Adams v. Watson, Etc.

                  UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
                      FOR THE FIRST CIRCUIT
                                           
No. 93-1068

                  KENNETH ADAMS, SETH BUNKER AND
                      RODNEY HUDSON, ET AL.,

                     Plaintiffs, Appellants,

                                v.

                 GREGORY WATSON AS COMMISSIONER,
               MASSACHUSETTS DEPARTMENT OF FOOD AND
                       AGRICULTURE, ET AL.,

                      Defendants, Appellees.

                                           

           APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT

                FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS

             [Hon. Rya W. Zobel, U.S. District Judge]
                                                    

                                           

                              Before

                       Selya, Circuit Judge,
                                           

                 Campbell, Senior Circuit Judge,
                                               

                     and Cyr, Circuit Judge.
                                           

                                           

     Michael L. Altman, with whom Margaret A. Robbins and Rubin &
                                                                 
Rudman were on brief for appellants.
      
     Eric A. Smith,  Assistant Attorney General, with  whom Scott
                                                                 
Harshbarger, Attorney General,  was on brief for  Commissioner of
           
the Massachusetts Department of Food and Agriculture.
     Robert J.  Sherer, with  whom Francis  A. DiLuna  and Roche,
                                                                 
Carens & DeGiacomo  were on brief  for Massachusetts Farm  Bureau
                  
Federation, Inc.
                                           
                         December 8, 1993
                                           

          CYR, Circuit  Judge.   Plaintiffs-appellants, New  York
          CYR, Circuit  Judge.
                             

and New  Hampshire dairy  farmers, instituted  the present  civil

rights  action  against  the  Commissioner of  the  Massachusetts

Department of Food and Agriculture (Commissioner) for declaratory

and injunctive  relief from an  alleged unconstitutional enforce-

ment of a  Massachusetts milk pricing order.   The district court

dismissed their complaint for lack of standing.  We now reverse.

                                I

                            BACKGROUND
                                      

          On January 28, 1992, the  Commissioner declared a state

of emergency in the Massachusetts dairy industry, see Mass.  Gen.
                                                     

L. ch. 94A,   12 (1992), based on findings that rising production

costs and flat dairy prices  were devastating the industry.1  The

Commissioner  determined that  a  price stabilization  system was

necessary.   The  pricing order  issued  by the  Commissioner  on

February 26, 1992, forms the focus of this appeal.

          The  pricing  order established  a  "Dairy Equalization

Fund"  (Fund), into which each licensed milk distributor (dealer)

in Massachusetts is required to pay monthly assessments ("differ-

ential assessments") equal  to one-third of  the amount by  which

the $15  price set  by the pricing  order exceeds  the applicable

                    

     1In 1991, for  example, the average milk price  paid Massac-
husetts dairy farmers was $12.64 per hundredweight (cwt), whereas
their average  production cost was  $15.50 per cwt     an average
loss of $2.86 per cwt.   The Commissioner specifically found that
the emergency  threatened Massachusetts' local  "supply of  fresh
milk."

federal minimum or  "blend" price per hundredweight  (cwt).2  The

differential  assessment   applies  to   all  milk   marketed  in

Massachusetts  by licensed  dealers, whether  produced in  Massa-

chusetts or  elsewhere.   Notwithstanding the  fact that  dealers

must  pay the differential  assessment calculated on  all out-of-

state  and in-state  produced  milk, out-of-state  producers, who

supply most of the milk  sold in Massachusetts,3 are not entitled

to disbursements  from  the Fund.   The  monies in  the Fund  are

distributed monthly  among Massachusetts milk producers  only, in

direct proportion  to their  respective percentage  of the  total

Massachusetts milk production,  subject to a monthly  payment cap

to  each Massachusetts producer equal to the differential assess-

ment on  2000 cwt.   Excess monies  in the  Fund are  remitted to

dealers in direct proportion to their payments into the Fund.

