dissenting.
In this heated controversy over a 2.5 mile long dead-end rail track, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) has accepted *237an “Offer of Financial Assistance” (OFA) from a company engaged in the scrap metal business. The offer is neither to assist an existing distressed railroad nor to assist an impoverished railroad in resuming operation. Rather, the offer is to enable the offeror to obtain a valuable piece of land on the basis of a three-fold speculation that it can rehabilitate a dismantled railroad, that it has the ability to operate a railroad, and finally that it may have in the future customers or shippers who will use the railroad. The OFA is from a company without any experience in operating a railroad and is based solely on the vague and unsupported statement of Ronald G. Sahd (Ronald), its president. Without credible evidence to support its decision, the Board acted arbitrarily and capriciously. I, therefore, respectfully dissent.
I.
A brief statement of the pertinent facts preceding the OFA may be helpful in putting this dispute in perspective. The dead-end track on land (hereinafter “the corridor”) owned by the Middletown and Hum-melstown Railroad Co. (M&H) and the 1411 Corporation runs through the center of Columbia Borough and terminates in an open field in West Hempfield Township, Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. At one time, it formed part of a branch line acquired by Consolidated Rah Corporation (Conrail) in 1976 to serve one customer, ITT Grinnell, for its outbound shipments. ITT Grinnell subsequently acquired a small part of the line from Conrail (milepost 39.3 to milepost 37.2) in 1982. Grin-nell, having no interest in operating a railroad, transferred the line to a wholly owned subsidiary, 1411 Corporation. When Grinnell converted its coke-fired furnaces to electricity in 1986, rendering the line unnecessary, it sold 1411 to M&H. M&H Railroad purchased it in the expectation that it, too, would serve one customer, Colonial Metals. Colonial Metals, however, made only one outbound shipment in the year 1990. There has been no service since 1990 and what remains of the line is a 2.5 mile remnant that is the subject of this litigation. Since 1990, no shipper has utilized the line.
Frank Sahd Salvage Center (Sahd) on occasion had used the line to ship scrap metal. The President of the M&H Railroad and 1411 Corporation averred that Sahd’s last shipment of scrap was in February 1988 and it received two carloads of machinery in 1990. In November 1992, Sahd indicated some interest in purchasing the line. On August 5, 1993, Sahd’s attorney informed M&H that it was “no longer interested in acquiring 1411.” In the ensuing years, the remnant was dismantled without objection from anyone. Conrail removed the interchange switch, Columbia Borough removed the track from the in-town Fourth Street Crossing, and the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania paved over the Route 462 crossing.
Having no information of any shipping interest in the remaining trackage, 1411 Corp. and M&H entered into an option agreement to sell it and the adjoining land to Michael Stark, a local businessman. Stark planned to use the rail stub for railbanking and trail/greenway purposes. He paid $4872 for the option and assigned it in April 2001 to Shawnee Run Green-way, Inc. (Shawnee), a Pennsylvania nonprofit corporation. Shawnee made an additional $4872 payment toward the purchase price to keep the option open until M&H Railroad and 1411 Corporation obtained STB approval for the abandonment of the remnant line. Shawnee also spent $17,000 for boundary surveys and environmental analysis.
For several years prior to the option contract, important local, county, and *238State figures recognized the desirability of preserving the corridor for open space, conservation purposes, and as part of a countywide greenway system. Columbia Borough’s 1995 Comprehensive Plan recommended that the land be preserved as open space. Lancaster County’s 1992 Regional Open Space Plan, which included Columbia Borough, contemplated the potential conversion of the corridor to a trail as part of the countywide greenway system.
Likewise, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania envisioned the corridor as a component of the state’s greenway network. The County’s 2000 Bicycle & Pedestrian Plan also cited the corridor as a future component of a county bicycle trail system. Columbia Borough, West Hempfield Township, and the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and National Resources funded a comprehensive Master Plan completed in 2001 for the preservation of the corridor as a vehicle-free linear open space. The Plan included the corridor as public open space for walking, biking, and jogging, where “visitors of all ages and abilities will observe historic, cultural, and environmental elements traversing a diverse palette of landscapes.” The planning process provided for public input. No party, including Sahd, informed any of the planners of an interest in preserving the land for railway purposes.1
Shawnee ultimately converted its option into a contract to purchase the corridor for $125,000. 1411 and M&H filed public notices of exemption to abandon service on April 12, 2001, effective May 12, 2001. On July 11, 2001, Sahd filed its OFA which stayed the effective date of the exemption.
