                                 14
           B.     Petitioner’s Expert, Dr. John J. Santoro
    
           Mr. Gapen also presented a report from a second expert, John J. Santoro, a
    gastroenterologist. Before the opportunity to submit a responsive report, Dr.
    Santoro had passed away in 2020. See order, issued Oct. 26, 2020. Dr. Santoro
    was board-certified in internal medicine and gastroenterology. Exhibit 32 at 2.
    His practice focused on treating inflammatory bowel disease (“IBD”) and he held a
    clinical associate professorship at Rowan University School of Osteopathic
    Medicine. Exhibit 31 at 1-2.
    
            After summarizing the relevant medical history, Dr. Santoro’s report
    provides background on IBD and two of its major subsets, UC and Crohn’s disease
    (“CD”). Exhibit 31 at 6-7. Dr. Santoro explains that UC is a chronic inflammatory
    bowel disease characterized by inflammation of the large intestine. Id. at 6. When
    the inner lining of the intestine becomes inflamed, ulcers may form on the surface.
    Id. As such, the extraintestinal manifestations can affect the skin, eyes, and joints.
    Id. The inflammation can range from mild to severe, causing abdominal pain and
    diarrhea. The exact cause(s) of IBD are not known. Similarly, the pathogenesis of
    UC and its flares is not clear, though some argue “that loss of tolerance against the
    indigenous enteric flora is the central event in IBD pathogenesis.” Id. The clinical
    course of UC can range from “a quiescent course with prolonged periods of
    remission to fulminant disease requiring intensive medical treatment or surgery.”
    Id. at 11. Stopping a medication that is controlling the disease can result in an
    exacerbation. Id.
    
           Dr. Santoro next discusses molecular mimicry as a mechanism that may
    cause autoimmune diseases after vaccination. Id. at 7-9. In this context, Dr.
    Santoro discusses a case report regarding cytophagic histiocytic panniculitis after
    H1N1 vaccination. Exhibit 38 (Pauwels et al. case report).13 Dr. Santoro also
    notes reports of several flares of pre-existing IBD in patients who received an HPV
    vaccination. Exhibit 40 (Jacobson et al.).14 Dr. Santoro also cites the Gardasil
    
    
           12
           Fabian J.K. Chiong, et al., Serum sickness-like reaction after influenza vaccination,
    BMJ CASE REP 1 (2015). This article was also submitted as exhibit 49.
           13
             C. Pauwels, et al., Cytophagic Histiocytic Panniculitis after H1N1 Vaccination: A Case
    Report and Review of the Cutaneous Side Effects of Influenza Vaccines, 222 DERMATOLOGY 217
    (2011).
    
                                                  15
    vaccine package insert, which reports autoimmune diseases during the post-
    marketing experience.
    
            According to Dr. Santoro’s analysis, the PCV-13 vaccine triggered an
    autoantibody against Mr. Gapen’s intestinal epithelial cells via molecular mimicry.
    Id. at 9. Dr. Santoro opines that molecular mimicry may cause the exacerbation of
    IBD within one to twenty weeks after vaccination. Id. at 10.
    
           Dr. Santoro also endorses Dr. Jacob’s SSLR theory, suggesting an SSLR
    accounted for an “ongoing” exacerbation of Mr. Gapen’s UC. Id. In support, Dr.
    Santoro references a case report of a serum sickness-like syndrome as the first
    manifestation of IBD, in which laboratory findings suggested immune complex
    formation as the cause of the issue. Id. at 9-10; exhibit 42 (Kaddourah et. al).15
    Dr. Santoro explains that “immune complex formation with complement activation
    often plays a key role in the pathophysiology of [SSLRs]. . . .” Exhibit 31 at 10.
    
           In sum, Dr. Santoro argues that pre-vaccination, Mr. Gapen had well
    controlled colitis in remission and was in “perfectly good health.” Exhibit 31 at 4.
    After the PCV-13 vaccination, Dr. Santoro opines, Mr. Gapen’s UC flares were
    significantly altered, representing a substantial aggravation of the underlying
    condition. Dr. Santoro notes the rashes and arthritic pain were more persistent
    after vaccination and that Mr. Gapen’s mental health deteriorated.
    
           C.     Respondent’s Expert, Dr. Emanual Maverakis
    
          The Secretary submitted a report from Dr. Emanual Maverakis, an
    immunologist. Exhibit A at 1. Dr. Maverakis is board-certified in dermatology.
    Exhibit B at 2. He specializes in seeing patients with immune mediated diseases,
    and holds a professorship at the University of California, Davis. Exhibit A at 1.
    
           Dr. Maverakis’s summary of Mr. Gapen’s medical history is mostly
    congruent with petitioner’s experts’ recitations. Exhibit A at 3-8. However, the
    parties’ positions diverge with their interpretations of the medical records.
           14
              Denise L. Jacobson, et al., Immunogenicity and Tolerability to Human Papillomavirus-
    like Particle Vaccine in Girls and Young Women with Inflammatory Bowel Disease, 19
    INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE 1441 (2013).
           15
              Osama Kaddourah, Mouhanna A. Ghanimeh & Fadi Hamid, A case report of serum
    sickness-like syndrome as the first manifestation of inflammatory bowel disease IBD, 3 AM. J.
    DIGEST. DIS. 38 (2016).
                                                  16
           To start, Dr. Maverakis disagrees with the assessments that Mr. Gapen was
    in good health prior to vaccination. Instead, Dr. Maverakis indicates Mr. Gapen
    had residually active severe ulcerative colitis and “was especially poised to have a
    rebound flare of his disease.” Exhibit A at 9-10. For support, Dr. Maverakis
    references the Truelove and Witts criteria, which are used to grade the severity of
    UC. Exhibit A tab 2 (Truelove & Witts).16 These criteria are utilized by the
    American Gastroenterological Association (“AGA”). Exhibit A tab 1 (Ko et al.).17
    The Truelove manuscript assesses “severe” ulcerative colitis by the following
    criteria:
    
                  Severe diarrhoea [sic] (six or more motions a day) with
                  macroscopic blood in stools. Fever (mean evening
                  temperature more than 99.5° F. (37.5° C.), or a
                  temperature of 100° F. (37.8° C.), or more on at least two
                  days out of four). Tachycardia (mean pulse rate more than
                  90 per minute). Anaemia [sic] (haemoglobin [sic] 75% or
                  less—allowance made for recent transfusion. E.S.R. much
                  raised (more than 30 mm. in one hour).
    
    In contrast, “mild” UC is characterized by “Mild diarrhoea [sic] (four or less
    motions a day) with no more than small amounts of macroscopic blood in stools.
    No fever. No tachycardia. Anaemia [sic] not severe. E.S.R. not raised above 30
    mm. in one hour.” Finally, “moderately severe” is defined as an intermediate
    between mild and severe.
    
          With these definitions, Dr. Maverakis next points to Dr. Van Handel’s
    February 22, 2016 records. Dr. Van Handel recorded that in late December 2015,
    Mr. Gapen had “abdominal pain in the lower quadrants, nausea, bloody diarrhea,
    urgency, and mucus discharge per rectum. He lost 20 pounds.” Exhibit 5 at 1.
    Although the number of motions per day and the amount of blood in stools is not
    provided, Dr. Maverakis offers this record as support that Mr. Gapen had severe
    ulcerative colitis. In addition, Dr. Maverakis highlights Mr. Gapen’s February 12,
    2016 visit to Fairview Clinics, in which occult blood in stool was noted. Exhibit A
    
           16
            S.C. Truelove & L.J. Witts, Cortisone in Ulcerative Colitis Final Report on a
    Therapeutic Trial, 2 BR. MED. J. 4947 (1955).
           17
            Cynthia Ko et al., AGA Clinical Practice Guidelines on the Management of Mild-to-
    Moderate Ulcerative Colitis, 156 GASTROENTEROLOGY 748 (2019).
                                                  17
    at 9. During that visit, Mr. Gapen presented with fever (100.8°F), tachycardia
    (heart rate of 103 bpm), decreased hemoglobin levels, and raised E.S.R. Exhibit A
    at 9; exhibit 4 at 39, 49, 53. Comparing these values to the AGA criteria, Dr.
    Maverakis opines that Mr. Gapen had active severe UC at the time of his
    vaccination, despite not presenting external symptoms. Exhibit A at 12.
    
           Dr. Maverakis also discusses the difficulty of determining the disease’s
    severity. Dr. Maverakis argues that by the time Mr. Gapen was evaluated by Dr.
    Van Handel on February 22, 2016, Mr. Gapen’s visible symptoms had largely
    resolved. Exhibit A at 9. Dr. Maverakis attributes the improvement to the
    prednisone that Mr. Gapen started taking about 10 days before the February 22,
    2016 appointment with Dr. Van Handel.18 For additional support, Dr. Maverakis
    cites to Dr. Van Handel, who noted: “Unfortunately, corticosteroids [were] started
    prior to diagnosis being confirmed or extent of the disease being evaluated. . . .
    Hopefully, a colonoscopy within one week will help confirm the diagnosis prior to
    further medical management decision[s].” Exhibit 5 at 1; exhibit A at 10.
    