          Plaintiffs-appellants,  out-of-state  producers,   sell

their entire  milk  production to  West  Lynn Creamery,  Inc.,  a

                    

     2The  United States dairy  industry is subject  to extensive
price  regulation.  The  United States Department  of Agriculture
promulgates  federal  milk  marketing  orders,  pursuant  to  the
Agricultural Marketing Agreements Act of 1937, 7 U.S.C.   601, et
                                                                 
seq., which establish minimum  milk prices.  The  marketing order
    
in effect in Massachusetts is New England Federal  Milk Marketing
Order  No. 1 (Order  No. 1).   See 7  C.F.R.   1001 (1993).   The
                                  
minimum milk price ("blend price") is calculated monthly, using a
market-wide weighted average of the value of all milk sold during
the preceding month.  No state or dealer may permit regional milk
producers to  receive less than the per/cwt  figure prescribed in
Order No. 1.

     3Plaintiffs allege that Massachusetts is not a "producer" or
"export"  state (like,  for  example, Vermont  and Maine),  but a
highly vulnerable "consumer" or "import" state capable of produc-
ing only  10% of the milk sold in the  state.  As a rule, out-of-
state  milk commands  a high  premium in  "consumer" states  like
Massachusetts.

                                3

licensed  Massachusetts milk dealer.  Their original civil rights

complaint  demanded (i) a  declaratory judgment that  the pricing

order  violates  the Commerce  Clause,4  (ii) the  refund  of all

amounts  previously  disbursed  from  the Fund  to  Massachusetts

producers,  and (iii) injunctive  relief against further enforce-

ment of the pricing order.

          The first amended  complaint5 included allegations that

the  pricing  order  caused  appellants  competitive  injury  and

economic  harm.6   On  defendants'  motion,  the  district  court

dismissed  the  first  amended complaint  for  lack  of standing,

finding  its "general allegations  of economic harm  . . . unsup-

ported by any specific, factual allegations of injury."  Adams v.
                                                              

                    

     4Commerce Clause violations may be redressed under 42 U.S.C.
  1983.  See Dennis v. Higgins, 498 U.S. 439, 443-51 (1991).
                              

     5Two  nonproducer  plaintiffs (Massachusetts  milk  dealers)
                                                                
voluntarily dismissed their claims, following the  Commissioner's
motion  to dismiss their claims on Younger and Burford abstention
                                                      
grounds.   The remaining  plaintiffs, appellants here,  filed the
first amended complaint, which  dropped the dealer-plaintiffs and
withdrew  a claim  for damages.    West Lynn  Creamery, Inc.,  an
original plaintiff, brought  a separate state court  action chal-
lenging the pricing  order, under which the  Commissioner threat-
ened to  suspend its  license to sell  milk in  Massachusetts for
failure to pay its monthly differential  assessments to the Fund.
On April 15, 1993, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled
that the pricing  order did not violate the Commerce Clause.  See
                                                                 
West Lynn  Creamery, Inc.  v. Commissioner of  Dep't of  Food and
                                                                 
Agric., 415 Mass.  8, 611 N.E.2d 239, cert.  granted, 62 U.S.L.W.
                                                    
3244 (U.S. Oct. 4, 1993) (No. 93-141).

     6The first amended complaint merely alleged that the pricing
order "has  the same  effect as a  'customs duty'  or 'protective
tariff' on the  importation of  milk produced  in other  states,"
"subsidizes  Massachusetts farmers  which  causes the  disorderly
marketing  of  milk,"   causes  out-of-state  farmers,  including
plaintiffs, to  suffer economic harm and competitive disadvantage
because it subsidizes  Massachusetts farmers, and may  force out-
of-state farmers, including plaintiffs, out of business.

                                4

Watson, No.  92-11641-Z, 1992 U.S.  Dist. LEXIS 19306, at  *4 (D.
      

Mass. 1992).   The  district court noted  that the  first amended

complaint contained no  allegations that the plaintiffs  had sold

less  milk in Massachusetts  since February 26, 1992,  received a

lower price for their milk, or were otherwise frustrated in their

attempt to "undersell" Massachusetts producers.

          The  district court denied plaintiffs' motion to recast

their first  amended complaint by  adding two paragraphs  for the

stated purpose of  alleging "with greater specificity  'injury in

fact' to meet the requirement  of more 'specific, factual allega-

tions  of injury.'"    The district  court  summarily denied  the

ensuing motion for relief from judgment under Fed. R. Civ. P. 60.