On April 8, 2002, Columbia Borough reaffirmed by Council Resolution the consistency of the trail and greenway use with local and regional land use plans. It also noted that “possible future rail needs can be amply served by preserving the inactive line intact pursuant to the federal interim trail use and railbanking statute [16 U.S.C. § 1247(d)].” The Resolution expressly supported the development of a greenway and trail line, consistent with local land use plans.
The STB ultimately rejected Shawnee’s challenge to Sahd’s offer and denied Shawnee’s alternative request to exempt the fine under 49 U.S.C. § 10502 from the forced sale provisions of 49 U.S.C. § 10904. STB based its approval of the OFA solely on Sahd’s “convincing explanation for its recent reliance on trucks and its desire to resume using rail service.” The STB emphasized that “Sahd has been located on the line for many years, and has made extensive use of it for transportation service in connection with its business.” Sahd last shipped over the line in 1988. In 1990, it received two carloads of machinery. Since then, the line has been dismantled and nothing remains of it except this 2.5 miles of track and the land on which it rests. Thus, Sahd has not used the line or any part of it for the past thirteen years. The STB noted that the value in this purchase was not the track, but in the fee simple title to the land.
II.
The burden of proof in this dispute is on the offeror, Sahd. Kulmer v. STB, 236 F.3d 1255, 1256 (10th Cir.2001). Sahd had to show by credible evidence that: (1) the OFA was for continued rail use; (2) the offeror’s projections of traffic were reasonable; and (3) the level of rail traffic pro*239jected would be sufficient to sustain rail service. Id.; Roaring Fork R.R. Holding Auth. — Abandonment Exemption —In Garfield, Eagle & Pitkin Counties, STB dkt No. AB 547X, 1999 STB LEXIS 299, at *8 (STB May 21,1999).
The Board acknowledged that this was the relevant standard, but departed from its own precedent in failing meaningfully to require Sahd to meet its burden of proof. The STB finding that the OFA was a bona fide effort to continue rail service was based only on bald, unsupported assertions. As to the second and third Roaring Fork requirements, the STB has no evidence whatsoever and M&H submitted a verified statement indicating that the hypothetical levels of use projected by Sahd would be insufficient to justify the restoration expenses.
In effect, the STB erroneously placed the burden on Shawnee and Columbia to prove that the OFA was not a bona fide effort to provide rail service. The STB required greater evidentiary support for Shawnee’s assertions than for Sahd’s. For example, Shawnee offered a list of costs to rehabilitate the line, including reconnecting the stub with the adjacent through track, reestablishing crossings at four streets, and reconditioning the line. Shawnee reasonably estimated these costs at $300,000. The STB rejected this estimate, stating that “Shawnee offers no support for its assertion that these costs will add up to $300,000.” The STB recognized that Shawnee cited the Columbia Green-way Master Plan as its authority for the proposition that restoring service would be economically and institutionally infeasible, but the STB rejected this projection as a conclusion unsupported by analysis. On the other hand, the STB blindly accepted Sahd’s less plausible calculations, although Sahd offered no underlying support other than his own self-serving statement.
Nor has Sahd furnished any convincing evidence that it has any use for rail service. It has not furnished any evidence whatsoever except for the self-serving statement of its president, Ronald G. Sahd. Ronald also states that rail service “will contribute to Sahd’s continued financial success by allowing Sahd Salvage to reach mills throughout the United States and to follow market demand for scrap metal.” This broad, wishful statement is not supported by a single affidavit or statement of any prospective customer.