           Dr. Maverakis opines the February 25, 2016 colonoscopy, which Dr. Van
    Handel interpreted as evincing “panulcerative colitis,” suggests extensive disease
    throughout the colon. Exhibit A at 10; exhibit 5 at 12. Dr. Maverakis bolsters this
    impression with the biopsies of the ascending, transverse, and descending colon,
    which showed mildly to moderately active chronic colitis consistent with UC.
    Exhibit 5 at 10; exhibit A at 10. Thus, although symptoms appeared to have
    largely resolved, Dr. Maverakis opines Mr. Gapen was not in good health at this
    time. Dr. Maverakis notes that many patients considered to be in clinical remission
    actually have persistent endoscopic inflammation. Exhibit A at 10; exhibit A tab 3
    (Moss article), at 1-2.19
    
           Furthermore, Dr. Maverakis explains Mr. Gapen was likely to experience
    disease exacerbation due to Mr. Gapen’s transitioning treatment course. Exhibit A
    at 10-11. Dr. Maverakis opines that starting February 25, 2016, Mr. Gapen was
    taking two immunosuppressive agents: a tapering dose of prednisone and a high
    dose of Lialda. “While his symptoms appeared to be well-controlled on
    
           18
                Prednisone is a strong anti-inflammatory agent and a fast-acting immunosuppressive
    agent. Exhibit A at 9-10. Long term use of prednisone is associated with deleterious effects and
    thus it is generally not recommended for long-term management of UC. Id.
           19
           Alan C. Moss, Residual Inflammation and Ulcerative Colitis in Remission, 10
    GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY 181 (2014).
    
                                                  18
    prednisone and mesalamine, the question remained would he be well-controlled on
    Lialda monotherapy.” Exhibit A at 10. According to Dr. Maverakis, mesalamine
    is beneficial for mild to moderate UC, see exhibit A tab 1 (Ko et al.), at pdf 1, but
    mesalamine alone would not be effective for treating severe UC. Exhibit A at 11.
    Dr. Maverakis also references Ko et al. to note that certain disease features predict
    an aggressive disease course, even in patients who initially present with mild to
    moderate disease. Exhibit A at 10. These include “age younger than 40 years at
    diagnosis, extensive disease, severe endoscopic activity [ ] extra-intestinal
    manifestations, and elevated inflammatory markers.” Exhibit A tab 1 (Ko), at pdf
    1. For these reasons, Dr. Maverakis opines that following February 25, 2016,
    disease exacerbation was increasingly likely.
    
           Next, the Secretary’s expert responds to Dr. Jacob’s assessment that Mr.
    Gapen’s skin eruptions evince an SSLR. Dr. Maverakis agrees with Dr. Jacob that
    SSLRs are immune-complex mediated reactions that can present with fever, rash,
    and/or arthralgias. Exhibit A at 11. However, he argues the timing and chronicity
    are not consistent with serum sickness. For support, Dr. Maverakis points to a case
    study of health care providers, in which the median onset of serum sickness was 9
    days after receiving a second dose of inactive influenza vaccine. Exhibit A tab 6
    (Apisarnthanarak et al.), at pdf 2-3.20 Another case series showed the average
    onset time of SSLRs was 10 days after a human diploid cell rabies vaccine
    (“HDCRV”) booster. Exhibit A tab 7 (Warrington et al.), at pdf 3.21 Dr.
    Maverakis notes it takes considerable time for an antibody response to develop and
    form immune-complexes and argues experiencing an SSLR two days after
    vaccination is incompatible with adaptive immunity principles. Exhibit A at 11.
    Dr. Maverakis further notes that SSLRs are documented to resolve within a few
    days and are not capable of being a chronic condition. See exhibits A tab 6 and A
    tab 7.
    
           With these bases, Dr. Maverakis attributes Mr. Gapen’s inflammatory
    arthritis and skin eruptions to his UC rather than the vaccination. Dr. Maverakis
    notes that extraintestinal joint manifestations are extremely common in UC
    
           20
              Anucha Apisarnthanarak et al., Serum Sickness-Like Reaction Associated with
    Inactivated Influenza Vaccination among Thai Health Care Personnel: Risk Factors and
    Outcomes, 49 CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES 18, 19-20 (2009).
           21
               Richard J. Warrington et al., Immunologic studies in subjects with a serum sickness-
    like illness after immunization with human diploid cell rabies vaccine, 79 J. ALLERGY &
    CLINICAL IMMUNOLOGY 605, 607 (1987).
    
                                                   19
    patients, “reportedly occurring in 29.8% of patients with pancolitis.” Exhibit A at
    12; exhibit A tab 8 (Rotstein, Entel & Zeviner);22 exhibit A tab 9 (Dorofeyev,
    Vasilenko & Rassokhina), at pdf 1.23 Dr. Maverakis points to Dr. Leonard’s
    August 4, 2016 record for support. Dr. Leonard opined Mr. Gapen had
    inflammatory polyarthropathy associated with the colitis and discounted the
    potential for his inflammatory arthritis to be secondary to a vaccination. Exhibit A
    at 12; exhibit 7 at 3-4.
    
          In sum, Dr. Maverakis opines Mr. Gapen had active UC at the time of
    vaccination, despite not presenting external symptoms. Dr. Maverakis argues a
    chronic serum sickness-like reaction occurring two days after vaccination is
    unlikely. By contrast, it is likely for patients with UC to manifest skin and joint
    symptoms associated with inflammation.
    
           D.     Respondent’s Expert, Dr. Randy Longman
    
          The Secretary also submitted a report from Dr. Randy Longman, a
    gastroenterologist. Exhibit C at 1. Dr. Longman is board-certified in internal
    medicine and gastroenterology. Id. He has provided direct care to over 3000
    patients with inflammatory and non-inflammatory intestinal diseases. Id.
    
          Dr. Longman’s summary of pertinent facts is in accord with the other
    experts’ summaries. Exhibit C at 2-3. Similarly, his summary of UC is in accord
    with Dr. Maverakis’s summary. Exhibit C at 3-4.
    
           Dr. Longman additionally notes factors that may predict the disease course
    and response to medical therapies. Patients diagnosed at younger ages have a
    lower likelihood of steroid-free remission. Id. at 3; exhibit C tab 1 (Ha et al.).24
    This is similar to the literature cited by Dr. Maverakis. Other features associated
    with a poor prognosis include “pan-colitis at diagnosis, severe endoscopic disease,
    
           22
               Jerome Rotstein, Irwin Entel & Barbara Zeviner, Arthritis Associated with Ulcerative
    Colitis, 22 ANN. RHEUM. DIS. 194 (1963).
           23
             A.E. Dorofeyev, I.V. Vasilenko & O.A Rassokhina, Joint extraintestinal
    Manifestations in Ulcerative Colitis, 27 DIGESTIVE DISEASES 502 (2009).
           24
            Christina Y. Ha et al., Patients With Late-Adult-Onset Ulcerative Colitis Have Better
    Outcomes Than Those With Early Onset Disease, 8 CLINICAL GASTROENTEROLOGY &
    HEPATOLOGY 682 (2010).
    
                                                   20
    elevated CRP, and the need for hospitalization.” Exhibit C at 3; see exhibit C tab 2
    (Rubin et al.), at pdf 18.25 Dr. Longman further notes that “deep remission” is the
    preferred outcome, which includes symptomatic remission as well as endoscopic
    healing. Id. at 4. Dr. Longman also discusses IBD associated spondyloarthritis,
    noting joint inflammation is a common symptom of IBD and that joint
    inflammation commonly occurs when intestinal symptoms and inflammation are
    active. Id. at 4, 6.
    
          Next, Dr. Longman responds to Mr. Gapen’s experts’ theories, starting with
    SSLRs. In response to Dr. Santoro’s statement that Mr. Gapen’s “ongoing serum
    sickness like reaction” exacerbated his UC, Dr. Longman argues Mr. Gapen’s
    prolonged post-hospitalization course and joint symptoms are “better explained”
    by UC and IBD-associated arthritis than vaccine-induced SSLR. Exhibit C at 5;
    exhibit 31 at 9 (Dr. Santoro’s report). Dr. Longman argues there is no evidence the
    SSLR was ongoing, and notes that Dr. Santoro’s position is in conflict with Dr.
    Jacob’s report, which notes the pathogenesis of SSLR reflects a short duration.
    Exhibit C at 5; exhibit 19 at 11 (Dr. Jacob’s report). Additionally, Dr. Longman
    argues the Kaddourah case report (raised by Dr. Santoro), in which SSLR was
    noted as a first manifestation of IBD, is not relevant because Mr. Gapen was
    diagnosed with UC prior to vaccination and any subsequent SSLR. Exhibit C at 5.
    
           Dr. Longman next addresses molecular mimicry. He maintains the Pauwels
    case report of histiocytic panniculitis following flu immunization, raised by Dr.
    Santoro, does not support molecular mimicry in this case. Exhibit C at 5. The case
    report showed no evidence of clonal T-cell receptor rearrangement or expansion.
    Exhibit 38 (Pauwels et al. case report) at pdf 3. Dr. Longman thus argues this
    report shows no evidence of a specific T cell response and does not support
    molecular mimicry as a cause. Id.; see exhibit 38 at pdf 3. Additionally, Dr.
    Longman notes the authors also discussed thiomersal as a possible cause of
    immune response. Exhibit 38 at pdf 3. As such, Dr. Longman argues the case
    report is unrelated to Mr. Gapen’s case.
    