                                II

                            DISCUSSION
                                      

A.   Applicable Law of Standing.
                               

          Article III  of the Constitution  limits federal "judi-

cial power" to the resolution of "cases" and "controversies," see
                                                                 

U.S. Const.  art. III; only  if it is  presented with a  "case or

controversy" may an  Article III court entertain an  action.  See
                                                                 

Warth v. Seldin, 422 U.S. 490,  498 (1975); United States v.  AVX
                                                                 

Corp., 962 F.2d 108, 113 (1st Cir.  1992).  In its constitutional
     

formulation, the  doctrine of standing is a  gatekeeper of justi-

ciability,  and  "serves  to identify  those  disputes  which are

appropriately resolved through  the judicial process."   Whitmore
                                                                 

v. Arkansas, 495 U.S. 149,  155 (1990).  The "irreducible consti-
           

tutional minimum of standing" entails three elements:

                                5

          First,  the plaintiff  must have  suffered an
          "injury  in fact"    an invasion of a legally
          protected interest which is (a) concrete  and
          particularized; and  (b) actual  or imminent,
          not  conjectural  or hypothetical.    Second,
          there must be a causal connection between the
          injury and the  conduct complained of     the
          injury  has  to  be fairly  traceable  to the
          challenged action  of the defendant,  and not
          the result of the  independent action of some
          third  party not before the court.  Third, it
          must be "likely" as opposed to merely "specu-
          lative," that the injury will be redressed by
          a favorable decision.

Lujan  v. Defenders  of Wildlife,  112 S.  Ct. 2130,  2136 (1992)
                                

(citations and some  internal quotation marks omitted);  see also
                                                                 

Northeastern Fla. Chapter  of Associated Gen. Contractors  of Am.
                                                                 

v. Jacksonville, 113 S.  Ct. 2297 (1993);  AVX, 962 F.2d at  113;
                                              

Munoz-Mendoza v. Pierce, 711 F.2d 421, 424 (1st Cir. 1983).7
                       

                    

     7Prudential limitations on the exercise of federal jurisdic-
tion      self-imposed rules  of  judicial  restraint     may  be
invoked even if  all constitutional essentials  are present.   As
the  Supreme Court has acknowledged, however,  "it has not always
been  clear in  the opinions  of  [the] Court  whether particular
features of the 'standing' requirement have been required by Art.
III ex proprio vigore, or  whether they are requirements that the
                     
Court  itself has  erected and  which were  not compelled  by the
language of the Constitution."  Valley Forge Christian College v.
                                                              
Americans United  for Separation of  Church and State,  Inc., 454
                                                            
U.S. 464,  471 (1982).   Nonetheless,  at least  three prudential
principles bear importantly  on "standing".  First,  the litigant
must  assert its  own legal  rights and  interests, not  those of
third parties.  Warth, 422 U.S.  at 499.  Second, claimants  with
                     
"generalized grievances" shared  by a large class of citizens and
raising "abstract questions of wide public significance" normally
will be denied standing, as such questions are more appropriately
addressed to the  representative branches of government.   Valley
                                                                 
Forge, 454 U.S. at 475.   Finally, the claim presented  must come
     
within "the zone of interests to be protected or regulated by the
statute or constitutional guarantee in question."  Association of
                                                                 
Data  Processing Serv.  Orgs., Inc.  v. Camp,  397 U.S.  150, 153
                                            
(1970).
     In  the instant case, appellees  have not suggested that the
appellant producers are asserting rights and interests other than
their  own; the complaint  does not allege  a "generalized griev-

                                6

          The  injury-in-fact inquiry  "serves  to distinguish  a

person with a direct stake in the outcome of a litigation    even
                                                                 

though small    from  a person with a mere interest  in the prob-
            

lem."   United States  v. Students Challenging  Regulatory Agency
                                                                 

Procedures  (SCRAP),  412  U.S. 669,  690  n.  14  (1973) (citing
                   

Kenneth C. Davis,  Standing: Taxpayers and Others, 35  U. Chi. L.
                                                 

Rev. 601,  613  (1968) ("an  identifiable  trifle is  enough  for

standing  to fight  out  a  question  of  principle"))  (emphasis

added);  see Bowman v. Wilson, 672 F.2d 1145, 1151 (3d Cir. 1982)
                             

("The  contours  of  the injury-in-fact  requirement,  while  not

precisely  defined,  are  very  generous,"  requiring  only  that

claimant "allege[] some specific, 'identifiable trifle' of injury

. . . ."); Tax Analysts & Advocates v. Blumenthal,  566 F.2d 130,
                                                 

138 (D.C. Cir. 1977) (distinct and palpable competitive injury is

injury-in-fact for standing  purposes even if economic  injury is

slight in magnitude), cert. denied, 434 U.S. 1086 (1978).  Courts
                                  

"may reasonably expect  that a person so harmed  will, as best he

can, frame the  relevant questions with specificity,  contest the

issues  with the necessary adverseness, and pursue the litigation

vigorously."  Barlow v. Collins, 397 U.S. 159, 172 (1970).
                               