In his unsupported statement, Ronald states that there are mills in the South, particularly in North Carolina and Virginia, that have “expressed an interest” in buying scrap metal from his company. Sahd names five mills, which he says are rail accessible, but in this hotly contested proceeding, he provides no supporting proof from any of them of an interest or intention to purchase Sahd’s scrap metal. Sahd has not produced a single letter of interest from them, or a letter of intent or a contract to support an interest in purchasing scrap metal from Sahd. Not one of them has been deposed, and Ronald’s statement has not been tested by cross-examination. At best, his statement is vague and highly speculative; at worst, it is fantasy. The Board has not a shred of information as to how much metal these mills would require on an annual basis, the foreseeable duration of their requirements from Sahd, and where and how they are obtaining scrap metal at the present time. Sahd has not even produced a supporting statement to show that they are rail accessible.
A close reading of Roaring Fork demonstrates that the STB was bound by its precedent to reject Sahd’s offer. In Roaring Fork, the STB criticized the offeror’s lack of tangible evidence that other providers were interested in using the line. The *240offeror identified five potential Southern shippers but the STB found that three were not in a position to use the line and the traffic projections for the remaining two were “too indefinite and insufficient to support continued rail service.” Likewise, in the instant case, we have no information whatsoever from any of the five potential shippers mentioned in passing by Sahd as to what use a rail line will have for any of them, or of what their traffic projections might be.
Sahd did submit two letters from Anvil International, Inc., which it refers to as a potential shipper. However, these letters have scant evidentiary value. The first letter consists merely of several vague sentences:
The utilization of rail as a delivery made for some type of raw material at several similar plants within our company, has demonstrated that it can be an effective method of transportation.
In the event that we determine that this would be a favorable freight alternative for our plant, I believe that we could utilize three to fifteen rail cars per week.
This letter is innocuous, non-committal, and has no evidentiary value of transportation need. That rail “can be an effective method of transportation” is an obvious generalization that has no significance. Nothing in this vague letter makes any commitment; it merely expresses a possibility at some undetermined future time.
Sahd submitted a follow-up letter from Anvil dated August 8, 2001. This letter is almost as vague and indefinite as its first letter. It states that Sahd recently acquired a new product line at its Columbia facility, without stating what it is. It also states that rail delivery “has become more viable” and it is currently investigating ways to reduce its freight and traveling costs. It is a perfunctory, feeble statement; it furnishes no information as to whether it has a railroad siding, whether it has used the line in the past, or what its traffic requirements may be. Again, Anvil makes not the slightest commitment to use the line.
The experienced president of a railroad that formerly operated this very line, Wendell J. Dillinger, stated in his sworn statement that neither Sahd nor Anvil had committed themselves to ship over his fine, and had “M&H Railroad/1411 felt there was serious interest in keeping the fine running, no abandonment authorization would have been requested.” Dillinger further stated that “Anvil has not contacted us since 1987.” Dillinger’s objectivity is beyond dispute. His company will receive the same amount of money whether the corridor is purchased by Sahd or Shawnee.
Likewise, Colonial Metals informed the STB by letter dated July 18, 2001, that it owns a twelve-acre site directly adjacent to the planned Shawnee Run Greenway. Colonial stated that “we see no realistic current rail need for the line.” It expressed the view at the same time that it did not “anticipate that railbanking the line is necessary to keep this line available for reasonable future needs.” Colonial, therefore, notified the Board that it had no objection to exempting this proceeding from further OFA procedures.
STB recognized that the failure of the line to carry any traffic in a decade “could support the argument that there is no call for continued rail service.” STB relied, however, on Sahd’s wishful statement that it desired to resume rail service, its previous attempts to buy the Line, and its unsupported potential for rail service. The Interstate Commerce Commission. STB’s predecessor, held that “[tjhose situations in which a purchaser of rail properties has no affirmative plans for continuation or resumption of service, but merely holds out the possibility of continuation or *241resumption of service at some unspecified future time, are not properly to be considered offers of financial assistance and do not fall within the scope of 49 U.S.C. 10905.” Abandonment of R.R. Lines & Discontinuance of Service, Ex Parte No. 274 (Sub-No. 6), 365 I.C.C. 249, 260 (I.C.C.1981).