           In response to the Jacobson et al. article, in which several flares of pre-
    existing IBD occurred in patients who received HPV vaccination, Dr. Longman
    notes the following caveat from the authors: “both investigators and the [Data
    Safety Monitoring Board] felt that their hospitalizations were due to ongoing active
    disease, and that the vaccine was unlikely to have resulted in the hospitalizations.”
    
           25
           David T. Rubin et al., ACG Clinical Guideline: Ulcerative Colitis in Adults, 114 AM. J.
    GASTROENTEROLOGY 384 (2019).
                                                 21
    Exhibit C at 5; exhibit 40 (Jacobson et al.) at 7. Furthermore, this reference is
    focused on HPV vaccines, not the PCV-13 vaccine. In sum, Dr. Longman argues
    “it is unclear how autoantibodies against epithelial cells would subsequently
    contribute to joint inflammation.” Exhibit C at 6.
    
           Although Dr. Longman does not discuss Mr. Gapen’s prior condition in
    depth, he argues Mr. Gapen’s UC was “incompletely controlled,” and that Mr.
    Gapen’s joint inflammation persists until controlled. Exhibit C at 6. Like Dr.
    Maverakis, Dr. Longman argues the initial improvement in clinical symptoms is
    attributable to prednisone, but intestinal inflammation remained active, as
    evidenced by clinical symptoms and the colonoscopy. Exhibit C at 6. “Although
    the petitioner’s clinical symptoms improved following steroid therapy [exhibit 5 at
    1], mesalamine therapy alone was insufficient to maintain long-term remission as
    evidenced by persistent iron deficiency anemia and thrombocytosis before
    vaccination [exhibit 5 at 18].” Exhibit C at 6. Dr. Longman references the
    September 6, 2016 record to show Mr. Gapen had active UC. The record noted 2-6
    stools per day and the evaluation precipitated the start of anti-TNFα biologic
    therapy (Humira) to control his colitis. Exhibit C at 6; exhibit 5 at 24-25. Dr.
    Longman notes anti-TNFα therapy is recommended for treatment of IBD
    associated joint inflammation. Exhibit C at 7; exhibit C tab 3 (Kumar et al.), at pdf
    7.26
    
           With respect to timing, Dr. Longman argues the joint inflammation that Mr.
    Gapen developed and sustained following the PCV-13 vaccination is consistent
    with the natural history of UC and associated extraintestinal joint inflammation.
    Although initially attributed to Mr. Gapen’s history of an ACL injury, Dr.
    Longman argues Mr. Gapen’s knee pain in February 2016 (exhibit 5 at 1) was
    IBD-associated arthritis. Exhibit C at 6-7. Dr. Longman points to Dr. Leonard’s
    August 2016 evaluation for support. Though Mr. Gapen had some improvement in
    clinical symptoms with prednisone, Dr. Longman states clinical symptoms and
    colonoscopy confirm Mr. Gapen’s symptoms and intestinal inflammation remained
    active. Dr. Longman notes a subsequent examination in December 2016 showed
    improvement “despite persistent active chronic colitis” in biopsies. Exhibit C at 6;
    exhibit 5 at 42. As such, Dr. Longman opines that “petitioner’s joint inflammation
    coincides with the onset of his intestinal inflammation and persists until
    inflammation is under control.” Exhibit C at 6.
    
           26
              Anand Kumar et al., Defining the phenotype, pathogenesis and treatment of Crohn’s
    disease associated spondyloarthritis, 55 J. GASTROENTEROLOGY 667, 673 (2020).
    
                                                 22
           E.       Dr. Jacob’s Supplemental Report
    
           On December 22, 2020, Mr. Gapen filed a supplemental report from Dr.
    Jacob as exhibit 45. Expanding on the causation theory, Dr. Jacob states serum
    sicknesses are caused by immune complexes involving human antibodies and
    foreign protein(s). Id. at 1-2. However, Dr. Jacob notes the mechanism for SSLRs
    is not well understood. Id. at 2. Nonetheless, he notes again that SSLRs have been
    documented to occur after administration of some antibiotics and vaccines.
    (Exhibits 28, 29, 30). Dr. Jacob provides an article reviewing VAERS reports of
    events occurring after vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine,
    which notes some reports of SSLRs within one day of vaccination. Exhibit 47
    (Wise et al.).27 Dr. Jacob also supplies a case report of an SSLR 1-2 days after an
    H1N1 vaccination. Exhibit 48 (Bonds & Kelly article).28 Dr. Jacob also provides
    a letter to the JAMA editor regarding serum sickness and tetanus immunization.
    Exhibit 50 (Daschbach letter).29
    
          Dr. Jacob emphasizes the opinions of the physicians that evaluated Mr.
    Gapen, many of which suggested an immunologic reaction to the PCV-13 vaccine
    occurred. Exhibit 45 at 3-4 (citing exhibit 5 at 1-4, 8-11, 12-15, 23-24).
    Furthermore, Dr. Jacob explains that while SSLRs typically resolve on their own
    within a few days, “a systemic inflammatory process related to an underling
    chronic disease would typically require a more prolonged course of therapy for
    recovery.” Exhibit 45 at 4.
    
           In summary, Dr. Jacob concludes the PCV-13 vaccine caused an SSLR 2-3
    days after administration. This manifested as acute onset of fever, hives-like
    rashes, and ankle swelling. Dr. Jacob opines Mr. Gapen’s UC was under control at
    the time of vaccination, and the vaccine is the likely “immediate cause of his
    symptoms.” Exhibit 45 at 4. Dr. Jacob attributes Mr. Gapen’s subsequent course
    to this inciting inflammatory process and its interaction with the underlying UC.
    
    
           27
            Robert P. Wise et al., Postlicensure Safety Surveillance for 7-Valent Pneumococcal
    Conjugate Vaccine, 292 JAMA 1702 (2004).
           28
             Rana S. Bonds & Brent C. Kelly, Severe Serum Sickness After H1N1 Influenza
    Vaccination, 345 AM. J. MED. SCI. 412 (2013).
           29
                R. J. Daschbach, Serum Sickness and Tetanus Immunization, 220 JAMA 1619 (1972).
    
                                                  23
    V.    Summary and Assessment of the Parties’ Arguments
    
           The parties disagree in several key respects. First, they dispute Mr. Gapen’s
    condition prior to vaccination, namely, the severity of his UC and the sufficiency
    of medications used during that time. Second, they disagree over Mr. Gapen’s
    condition after vaccination. Mr. Gapen argues he suffered an SSLR shortly after
    vaccination, subsequently aggravating his UC such that he experienced new skin
    manifestations, protracted joint pains and swelling, and mental health problems
    stemming from his condition. The Secretary argues Mr. Gapen’s UC was severe
    and inadequately controlled until starting Humira, naturally resulting in flares and
    arthritic pain (i.e. extraintestinal inflammatory manifestations of the UC). The
    Secretary further argues Mr. Gapen did not suffer an SSLR and that an SSLR
    cannot chronically aggravate UC. Third, the parties dispute the reliability of
    molecular mimicry to explain how a PCV-13 vaccine can aggravate UC. These
    topics are addressed below.
    
          A.       Mr. Gapen’s Condition Prior To Administration Of The Vaccine
    
           The parties agree that Mr. Gapen was diagnosed with UC prior to his
    vaccination.30 However, the parties disagree over the severity of Mr. Gapen’s
    condition and whether his condition was well controlled by the medications taken
    during this time. The analysis of this issue considers (1) the pertinent medical
    records, (2) Mr. Gapen’s arguments as presented in reports from experts as well as
    briefs, and (3) the Secretary’s arguments from his brief and expert reports. Based
    upon these factors, a conclusion is reached in section (4) below.
    
                   1.      Recitation of Pertinent Medical Records
    
           Mr. Gapen’s medical history prior to the May 24, 2016 vaccination includes
    prior rashes (including a rash on his leg for “15+ years”), warts, and eczema, as
    well as ACL reconstruction. Notable problems began in early 2016.
    
           On February 12, 2016, Mr. Gapen presented to Fairview Clinic, reporting a
    month history of vomiting, gas, upper abdominal pain, and 20 pounds of weight
    loss. Exhibit 4 at 38-39. Occasional diarrhea was noted but profound blood in
    stool was denied. Id. at 40. He had a fever and elevated heart rate, abnormally
    raised ESR levels and decreased hemoglobin. A CT scan revealed mild changes
    suggestive of colitis. Universal ulcerative colitis with rectal bleeding was listed
    
          30
               Neither party opines as to precisely when Mr. Gapen developed UC.
                                                  24
    under patient’s diagnosis / active problem list. Id. Mr. Gapen was prescribed a
    tapering dose of prednisone, a strong and fast-acting drug, and was referred to
    gastroenterology.
    