                    

ance" more appropriately  addressed to another branch  of govern-
ment; and  appellants, as milk  producers who ship  in interstate
commerce,  would appear  to  be within  the  "zone of  interests"
protected by  the Commerce  Clause, see Dennis,  498 U.S.  at 449
                                              
(Commerce  Clause was  intended  to  benefit  those  involved  in
interstate commerce and is the source of a right of action on the
part of those  injured by state  regulation of commerce)  (citing
Boston Stock  Exch. v.  State Tax Comm'n,  429 U.S. 318,  320 n.3
                                        
(1976)).

                                7

          The  responsibility   for  "clearly   and  specifically

set[ting]  forth  facts  sufficient to  satisfy  the  Article III

standing  requirements" rests with  the claimant.   Whitmore, 495
                                                            

U.S. at 155-56; see also Lujan, 112 S. Ct. at 2136;  FW/PBS, Inc.
                                                                 

v. Dallas, 493 U.S. 215, 231 (1990); Warth, 422 U.S. at 518; AVX,
                                                                

962 F.2d  at 114.  Like  the trial court, we "accept  as true all

material  allegations of  the complaint,  and  must construe  the

complaint in favor of the complaining party."  Warth, 422 U.S. at
                                                    

501; see AVX,  962 F.2d at  114.8  "'[E]mpirically  unverifiable'
            

conclusions,  not 'logically compelled, or at least supported, by

the stated facts,' deserve no deference."  Id. (quoting Dartmouth
                                                                 

Review v.  Dartmouth College, 889  F.2d 13, 16 (1st  Cir. 1989)).
                            

Within this analytic framework, we examine appellants' claims.

B.   The District Court Decision.
                                

          The  district court found  that the first  amended com-

plaint raised general allegations of "economic harm" or "competi-
                     

tive  disadvantage" but alleged  no "specific" facts  which would

substantiate  actual injury,  such as  reduced  out-of-state milk

sales to Massachusetts dealers,  or lower milk prices  to out-of-

state producers.  The court noted:

                    

     8Although the Commissioner contends  that the district court
correctly  applied AVX's  "heightened" requirements  for pleading
                      
"standing," AVX, 962  F.2d at 113, we note no  citation or refer-
               
ence  to AVX in  the district court  opinion.   Since we conclude
            
that the proposed second amended complaint meets either standard,
however,  we need not revisit AVX in light of the Supreme Court's
                                 
recent  decision in Leatherman v. Tarrant County Narcotics Intel-
                                                                 
ligence & Coordination Unit, 113 S. Ct. 1160 (1993).
                           

                                8

          In  complaining that  the  subsidy in  itself
          injures   out-of-state   farmers,  plaintiffs
          assume  a  perfectly  competitive  market  in
          which a  direct subsidy to  local farmers re-
          sults  in their  capture of  a larger  market
          share  because they can offer their milk at a
          lower price.  Such analysis  ignores the fact
          that there  is [a]  federal price support  in
          effect.   Because the  milk dealers  must pay
          the federal minimum price  to any dairy farm-
                                           
          er, there  is no incentive  to purchase local
          rather than out-of-state milk.

Adams, No. 92-11641-Z, 1992 U.S. Dist. LEXIS 19306, at *4 n.4. 
     

C.   Allegations of "Competitive Injury."
                                       

          Since  the proposed  second amended  complaint did  not

address  the perceived  deficiencies in  the  first amended  com-

plaint, and the  district court did not elaborate  on its reasons

for denying the motion to amend, we assume that the court consid-

ered  the  proposed  amendment futile.    See  Correa-Martinez v.
                                                              

Arrillaga-Belendez, 903 F.2d 49, 59 (1st  Cir. 1990).  According-
                  

ly, setting to  one side the first amended  complaint, we inquire

whether the second  amended complaint alleged an  actual or immi-

nent  "injury-in-fact"  proximately  caused   by  the  challenged

pricing order.   Id. (suggesting  that denial of motion  to amend
                    

constitutes abuse of discretion "if no justification appears").