Sahd may have used the line in the past, but not in the last thirteen years. Sahd may desire to resume using rail service but mere desire is not proof of feasibility, or a need for the service, or proof that there is sufficient traffic for a viable line, and that Sahd has the capability to operate a railroad. Sahd’s unsupported wish is a feeble basis on which to reject important and bona fide local, county, and state plans for trails and open space.
III.
The STB’s failure to follow Roaring Fork requires reversal in this case. It is arbitrary and capricious for an agency to depart from its own precedent without reasoned explanation. Donovan v. Adams Steel Erection, Inc., 766 F.2d 804, 807 (3d Cir.1985). The STB’s decision is entitled to a presumption of regularity but “that presumption is not to shield [its] action from a thorough, probing, in-depth review.” See Citizens to Preserve Overton Park v. Volpe, 401 U.S. 402, 415, 91 S.Ct. 814, 28 L.Ed.2d 136 (1971).2 Scrutiny of the facts does not end with the determination that the STB has acted within the scope of its statutory authority. Rather, the Administrative Procedure Act (A.P.A.) requires a finding that the actual choice made was not “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with law.” 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A).3
In making this finding, we consider whether the decision was based on “a consideration of the relevant factors” and “whether there has been a clear error of judgment.” Overton Park, 401 U.S. at 416, 91 S.Ct. 814. This Court’s inquiry into the facts should be “searching and careful.” Id. The majority acknowledges that the evidence supporting the STB decision is “manifestly[ ] modest.” Maj. op. at 233-234. The evidence is not only modest, but so paltry, wishful, and speculative that the acceptance of its OFA was arbitrary and capricious.
The scope of review under the arbitrary and capricious standard is narrow. Although a court is not to substitute its judgment for that of the agency, “[n]ever-theless, the agency must examine the relevant data and articulate a satisfactory explanation for its action including a ‘rational connection between the facts found and the choice made.’” Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Assoc. v. State Farm Mut. Auto. Ins. Co., 463 U.S. 29, 43, 103 S.Ct. 2856, 77 L.Ed.2d 443 (1983) (internal citation omitted). The STB here has failed to provide a satisfactory explanation for accepting Sahd’s OFA, particularly in light of the strong evidence to the contrary.
*242As the Supreme Court stated when it set aside an order of the Interstate Commerce Commission:
There are no findings and no analysis here to justify the choice made, no indication of the basis on which the Commission exercised its expert discretion. We are not prepared to and the Administrative Procedure Act will not permit us to accept such adjudicatory practice. Expert discretion is the lifeblood of the administrative process, but unless we make the requirements for administrative action strict and demanding, expertise, the strength of modern government, can become a monster which rules with no practical limits on its discretion.
Burlington Truck Lines, Inc. v. United States, 371 U.S. 156, 167, 83 S.Ct. 239, 9 L.Ed.2d 207 (1962) (note and citations omitted) (emphasis in original).
The STB’s judgment in this case has the effect of seriously obstructing the public interest. If the STB had followed its own precedent and required Sahd to prove all three of the Roaring Fork requirements, it would have been compelled to conclude that Sahd had not carried its burden. As it now stands, there is no evidence to suggest that the track will be used for the public benefit, either for environmental and recreational purposes or for continued rail service.
IV.
Accordingly, I would reverse the Board’s decision and grant the petition for review.
. Ronald Sahd stated that he approached Dillinger in the fall of 2000 and expressed a desire to purchase the corridor for rail use.
. Arbitrary and capricious review is not always as deferential as the majority suggests. For example, in Ethyl Corp. v. EPA, 541 F.2d 1 (D.C.Cir.), cert. denied, 426 U.S. 941, 96 S.Ct. 2663, 49 L.Ed.2d 394 (1976), the majority and dissenting opinions collectively devoted thirty-eight pages to a detailed analysis of factual studies relied upon by an administrative agency.
. Since the OFA statute makes no reference to a hearing on the record, this is an informal adjudication and no formal hearings are required. However, "in their application to the requirement of factual support the substantial evidence test and the arbitrary and capricious test are one and the same.” Ass’n of Data Processing v. Fed. Reserve, 745 F.2d 677, 683 (D.C.Cir.1984); accord Sevoian v. Ashcroft, 290 F.3d 166, 174 (3d Cir.2002).