          Then on February 22, 2016, Mr. Gapen had his referral visit to Minnesota
    Gastroenterology, where he was evaluated by Dr. Van Handel. The record notes
    symptoms of urgency, bloody diarrhea, and weight loss since December 2015.
    This record is somewhat in conflict with the February 12, 2016 record which
    indicated the symptoms began sometime in January 2016. Nonetheless, it appears
    Mr. Gapen’s UC was active in December 2015 or January 2016.
    
          During the February 22, 2016 visit, Mr. Gapen was assessed with colitis,
    possible IBD. Mr. Gapen’s prednisone dosage was tapered. However, the
    impression note states “[u]nfortunately, corticosteroids [were] started prior to
    diagnosis being confirmed or extent of the disease being evaluated.” Exhibit 5 at
    1. A colonoscopy was scheduled to help confirm diagnosis and inform further
    medical management.
    
           Mr. Gapen underwent a colonoscopy on February 25, 2016. Id. at 8-9. The
    preliminary impressions were colitis and colon polyp. Id at 8. The assessment was
    mild-moderately active chronic colitis consistent with ulcerative colitis. Exhibit 5
    at 10. A May 25, 2016 record from Dr. Van Handel described the colonoscopy as
    showing “panulcerative colitis.” Id. at 12. Mr. Gapen continued taking the
    tapering doses of prednisone.
    
          The medical records indicate Mr. Gapen discontinued / finished his
    prednisone treatment around April 24, 2016. Exhibit 5 at 12 (Dr. Van Handel
    noted in a May 24, 2016 record that Mr. Gapen “has been off prednisone for one
    month”). The next notable medical record is on May 24, 2016, the date of
    vaccination.
    
                2.     Petitioner’s Position
    
           In his brief, Mr. Gapen argues his “pre-existing condition (before the PCV-
    13 vaccination and alleged aggravation) was well controlled colitis- in remission
    on a tapering dose of Prednisone.” Pet’r’s Br. at 5. Mr. Gapen states that prior to
    2016, his medical history was “remarkable only for asthma, eczema, ACL tear with
    reconstructive surgery, skin warts, and a right lower extremity rash diagnosed as
    lichen simplex chronicus in June 2015.” Id.; exhibit 4 at 13-16, 22-26. He was
    active and attending college, but regularly seeing a doctor for UC problems.
                                               25
    Pet’r’s Br. at 6; exhibit 17 at 1 (affidavit). He reports no similar rashes, swelling or
    pain around his body during this time. Pet’r’s Br. at 6; exhibit 17 at 1-2. Mr.
    Gapen represented that prior to vaccination, he was in good health. Exhibit 3 at 1
    (affidavit).
    
           Dr. Santoro similarly stated Mr. Gapen “was in perfectly good health” and
    that his then-current medication “was working perfectly.” Exhibit 31 at 4. Dr.
    Santoro opined he had “well controlled colitis- in remission”. Id. at 12.
    
           Mr. Gapen relies upon Dr. Van Handel’s evaluation of him on the date of
    vaccination. Then, Dr. Van Handel wrote that Mr. Gapen was “quite pleased” with
    the control of his symptoms. Lab values showed improvements, including
    increased hemoglobin and platelet levels, normal CRP, and normalizing WBC.
    Pet’r’s Br. at 21; exhibit 5 at 18-20. In sum, Mr. Gapen’s position is that his UC
    was managed and in remission.
    
                 3.     Respondent’s Position
    
           The Secretary disagrees with the assessments that Mr. Gapen was in good
    health and that his medications were working perfectly. Instead, the Secretary
    argues Mr. Gapen had residually active severe ulcerative colitis and “was
    especially poised to have a rebound flare of his disease.” Exhibit A at 9-10;
    Resp’t’s Br. at 28-34.
    
           Dr. Maverakis references the AGA criteria, which are used to grade the
    severity of UC. Dr. Van Handel recorded that in late December 2015, Mr. Gapen
    presented with “abdominal pain in the lower quadrants, nausea, bloody diarrhea,
    urgency, and mucus discharge per rectum. He lost 20 pounds.” Exhibit 5 at 1. To
    Dr. Maverakis, this record suggests Mr. Gapen’s UC was active then and that he
    was not in good health at that time. Dr. Maverakis argues Dr. Santoro’s opinion
    (that Mr. Gapen was in good health) was premised on the assumption that Mr.
    Gapen’s UC was adequately controlled by mesalamine monotherapy at the time of
    vaccination. In contrast, Dr. Maverakis argues the medications were masking a
    more severe disease state. Exhibit A at 8-11. Similarly, Dr. Longman states “the
    majority of patients respond to initial medical therapy, but develop relapsing
    disease.” Exhibit C at 3; Resp’t’s Br. at 28. Prednisone can be used to induce
    remission but is not recommended for maintenance therapy. Exhibit C at 4.
    
          Dr. Maverakis opines that Mr. Gapen’s UC was also active at the time of his
    vaccination, despite not presenting external symptoms. Exhibit A at 12. Dr.
                                              26
    Longman argues Mr. Gapen’s UC was “incompletely controlled.” Exhibit C at 4,
    6.
    
                4.     Conclusions
    
           The divergence of opinions regarding Mr. Gapen’s health prior to
    vaccination appears to be due to the fact that Mr. Gapen was receiving treatment
    for his UC. In other words, the treatment plan complicates an assessment of Mr.
    Gapen’s health during this timeframe. As acknowledged by Dr. Van Handel, post-
    facto assessments are complicated by ongoing treatment protocols.
    
          Nonetheless, the record on the whole supports the finding, on a more likely
    than not basis, that Mr. Gapen had moderately severe active UC prior to and at the
    time of vaccination. An evaluation of Mr. Gapen’s health at multiple pre-
    vaccination milestones alongside discussion of UC generally follows. The
    undersigned considers (a) Mr. Gapen’s initial UC flare using diagnostic criteria
    supplied by the experts, (b) the February 2016 colonoscopy, and (c) reports of
    improvement in May 2016.
    
                       a)    Mr. Gapen’s Initial UC Flare and Hospitalization
    
            The initial flare in December 2015 / January 2016 led Mr. Gapen to seek
    treatment. The description of symptoms provided during the February 12, 2016
    visit, based on the AGA criteria relied upon by Dr. Maverakis, suggests severe
    disease. Mild UC does not manifest fever, tachycardia, anemia, or elevated ESR
    levels; rather, these signs are indicative of severe UC. See exhibit A tab 2
    (Truelove & Witts), at pdf 2. The only criteria not clearly met for severe UC is
    severe diarrhea (six or more motions a day) with macroscopic blood in stools.
    Moderately severe UC is defined as simply “Intermediate between severe and
    mild.” Id. Dr. Santoro does not comment on the AGA criteria or provide any
    reference to other criteria in arguing Mr. Gapen’s UC was well controlled. This
    lack of development reduces the persuasiveness of Dr. Santoro’s opinion. See
    Nordwall v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 83 Fed. Cl. 477, 488 (2008) (“The
    Court cannot fault the Special Master for relying on the opinion of one expert
    bolstered by medical literature over the unsupported opinion of another expert.”).
    Thus, the undersigned finds that Mr. Gapen’s condition is better characterized at
    this time as moderately severe UC.
    
    
    
                                            27
                          b)   The February 2016 colonoscopy supports a finding that
                          Mr. Gapen’s UC was moderately severe before vaccination.
    
           To quickly address and manage a disease not fully diagnosed, on February
    12, 2016, doctors prescribed a tapering dose of prednisone and referred Mr. Gapen
    to specialists. On February 22, 2016, Mr. Gapen was evaluated by Dr. Van
    Handel, a gastroenterologist. Mr. Gapen was assessed with colitis. Dr. Van
    Handel acknowledged the prednisone (corticosteroids) would negatively affect
    diagnostic confirmation and disease evaluation. In other words, the prednisone
    could mask symptoms. Thus, a colonoscopy was ordered for further evaluation.
    The February 25, 2016 colonoscopy revealed mild-moderately active chronic
    colitis consistent with UC, later described as panulcerative colitis.
    
           The colonoscopy suggests Mr. Gapen’s colon was in an active disease state,
    and it is strong evidence that Mr. Gapen’s UC was also active in late February
    2016. However, Dr. Santoro does not discuss the significance of this record in
    justifying his position. This omission too reduces the persuasiveness of his
    report.31
    
                          c)      Improvements in symptoms reported in May 2016 were
                          likely to be temporary.
    
           Following the February 25, 2016 colonoscopy, Mr. Gapen continued taking
    the tapering doses of prednisone and was started (at some point prior to or
    contemporaneously with vaccination) on Lialda. That prednisone treatment
    concluded in late April 2016. The lack of medical records during this period
    (February 25 – May 24, 2016) suggests Mr. Gapen’s symptoms were manageable
    and not severe enough to prompt hospitalization. However, when Mr. Gapen
    stopped taking prednisone in April of 2016, his UC was not cured. Without anti-
    inflammatory and immunosuppressive effects of prednisone (or another drug), Mr.
    Gapen’s UC was likely to flare again. Exhibit C at 4. As Dr. Leonard noted, “it
    was about 6-8 weeks after going off the prednisone his bowels started to flare up
    and cause more diarrhea and bloody stools.” Exhibit 7 at 3-4.
    