          The second amended complaint, paraphrased, alleges that

the following chain of economic events will result in appellants'

loss of future income, profits, and business opportunities: 

          All milk currently produced  by appellants is
          sold in  the  Massachusetts  milk  market  in
          direct  competition  with  Massachusetts milk
          producers.   As a  direct consequence of  the
          differential  assessments Massachusetts  milk
          dealers must pay  into the Fund for  each cwt

                                9

          purchased  from  producers,9   consumer  milk
          prices  in  Massachusetts   will  rise  since
          dealers, in  all likelihood, will  pass along
          at  least  some  portion of  their  increased
          costs to Massachusetts consumers.10

          Consumer  demand  will   decrease  as  prices
          increase.  In  this shrinking market,  Massa-
          chusetts  dealers will  continue  to buy  all
          available  milk  produced  in  Massachusetts,
          because of their "preference"  for local sup-
                                                       
          plies, due to the lower transportation  costs
               
          and lesser producer-to-consumer delivery time
          (perishability  being a  major industry  con-
          cern).  Higher milk prices and increased dis-
          bursements from the  Fund will induce greater
          milk production  by Massachusetts  producers,
          thereby  lowering the  current 90%  Massachu-
          setts  market share  enjoyed by  out-of-state
          producers.   Moreover, even  if Massachusetts
          milk prices were to remain relatively stable,
          individual Massachusetts producers would have
          a  strong  incentive to  increase  production
          over their  fellow home state  dairy farmers,
          since  Fund disbursements  are based  on each
          producer's relative  share of  overall Massa-
                             
          chusetts milk production. 
                                  

          As  Massachusetts  producers  increase  their
          market share, out-of-state milk will be  dis-
          placed,   and   "overflow"   into  interstate
          commerce.   These  resulting surplus  "inter-
          state"  supplies  will  deflate  the  federal
          "blend" or minimum  price under Order  No. 1.
          Since appellants previously sold their entire
          milk  production  in Massachusetts,  some  of
          their out-of-state  milk will  be "displaced"
          by Massachusetts-produced milk.  As Massachu-
          setts consumer demand decreases, out-of-state
          producers will  no longer be able  to command

                    

     9Appellants concede that the Fund's collection mechanism, by
                                                   
itself, does  not injure them.  Since  Massachusetts dealers must
pay  an assessment  on  every  cwt  purchased,  whether  produced
locally or out-of-state,  dealers could not reduce  their assess-
ments to the Fund by avoiding out-of-state purchases.

     10By proscribing "unconscionable"  consumer price increases,
section VIII(b) of the pricing order merely places an outer limit
on the total amount of  differential assessment costs dealers may
pass along to consumers.  

                                10

          the  same premium  prices (in  excess  of the
          federal  "blend price")  received before  the
          challenged pricing order.   See supra note 3.
                                               
          Massachusetts  producers  will  be  insulated
          from any  federal blend-price  deflation, be-
          cause,  under the  Fund's collection  formula
          the  greater the gap between $15 and the fed-
                              
          eral blend price, the larger the differential
          assessments  Massachusetts  dealers  must pay
          into the Fund, and  therefore, the larger the
          Fund disbursements to Massachusetts producers
          (but not to out-of-state producers).   Unless
          remedied, the challenged pricing order event-
          ually would lead  to the failure and  closure
          of appellants' businesses.11

D.   "Imminence" and "Particularity" of Economic Injury.
                                                       

          The  district  court correctly  noted  that appellants'

current  income and profits do not substantiate their allegations

of economic  injury.  As  of the district court  dismissal order,

appellants continued to sell their entire milk production to West

Lynn Creamery,  and neither the  volume nor the price  had abated

since the pricing order went into effect.  For their part, appel-

lees  cite to  several cases  holding  that the  "injury-in-fact"

requirement is  satisfied at  the pleading  stage by  allegations

that  the plaintiffs  sustained  actual  financial  loss,  fairly

traceable  to the  challenged regulation,  between its  effective

date and the  filing of the complaint.  See, e.g., Minnesota Milk
                                                                 

Producers Ass'n v. Madigan, 956  F.2d 816, 818-19 (8th Cir. 1992)
                          

("The producers  have alleged  that  the provisions  of the  Sec-

                    

     11The  Commissioner characterizes  these  dire forecasts  as
speculative.  Nevertheless, the affidavit of West Lynn Creamery's
president attests that the dairy industry's economic woes are not
restricted to Massachusetts, and that out-of-state milk producers
likewise are in precarious financial straits.