    
           31
                The lack of other symptoms suggests Mr. Gapen’s condition was improving from the
    December 2015 / January 2016 flare. Exhibit A at 10. These improvements are readily
    attributable to the prednisone treatment, which can improve inflammatory symptoms but would
    not treat the underlying disease. Id. at 9-10. These changes are also consistent with the “waxing
    and waning” course that many UC patients experience. Exhibit 31 at 10.
                                                   28
            By May 24, 2016, Mr. Gapen’s health appeared to be improving since his
    initial UC flare. Mr. Gapen’s hemoglobin levels had risen from 9.0 g/dL to 10.3
    g/dL. Exhibit 5 at 18-20. WBC and CRP levels were normalizing. He was not
    reporting abdominal pain or diarrhea and he had gained back twenty pounds of lost
    weight. Id. at 12.
    
           However, petitioner’s position that Mr. Gapen’s UC was well controlled and
    in remission carries little weight. More likely, between late 2015 and February
    2016, Mr. Gapen’s UC was not well controlled and not in remission. Symptoms
    apparently resolved during the March to May 2016 timeframe, but this was likely
    the initial prednisone treatment managing the symptoms. Any remission would
    likely be temporary given the course of UC. Exhibit C at 3-4; see also exhibit 31
    (Dr. Santoro explaining that IBD “has a waxing and waning course with
    asymptomatic remission period and with episodes of disease where patients present
    with symptoms, such as hematochezia, fever, and abdominal pain”). Furthermore,
    it remained uncertain whether Mr. Gapen would experience subsequent flares after
    transitioning off prednisone. The expected course of Mr. Gapen’s UC would be
    “difficult to predict but would have included periods of remission and flare.”
    Exhibit 31 at 11.
    
           Although Mr. Gapen’s UC was improving in May 2016, any apparent
    remission would likely be due to prednisone treatment. Endoscopic healing was
    not confirmed. Though improving, it is unclear whether Mr. Gapen was in clinical
    remission at the time of vaccination. See exhibit C tab 1 (Ha et al.), at pdf 2
    (defining clinical remission as “an absence of corticosteroids and complete relief of
    colitis symptoms based on the physician’s global assessment and patient report”).
    
          In sum, the undersigned finds that Mr. Gapen’s condition prior to
    vaccination is best characterized as moderately severe ulcerative colitis.
    Furthermore, whether or not Mr. Gapen was in symptomatic remission (absent
    endoscopic healing) would not necessarily predict whether he would experience
    subsequent UC flares.
    
          B.     Did Mr. Gapen Suffer from a Serum Sickness Like Reaction?
    
           When describing Mr. Gapen’s condition following the vaccination, the
    parties view Mr. Gapen’s medical records through competing lenses. Mr. Gapen’s
    experts argue he experienced an SSLR adverse reaction to the PCV-13 vaccine.
    
    
                                             29
    His experts further argue the SSLR aggravated Mr. Gapen’s underlying UC. The
    Secretary’s experts disagree.32
    
           The analysis of this issue considers (1) the pertinent medical records, (2)
    Mr. Gapen’s interpretation of these records as indicating an SSLR, (3) the
    Secretary’s arguments that an SSLR did not occur or aggravate Mr. Gapen’s UC,
    and (4) the Secretary’s arguments that Mr. Gapen’s UC better explains his
    symptoms. Based upon these factors, a conclusion is reached in section (5) below.
    
                  1.     Recitation of Pertinent Medical Records
    
           Three days after the PCV-13 vaccination, on May 27, 2016, Mr. Gapen went
    to the emergency room. He reported that the day prior (May 26, 2016), he
    developed hives on legs and testicles (no hives on hands or feet). A photo
    demonstrates many circular red “coalescing lesions” on the inner thigh. Exhibit 19
    at 3; exhibit 6 at 10. He had a fever, sore throat, and myalgias. Notably, neither
    diarrhea nor abdominal pain were reported. Treating doctors were uncertain
    whether the symptoms were related to the vaccination, sepsis, autoimmune
    disorder, or a viral syndrome. See exhibit 6 at 1-3, 10.
    
           On May 28, 2016, Mr. Gapen was diagnosed by Dr. Worku with a drug
    reaction: EM related to PCV-13 vaccination. Exhibit 6 at 12; see also id. at 13-14
    (“classic for erythema multiforme”). However, the parties agree that Mr. Gapen
    did not suffer EM. Upon discharge on May 29, 2016, most symptoms had
    resolved. Differential diagnoses were considered. Exhibit 6 at 23-24. Mr. Gapen
    continued taking Lialda. During a June 2, 2016 follow-up visit at Fairview Clinic,
    a treater noted “Serum sickness, subsequent encounter.” Exhibit 4 at 62. No
    rashes were noted. Subsequent lab values on July 12, 2016 were acceptable and
    suggested improvement. Exhibit 5 at 21.
    
            On August 4, 2016, Mr. Gapen saw Dr. Leonard for a rheumatology
    evaluation. Dr. Leonard felt Mr. Gapen’s symptoms were “highly likely
    inflammatory arthritis and tendinitis associated with the colitis. . . . I don’t think
    the inflammatory arthritis [is] secondary to the pneumonia vaccination.” Exhibit 7
    at 3-4.
    
    
    
           32
              The parties ultimately agreed that Mr. Gapen did not have EM or SJS from the
    vaccination. Pet’r’s Br. at 19; Resp’t’s Br. at 11.
                                                 30
          Mr. Gapen had a follow-up appointment with Dr. Van Handel on September
    6, 2016. Dr. Van Handel wrote Mr. Gapen had previously been diagnosed with
    SJS secondary to Prevnar vaccine. Exhibit 5 at 24. But, the parties agree Mr.
    Gapen did not have SJS. Daily prednisone treatment resumed and Humira was
    discussed. Exhibit 5 at 24-25. Colon biopsies on September 15, 2016 were
    suggestive of improvement, noting “mildly active chronic colitis.” Id. at 34. Mr.
    Gapen also testified that he broke out in a painful rash in late September 2016.
    Exhibit 3 at 2-3. Then, on October 11, 2016, Mr. Gapen was started on Humira.
    He had been feeling better by this visit. Exhibit 5 at 38-39.
    
          After starting Humira, Mr. Gapen’s symptoms were better managed.
    Medical records were not generated between December 2016 and December 2017.
    Swelling was almost completely gone by March 2017 and flareups were milder.
    Exhibit 3 at 3. However, Mr. Gapen reported mental health issues that escalated in
    December 2017 and January 2018. Exhibit 3 at 3-5; exhibit 6 at 226; exhibit 4 at
    74.
    
          Dr. Ghattaura saw Mr. Gapen saw on February 13, 2018, noting: “He might
    have gotten serum sickness like reaction to Prevnar vaccine but those symptoms
    should not persist even a year later.” Exhibit 10 at 4. Dr. Ghattaura prescribed
    Plaquenil. Exhibit 10 at 31-32. Near resolution of joint aches was reported on
    November 20, 2018.
    
          A May 7, 2019 colonoscopy found mucosal healing throughout the colon
    with no inflammation. Exhibit 15 at 14. On June 3, 2019, Dr. Van Handel
    recorded Mr. Gapen’s UC was “in clinical and endoscopic remission on Humira
    every 10-day dosing.” Id. at 21.
    
                2.     Petitioner’s Position Regarding SSLR
    
           Mr. Gapen argues his medication was “working perfectly” at the time of
    vaccination. Pet’r’s Br. at 7. Accordingly, he argues an SSLR best explains his
    hospitalization course and subsequent symptoms.
    
          Mr. Gapen notes hives, fever, swellings, myalgias, and related symptoms
    prompted his hospitalization on May 27, 2016. He highlights the lack of GI
    symptoms and notes instances where treaters characterized his symptoms as a
    “drug reaction,” “immune response,” and “adverse reaction.” Id.
    
    
                                            31
          Following the late May 2016 hospitalization, Mr. Gapen next notes swelling
    and joint aches periodically, prompting a visit to a rheumatology specialist on
    August 4, 2016 and Dr. Van Handel on September 6, 2016. Pet’r’s Br. at 7-8.
    Then he discusses mental health problems in December 2017. The additional
    rashes and joint pains are mentioned in passing. Id. at 8-9.
    
           Dr. Jacob provides a review of EM and SJS and explained why they are
    inapplicable diagnoses for Mr. Gapen’s condition in late May 2016. See exhibit 19
    at 6-9, 11-12. Instead, Dr. Jacob opines Mr. Gapen experienced a serum sickness-
    like reaction, which best explains Mr. Gapen’s hospitalization course and
    subsequent symptoms. Exhibit 19 at 12; see also exhibit 45 at 4 (the “most likely
    explanation is that the pneumococcal vaccine was the immediate cause of his
    symptoms.”). Dr. Santoro also endorsed this explanation as “very probable.”
    Exhibit 31 at 9. According to Dr. Jacob, there was a “lack of any other notable
    changes in medication” that could explain the symptoms. Exhibit 45 at 3.
    