                                11

retary's  orders directly  cause a  reduction in  the price  they

receive for their milk.").12

          Although at  the pleading  stage "injury-in-fact"  need

not entail currently realized economic loss, Article III standing
                             

in  the commercial  context must  be premised,  at a  minimum, on

particularized  future  economic  injury  which,  though  latent,

nonetheless qualifies  as "imminent."   See Lujan, 112 S.  Ct. at
                                                 

2136.  Our review of  the pertinent authorities satisfies us that

the  proposed  second  amended  complaint alleges  particularized

future economic injury  sufficient to support Article  III stand-
      

ing.

          In Rental  Hous. Ass'n  of Greater  Lynn v. Hills,  548
                                                           

F.2d 388  (1st Cir.  1977), the Department  of Housing  and Urban

Development  (HUD)  approved funding  to  convert factories  into

housing for the elderly.  While the project was still in process,

an  association of local  landlords brought suit  in federal dis-

trict court, complaining that the  grant contravened Section 8 of

the Housing and Community Development Act of 1974, and threatened

"competitive injury" to the plaintiff association's  members, who

"will lose tenants to the new project."  Id. at 389.  Finding the
                                            

                    

     12The parties  to the  present appeal  debate whether  cases
like AVX, dealing with "associational standing," have any bearing
        
on the  question of the individual  appellants' "injury-in-fact."
                                  
An  essential element  of "associational standing"  is injury-in-
fact  to some member  of the association.   See AVX,  962 F.2d at
                                                   
116.  Thus,  insofar as these  associational standing cases  deal
with  the requirements of "injury-in-fact," we cite them through-
out this opinion, as appropriate.

                                12

"competitive injury" allegations sufficient  to survive a  motion

to dismiss, we stated:  

          While the  [] project  is not  yet completed,
          and hence specific proof of competitive inju-
                                  
          ry  is  not  possible,  it  could  hardly  be
          thought that administrative  action likely to
          cause  harm cannot be  challenged until it is
          too late.  We see no insurmountable obstacles
                                                       
          to proof of the likelihood that [plaintiff's]
                  
          members will  lose tenants to the [] project.

Id.  (citation omitted)  (emphasis added).   We  noted  that many
   

cases  uphold "competitor standing"  based on  "unadorned allega-

tions" of latent economic injury.  Id. at 390; see, e.g., Associ-
                                                                 

ation of Data Processing Serv. Orgs. v.  Camp, 397 U.S. 150, 152,
                                             

154  (1970) (sellers of  data processing services  "no doubt" had

standing  to test  ruling allowing  national banks  to sell  data

processing services;  injury-in-fact element  met by  allegations

that  competition from national  banks "might entail  some future

loss of  profits"  and  that  respondent bank  was  preparing  to

perform data processing  services for two of  plaintiffs' custom-

ers);  Arnold Tours,  Inc. v.  Camp,  400 U.S.  45, 45-46  (1970)
                                   

(holding that  travel agents  had "competitor  standing" to  test

ruling  allowing  national  banks to  provide  travel  services);

Investment Co. Inst. v. Camp,  401 U.S. 617, 620-21 (1971) (find-
                            

ing "competitor standing,"  on the part of  investment companies,

to test a regulatory ruling authorizing national banks to operate

collective investment funds).13

                    

     13See also, e.g., Associated Gas Distribs. v. Federal Energy
                                                                 
Regulatory Comm'n, 899  F.2d 1250, 1258 (D.C. Cir. 1990) (holding
                 
that, even if no "specific instances of existing competition" had
been asserted, FERC's decision authorizes transportation and sale

                                13

          The proposed  second amended complaint meets the bench-

mark for "competitor standing"  established by these authorities.