           Dr. Jacob explains that SSLRs do not have universally accepted diagnostic
    criteria, though diagnosis often follows rash with hive-like lesions, fever, myalgias,
    and arthralgias occurring proximally to an exposure or inciting agent. Exhibit 19
    at 10, 12. Drugs are the primary etiology. Id. at 10. Dr. Jacob provides medical
    literature that demonstrate SSLRs have been associated (albeit rarely) with
    pneumococcal and other vaccines. Id.; see exhibit 28 (Hengge et al. letter to
    editor); see also exhibit 29 (Chiong et al. case report). Dr. Jacob identifies Mr.
    Gapen’s condition following vaccination as consistent with literature reports of
    SSLRs. Exhibit 19 at 11-12.
    
           Dr. Jacob states serum sickness is an acute immune system reaction that
    occurs one to two weeks after exposure to a non-human protein. Exhibit 19 at 9.
    As he concedes, here, “the temporal relation between the potential exposure and
    the reaction is shorter than might be expected.” Exhibit 19 at 12. However,
    “this would not exclude the diagnosis.” Id. To address this issue, Dr. Jacob offers
    post-licensure safety surveillance which shows three VAERS reports of SSLRs
    within one day of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination. Exhibit 47 (Wise et al.), at
    pdf 1, 4. Dr. Jacob also notes serum sickness and SSLRs have been reported
    within a few days with other vaccines. Exhibits 48, 49, 50. Dr. Jacob also notes
    the “possibility” that Mr. Gapen had been previously sensitized to a constituent of
    
    
    
    
                                             32
    the vaccine.33 However, this opinion rests on speculative grounds and is not
    persuasive without proof of a prior exposure to a specific protein.
    
           Mr. Gapen emphasizes the abrupt development of symptoms previously
    unassociated with his UC, arguing this difference suggests an aggravation via
    SSLR. Pet’r’s Br. at 12; exhibit 31 at 10; exhibit 45 at 3. However, Dr. Jacob
    concedes that SSLRs typically resolve on their own within a few days. To support
    the aggravation theory, he opines that here, in contrast, “a systemic inflammatory
    process related to an underlying chronic disease would typically require a more
    prolonged course of therapy for recovery.” Id. at 4. Dr. Santoro states Mr.
    Gapen’s “ongoing serum sickness like reaction . . . accounted for his exacerbation
    of ulcerative colitis.” Exhibit 31 at 9.
    
                  3.      Respondent’s Position regarding SSLR
    
           The Secretary argues the evidence does not support a finding that Mr. Gapen
    suffered an SSLR. Resp’t’s Br. at 11-18. The Secretary similarly argues Mr.
    Gapen has not explained how an SSLR could significantly aggravate UC. Id. at
    18.
    
           Dr. Maverakis concedes that SSLRs “are a well-documented adverse event
    of vaccination” but notes “they take time to develop.” Exhibit A at 11. For
    support, he raises a case series of SSLR reports in health care providers following
    influenza vaccination, noting the median onset time was 9 days after receiving
    their second dose. Id.; exhibit A tab 6 (Apisarnthanarak et al.). As such, Dr.
    Maverakis opines that two days would be “an exceedingly short time to develop
    serum sickness” “[e]ven in patients who receive annual influenza vaccinations[.]”
    Exhibit A at 11. This is because “it takes considerable time for an antibody
    response to be mounted.” Id. Thus, Dr. Maverakis argues the timing is not
    consistent with an SSLR because it would take more than two days for an antibody
    response to develop and form immune complexes. Exhibit A at 11.
    
          Furthermore, the Secretary’s experts note the chronicity of symptoms is not
    consistent with an SSLR. Dr. Longman plainly states: “There is no evidence to
    
           33
              However, Dr. Jacob does not provide support that Mr. Gapen had prior sensitization to
    a vaccine component. Dr. Jacob speculates that Mr. Gapen may have had prior exposure to the
    conjugate protein of PCV-13 (a nontoxic variant of diphtheria toxin) through a routinely
    recommended conjugate meningococcal vaccine. Exhibit 45 at 2. But, no further support is
    provided.
                                                  33
    suggest that the SSLR was ongoing as Dr. Santoro suggests.” Exhibit C at 5. Dr.
    Maverakis (in agreement with Dr. Jacob) states SSLRs resolve within 2-6 days,
    often without any treatment. Exhibit A at 11; exhibit A tab 6 (Apisarnthanarak et
    al.); exhibit A tab 7 (Warrington et al.). Accordingly, Dr. Maverakis opines it is
    “virtually impossible for [Mr. Gapen] to have developed a chronic vaccine-
    associated serum sickness-like disease.” Exhibit A at 11.
    
                 4.    Respondent’s Position regarding Alternative Explanation
    
          The Secretary argues Mr. Gapen’s post-vaccination clinical course is
    consistent with the expected clinical course of UC and that the vaccine was not a
    “substantial factor” in aggravating the UC. Respt’s Br. at 27-28 (noting Sharpe
    prohibits a special master from “requiring petitioner ‘to prove her expected
    outcome and that her post-vaccination condition is worse than this expected
    outcome.’ 964 F.3d at 1082.”), 33-34. As such, the Secretary argues Mr. Gapen’s
    symptoms are best attributed to his UC.
    
           Dr. Maverakis notes it is “extremely common” for UC patients to develop
    extraintestinal skin and joint manifestations. Exhibit A at 12. Dr. Longman
    concurs and argues that Mr. Gapen’s hospitalization and associated joint symptoms
    are more likely explained by his underlying UC and IBD-associated arthritis.
    Exhibit C at 5. Noting Mr. Gapen’s risk factors and that inadequate control with
    medicine is a major reason for flares, Dr. Longman opines that symptomatic
    remission alone was not proof of a healed colon. Id. at 3-4. For Dr. Longman, Mr.
    Gapen’s symptoms coincide with onset of intestinal inflammation and persist until
    the inflammation is controlled. Id. at 6. In sum, the Secretary argues Mr. Gapen’s
    condition after vaccination is consistent with the clinical course of waxing and
    waning UC, “especially after weaning off prednisone treatment” and starting
    “mesalamine monotherapy.” Resp’t’s Br. at 32, 33.
    
                 5.    Conclusions
    
           For the reasons that follow, the undersigned is not persuaded that Mr. Gapen
    suffered an SSLR or that an SSLR can cause ongoing complications.
    
          When it is biologically plausible that a vaccination could have caused an
    onset of a disease, evidence is still required to demonstrate the disease’s onset is
    within the time which one would expect to see such onset. Pafford v. Sec’y of
    Health & Hum. Servs., 451 F.3d 1352, 1356-58 (2006). For the sake of simplicity,
    the undersigned will assume a pneumococcal vaccine can cause an SSLR. This
                                                34
    assumption does not meaningfully affect the outcome of the case because even
    with this assumption, other aspects of Mr. Gapen’s position that he suffered an
    SSLR remain unpersuasive.
    
           The undersigned understands that serum sickness is a hypersensitivity
    reaction occurring after exposure to foreign antigens, in which immune complexes
    are formed, deposited in tissues, and then activated. Exhibit A tab 6
    (Apisarnthanarak et al.), at pdf 1. As stated by Dr. Maverakis, these processes
    mean that development of SSLRs takes multiple days.
    
          To address the early onset issue, Dr. Jacob speculated about prior exposures.
    Exhibit 45 at 2. As discussed above, Dr. Maverakis persuasively undermines this
    speculative argument.
    
          Dr. Jacob also provided case reports involving multiple vaccines and rapid
    onset SSLRs, and a study looking at VAERS reports. In general, case reports
    provide little, if any, information helpful to determining causation because they
    present only a temporal sequence of events in which the vaccination preceded an
    adverse health event. See K.O. v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., No. 13-472V,
    2016 WL 7634491, at *11-12 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. July 7, 2016) (discussing
    appellate precedent on case reports); see also Porter v. Sec’y of Health & Hum.
    Servs., No. 99-639V, 2008 WL 4483740, at *13 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Oct. 2,
    2008), set aside on other grounds by Rotoli v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 89
    Fed. Cl. 71 (2009), reinstated, 663 F.3d 1242, 1254 (Fed. Cir. 2012) (stating the
    “special master’s decision reveals a thorough and careful evaluation of all of the
    evidence, including . . . reports and medical literature”); W.C. v. Sec’y of Health &
    Hum. Servs., No. 07-456V, 2011 WL 4537887, at *13 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Feb.
    22, 2011) (“[C]ase reports are generally weak evidence of causation because [they]
    cannot distinguish a temporal relationship from causal relationship.”), mot. for rev.
    denied, 100 Fed. Cl. 440 (2011), aff’d, 704 F.3d 1352 (Fed. Cir. 2013).
    
           Mr. Gapen developed a rash within two days of the PCV-13 vaccine.
    However, persuasive evidence shows that the biologic processes to develop a
    serum sickness-like reaction takes multiple days. Exhibit 48 (Bonds & Kelly
    article), at pdf 2; exhibit A tab 6 (Apisarnthanarak et al.), at pdf 1-3. Thus, the
    rapidity of onset tends to undermine the argument that Mr. Gapen suffered an
    SSLR in May 2016. See Bazan v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 539 F.3d 1347,
    1352 (2008) (ruling that a special master was not arbitrary in finding that a
    condition occurred too quickly after a vaccination to have been caused by the
    vaccination).
                                             35
           A second reason for rejecting Mr. Gapen’s claim that he suffered an SSLR is
    that the doctors who treated him did not concur on this diagnosis. The opinions of
    treating doctors can be quite probative. Cappizano v. Sec’y of Health & Hum.
    Servs., 440 F.3d 1317, 1326 (Fed. Cir. 2006). The views of treating doctors about
    the appropriate diagnosis are often persuasive because the doctors have direct
    experience with the patient whom they are diagnosing. See McCulloch v. Sec’y of
    Health & Hum. Servs., No. 09-293V, 2015 WL 3640610, at *20 (Fed. Cl. Spec.
    Mstr. May 22, 2015). However, the views of a treating doctor are not absolute,
    Snyder v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 88 Fed. Cl. 706, 745 n.67 (2009), even
    on the question of diagnosis, R.V. v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 127 Fed. Cl.
    136, 141 (2016), appeal dismissed, No. 16-2400 (Fed. Cir. Oct. 26. 2016). The
    views of treating physicians should also be weighed against other, contrary
    evidence present in the record—including conflicting opinions among such
    individuals. Hibbard v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 100 Fed. Cl. 742, 749
    (2011) (finding that it is not arbitrary or capricious for special masters to weigh
    competing treating physicians’ conclusions against each other), aff’d, 698 F.3d
    1355 (Fed. Cir. 2012); Veryzer v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., No. 06-522V,
    2011 WL 1935813, at *17 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. Apr. 29, 2011), mot. for rev.
    denied, 100 Fed. Cl. 344, 356-57 (2011), aff’d without op., 475 Fed. App’x 765
    (Fed. Cir. 2012).
    
           Admittedly, the views of the treating doctors are a complicated topic
    because the doctors discussed conditions, such as Stevens-Johnson syndrome, that
    Mr. Gapen did not have. See, e.g., exhibit 5 at 24, 38, 46, 54 (Dr. Van Handel
    stating Mr. Gapen was diagnosed with SJS); exhibit 51 at 93 (PA-C McGuigan did
    “not suspect a recurrent or prolonged SJS”); exhibit 6 at 10 (Dr. Yazigi considering
    adverse reactions versus “sepsis/SIRS”); exhibit 6 at 14 (Dr. Worku assessing
    symptoms as “classic for erythema multiforme”); exhibit 6 at 23 (Dr. Thorsen
    noting Mr. Gapen “was seen by infectious disease, who felt that he had erythema
    multiforme and an acute immunological reaction to the pneumococcal vaccine”).
    See also Pet’r’s Br. at 22-23; Pet’r’s Rep. at 3-4. But, the parties argued that Mr.
    Gapen did not suffer EM or SJS. Pet’r’s Br. at 19; exhibit 19 at 12; Resp’t’s Br. at
    11; exhibit A at 11.
    
          Nonetheless, some treaters considered the possibility of an SSLR. The
    strongest support for SSLR is found in statements by Kyle Olson, PA-C from the
    Fairview Clinic. After Mr. Gapen was discharged from the hospital and sought
    follow up care at the Fairview Clinic, Mr. Olson noted “Serum sickness,
    
                                            36
    subsequent encounter” during a follow-up visit. Exhibit 4 at 62 (June 2, 2016).34
    Mr. Olson carried that characterization forward during an August 27, 2016 follow-
    up. Exhibit 51 at 106 (“possible serum sickness-like reaction”). However, these
    statements from Mr. Olson are not persuasive because they are conclusory and in
    conflict with other treaters’ assessments and the medical literature. Although these
    records are considered, given the facts of this case, they are not sufficiently
    persuasive evidence to establish Mr. Gapen suffered an SSLR. See Sanchez v.
    Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 152 Fed. Cl. 782, 797, 804-05 (2021), appeal
    docketed, No. 2021-1866 (Fed. Cir. Apr. 21, 2021); Holmes v. Sec’y of Health &
    Hum. Servs., 115 Fed. Cl. 469, 487-89 (2014) (finding the special master did not
    abuse her discretion in evaluating and declining to give substantial weight to
    certain medical records).
    
           Additional support for the claim that Mr. Gapen suffered an SSLR might
    come from Dr. Ghattaura. Dr. Ghattaura opined: “He might have gotten serum
    sickness like reaction to Prevnar vaccine but those symptoms should not persist
    even a year later.” Exhibit 10 at 4 (On February 13, 2018). Dr. Ghattaura’s
    statement carries little support because Dr. Ghattaura also seems to dismiss the
    idea that Mr. Gapen suffered a long-standing SSLR.
    
           A third reason for not crediting the claim of an SSLR concerns its duration.
    Mr. Gapen’s experts maintain that an SSLR caused chronic problems. Exhibit 19
    at 12; exhibit 31 at 9, 12; but see exhibit 45 at 4 (Dr. Jacob stating: “The most
    likely explanation is that the pneumococcal vaccine was the immediate cause of his
    symptoms.” (emphasis added)). But, this position is inconsistent with medical
    literature that states an SSLR would last only a few days or sometimes a few
    weeks. Exhibits 45 (Dr. Jacob’s report), at 4; exhibit 49 (Chiong et al. case report),
    at pdf 3; exhibit A (Dr. Maverakis’s report), at 11; exhibits A tab 6
    (Apisarnthanarak et al.), at pdf 3-4; exhibit A tab 7 (Warrington et al.). The
    undersigned credits the Secretary’s experts’ opinions that an SSLR is not likely to
    be chronic.
    
           For these reasons, the undersigned finds that Mr. Gapen has failed to
    establish, on a more likely than not basis, that he suffered an SSLR. Because the
    SSLR claim underpins Mr. Gapen’s overall theory to explain how the PCV-13
    
    
           34
             During an August 27, 2019 follow-up, in recounting Mr. Gapen’s medical history, Mr.
    Olson wrote Mr. Gapen’s symptoms were attributed “to possible serum sickness-like reaction”.
    Exhibit 51 at 106.
                                                 37
    vaccine aggravated his UC, additional analysis is not necessary. See Hibbard v.
    Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 698 F.3d 1355, 1364-65 (Fed. Cir. 2012).
    
           Nevertheless, the undersigned also finds that the Secretary has met his
    burden of establishing Mr. Gapen’s worsening of symptoms in May 2016 was a
    result of his underlying severe UC and suboptimal management. The Secretary’s
    experts were persuasive in establishing the factors that increase a person’s risk for
    relapsing disease and flares and were persuasive in establishing that Mr. Gapen had
    many of these risk factors. Examples include: (1) UC diagnosis at a young age; (2)
    pancolitis at diagnosis; (3) severe endoscopic disease; (4) elevated CRP; (5) need
    for hospitalization; and (6) suboptimal control with medicine. See exhibit C at 3-4;
    exhibit C tab 1 (Ha et al.); exhibit C tab 2 (Rubin et al.).
    
          C.   Can a PCV-13 vaccination aggravate an underlying bowel disease
          via Molecular Mimicry?
    
           Mr. Gapen also argues that molecular mimicry played a role in his health
    complications. Pet’r’s Br. at 14-16, 18, 24. The Secretary disagrees. Resp’t’s Br.
    at 12-15, 19, 22.
    
           Dr. Santoro put forward molecular mimicry as a potential mechanism. More
    specifically, he states the PCV-13 vaccine may have triggered an autoantibody
    against Mr. Gapen’s intestinal epithelial cells. Exhibit 31 at 9. In part, Dr. Santoro
    relies on a case report of a patient developing histiocytic panniculitis following
    H1N1 vaccination. Exhibit 38 (Pauwels et al. case report). Additionally, Dr.
    Santoro references a report of flares of pre-existing IBD following HPV
    vaccination. Exhibit 40 (Jacobson et al.). Dr. Santoro opines that molecular
    mimicry may cause the exacerbation of IBD within one to twenty weeks after
    vaccination. Exhibit 31 at 10. Dr. Jacob did not discuss molecular mimicry in
    either of his two reports.
    
           Dr. Longman does not agree that molecular mimicry played a role in this
    case. First, Dr. Longman critiques Dr. Santoro’s reliance on the above case report
    because the disease discussed (panniculitis) is not relevant here. Exhibit C at 5.
    Furthermore, the authors of that report discuss thimerosal, not molecular mimicry,
    as a potential causative factor. Id.; see exhibit 38 at 219. Second, Dr. Longman
    argues the Jacobson article is inapplicable here because although the report notes
    two patients hospitalized with UC exacerbations, the investigators felt the
    
    
                                             38
    hospitalizations were due to active disease rather than vaccination. Exhibit C at 5-
    6; see exhibit 40 at 7.35
    
           Dr. Longman’s criticism of molecular mimicry as applied to this case is
    persuasive. Dr. Santoro does not thoroughly explain the basis for his opinion or
    his reliance on the Pauwels case report or Jacobson article. Dr. Santoro also stated
    that molecular mimicry could be the cause of illness between one and twenty
    weeks after vaccination. However, Mr. Gapen’s condition seemed worse a few
    days after vaccination and he experienced subsequent improvement. Thus, it is
    unclear how molecular mimicry fits in Mr. Gapen’s case. The lack of development
    reduces the value of Dr. Santoro’s opinion. See Duncan v. Sec’y of Health &
    Hum. Servs., 153 Fed. Cl. 642, 661 (2021) (denying a motion for review and
    finding that the special master was not arbitrary in observing that the reports from
    petitioner’s experts were conclusory); Harrington v. Sec’y of Health & Hum.
    Servs., 139 Fed. Cl. 465, 470 (2018) (denying a motion for review and indicating
    that there was no basis to disturb the special master’s description of petitioner’s
    expert opinion as “unpersuasive, conclusory, and disjointed”).
    
           Furthermore, the amended petition notes Mr. Gapen is pursuing a claim
    based on an SSLR and significant aggravation of his UC. Am. Pet., filed May 4,
    2020, at 1. The theory that molecular mimicry was involved in the development of
    an alleged SSLR (or some separate aggravation of the UC) is undeveloped and
    perplexing. Pet’r’s Br. at 14-16, 18, 24; Pet’r’s Rep. at 2. As such, the
    undersigned does not find Dr. Santoro’s molecular mimicry theory to be
    persuasive.
    
    VI.    Summary of the Special Master’s Evaluation
    
           After reviewing the record as a whole, the undersigned has found that Mr.
    Gapen’s experts’ views of the case were less persuasive than the Secretary’s expert
    opinions. First, Mr. Gapen’s position that he was in good health and well
    controlled on his medications prior to vaccination, as stated by Dr. Santoro, is not
    supported by the record. This faulty premise tends to undermine Mr. Gapen’s
    presentation. The premise also misrepresents Mr. Gapen’s health indicators post-
    vaccination. Second, although Dr. Jacob and Dr. Santoro discussed Mr. Gapen’s
    medical history and supported their opinions, they fail to persuade the undersigned
    (a) that Mr. Gapen did in fact suffer an SSLR within 2 days after vaccination and
    
           35
              However, the investigators also noted they “cannot definitely exclude a role for the
    vaccine in their hospitalizations.”
                                                   39
    (b) that an SSLR can chronically aggravate Mr. Gapen’s underlying UC.
    Furthermore, on a more likely than not basis, it seems that SSLRs resolve within
    days, not months, and that Mr. Gapen has not persuasively explained how an SSLR
    could cause ongoing UC complications. Third, the undersigned also found Dr.
    Santoro’s molecular mimicry theory to be unpersuasive, further weakening
    petitioner’s position. By contrast, Dr. Maverakis’s opinion is more persuasive. On
    a more likely than not basis, it seems Mr. Gapen experienced waxing and waning
    UC symptoms that varied based on evolving treatment protocols.
    
    VII. Loving Analysis
    
           The remaining step is to place these findings into the framework for analysis
    set out by Loving. A special master may evaluate the Althen factors, which
    correspond to Loving factors 4-6, without first considering the first three Loving
    factors. Paluck v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 104 Fed. Cl. 457, 469 (2012),
    aff’d after intervening remand, 786 F.3d 1373 (Fed. Cir. 2015).
    
           Here, as set forth above, Mr. Gapen has failed to meet his burden of proof on
    two aspects of his claim: a medical theory causally connecting the worsening of his
    symptoms to the vaccination and a logical sequence of cause and effect. In
    addition, the Secretary has met his burden of proof on another aspect, that Mr.
    Gapen’s deterioration was due to his pre-existing UC.
    
                 A. A Medical Theory Causally Connecting A Significantly
                    Worsened Condition To The Vaccination
    
           The undersigned understands the fourth prong of the Loving test (the first
    prong of Althen) is to present the general question of whether a particular vaccine
    (here, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine) can significantly aggravate a particular
    condition (here, ulcerative colitis). Mr. Gapen’s experts have raised molecular
    mimicry and SSLR as medical theories causally connecting his allegedly
    aggravated condition to the pneumococcal vaccine.
    
          However, as set forth in section V.C above, Mr. Gapen has not demonstrated
    how molecular mimicry is a persuasive theory to explain how a pneumococcal
    conjugate vaccine can worsen UC. Thus, Mr. Gapen is not entitled to
    compensation.
    
    
    
    
                                             40
                B. A Logical Sequence Of Cause And Effect Showing That The
                   Vaccination Was The Reason For The Significant Aggravation
    
           The fifth prong of the Loving test (the second prong from Althen) requires
    petitioner to show a logical sequence of cause and effect showing that the vaccine
    was the reason for his condition’s significant aggravation. A logical presentation
    would entail showing that petitioner’s reaction to the pneumococcal conjugate
    vaccine was consistent with the theories articulated by his experts. See Hibbard v.
    Sec'y of Health & Hum. Servs., 698 F.3d 1355, 1364 (Fed. Cir. 2012); Dodd v.
    Sec'y of Health & Hum. Servs., 114 Fed. Cl. 43, 52-57 (2013); La Londe v. Sec'y
    of Health & Hum. Servs., 110 Fed. Cl. 184, 205 (2013), aff’d, 746 F.3d 1334 (Fed.
    Cir. 2014).
    
          As an indirect method by which the pneumococcal vaccine could aggravate
    Mr. Gapen’s UC, Mr. Gapen also presented SSLR. However, as explained in
    section V.B.5, above, the development of a rash within 2-3 days of the vaccination
    makes the development of an SSLR unlikely. Furthermore, the experts agree that
    SSLRs typically resolve within days, yet Mr. Gapen has not cited any literature
    explaining how an SSLR could cause ongoing complications or worsen Mr.
    Gapen’s UC. See Resp’t’s Br. at 15-16. Thus, the sequence of events propounded
    by Dr. Jacob is not logical.
    
                C. Contribution, If Any, of Pre-existing Problem
    
           In evaluating a significant aggravation case, special masters may consider
    how the underlying pre-existing disease affected the person’s health. Locane, 685
    F.3d at 1381; Loving, 86 Fed. Cl. at 144 (placing burden on respondent after
    petitioners “successfully put forward such a prima facie case”); Gruber v. Sec’y of
    Health & Hum. Servs., 61 Fed. Cl. 674, 684 (2004) (discussing significant
    aggravation in the context of an on-Table claim). The Secretary bears the burden
    on this issue after a petitioner presents a prima facie case. Sharpe, 964 F.3d at
    1081.
    
           Here, for the reasons explained in section V.B.5 above, the Secretary has
    established that Mr. Gapen’s course is more likely to be the result of his active
    waxing and waning UC. Stated differently, the pneumococcal vaccination was not
    a significant factor in Mr. Gapen’s changed health in and following May 2016.
    
    
    
    
                                            41
    This is an additional and separate reason for finding that Mr. Gapen is not entitled
    to compensation.36
    
                   D. Remaining Loving Factors
    
            Given the findings above, an evaluation of the other factors from the Loving
    test is not required.
    
    VIII. A Disposition on the Papers is Appropriate
    
           Mr. Gapen has requested a ruling on the record. Pet’r’s Mot., filed July 26,
    2021, at 1. While the parties’ views are entitled to some consideration, they do not
    determine whether a hearing will be conducted. Congress authorized and the
    Vaccine Rules indicate special masters to have discretion in determining whether
    to hold a hearing. Kreizenbeck v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., 945 F.3d 1362,
    1365 (Fed. Cir. 2020).
    
           A hearing is not required to adjudicate Mr. Gapen’s case. The parties have
    filed reports from the doctors whom they retained, and petitioner filed the last
    expert report. The parties have also submitted briefs and petitioner filed the last
    brief. Under these circumstances, Mr. Gapen has enjoyed a full and fair
    opportunity to present any evidence and argument he wished.
    
    IX.    Conclusion
    
           For the above stated reasons, Mr. Gapen has not demonstrated the PCV-13
    vaccine caused him to suffer an SSLR and subsequent significant aggravation of
    his underlying UC. Accordingly, the Clerk’s Office is instructed to enter judgment
    against Mr. Gapen unless a motion for review is filed. Information for filing a
    motion for review, including the deadline by which any such motion must be filed,
    is available on the website of the Court of Federal Claims.
    
    
    
           36
               Furthermore, this finding seems to preclude petitioner’s 6-month severity requirement.
    42 U.S.C. § 300aa—11(c)(1)(D). C.f. Snyder v. Sec’y of Health & Hum. Servs., No. 07-59V,
    2011 WL 3022544, *35-36 (Fed. Cl. Spec. Mstr. May 27, 2011) (finding evidence did not
    support that child’s fever immediately after vaccination, which triggered a seizure, caused an
    injury lasting more than six months), rev’d, 102 Fed. Cl. 305 (2011), reinstated on other grounds,
    553 Fed. Appx. 994 (Fed. Cir. 2014).
    
                                                   42
    IT IS SO ORDERED.
    
                             s/Christian J. Moran
                             Christian J. Moran
                             Special Master
    
    
    
    
                        43