                    

of gas which "threaten AGD's members competitively, because AGD's
members include local  distribution companies who may  lose busi-
                                                           
ness  to  allegedly  illegal   transactions")  (emphasis  added);
Securities Indus. Ass'n  v. Clarke, 885 F.2d 1034,  1038 (2d Cir.
                                  
1989)  (securities   dealers  sufficiently   alleged  competitive
injury-in-fact for "standing" to test regulatory ruling  allowing
banks to  sell mortgage pass-through certificates),  cert denied,
                                                                
493 U.S. 1070 (1990); Bullfrog Films, Inc. v. Wick, 847 F.2d 502,
                                                  
506  (9th Cir.  1988) (film  distributors  and exporters  alleged
sufficient injury-in-fact to test custom duties that "put[] their
films  at a competitive disadvantage in the international market-
place  . . . ., [a]lthough  plaintiffs did  not produce  evidence
that the payment of custom duties . . . caused decreased sales or
profits"); National Coal Ass'n v.  Hodel, 825 F.2d 523, 526 (D.C.
                                        
Cir.  1987) (holding  that Secretary  of  Interior's decision  to
allow land exchange so that plaintiff's competitor could  mine "a
large  tract of  previously  unmineable  land  . . .  undoubtedly
                                                                 
satisf[ies]  constitutional  standing   requirements")  (emphasis
added);  Investment  Co.  Inst. and  Securities  Indus.  Ass'n v.
                                                              
Federal Deposit  Ins.  Corp., 815  F.2d  1540, 1543  (D.C.  Cir.)
                            
(holding that  FDIC ruling  allowing insured  nonmember banks  to
enter securities  field  will  deal  petitioners,  who  represent
mutual  fund  companies and  investment  bankers,  a "competitive
injury"), cert denied, 484 U.S. 847  (1987); Sea-Land Serv., Inc.
                                                                 
v.  Dole, 723  F.2d 975,  977 (D.C.  Cir. 1983)  (concluding that
        
plaintiff, which operated vessels  on nonsubsidized trade routes,
had  alleged sufficient "competitive harm"  to test a decision by
Department of Transportation allowing  subsidized carrier to call
on ports  off its subsidized  route), cert. denied, 469  U.S. 824
                                                  
(1984);  Peoples Gas, Light & Coke Co.  v. U.S. Postal Serv., 658
                                                            
F.2d 1182, 1194 & n.9 (7th  Cir. 1981) (finding that plaintiff, a
gas company, which alleged "a loss of future revenue" from postal
service's plan to  install electric  instead of  gas system,  had
suffered a non-"speculative" competitive injury; judicial invali-
dation  of first bidding  procedure "offer[s] at  least a likeli-
hood" that  plaintiff, a  potential bidder,  would ultimately  be
awarded  the government contract);  P.A.M. News Corp.  v. Hardin,
                                                                
440  F.2d 255, 257  (D.C. Cir.  1971) (concluding  that plaintiff
alleged  competitive  injury  from  Department  of  Agriculture's
decision to  allow free access to agricultural data, since plain-
tiffs previously compiled  and sold information to  public);  cf.
                                                                 
Simmons v. Interstate Commerce  Comm'n, 900 F.2d 1023,  1026 (7th
                                      
Cir.  1990)  (holding  that  rival  shippers  alleged  sufficient
injury-in-fact to contest  ICC decision to permit  abandonment of
rail  line,  where  plaintiffs' competitor's  line  remains open,
although  injury  was  not  ultimately  redressable  by  judicial
action), cert. denied, 499 U.S. 919 (1991).
                     

                                14

The  Camp triad  and Rental Housing  cases are all  premised on a
                                   

plaintiff's  status as a direct competitor  whose position in the
                                          

relevant marketplace  would be  affected adversely  by the  chal-

lenged  governmental action.   Cf. Energy Transp.  Group, Inc. v.
                                                              

Maritime Admin.,  956 F.2d 1206,  1215 (D.C. Cir.  1992) (finding
               

that a disgruntled contract bidder, although generally engaged in
                                                      

the fuel  transportation business,  failed  to allege  sufficient

"competitive  injury" where  it could  not  presently, or  within

prescribed future period, perform the particular types of servic-

es required by  the contract at issue).  The  Supreme Court found

"competitor  standing" in  the  Camp cases  based  on an  alleged
                                    

potential  for heightened competition  in a national marketplace.
                                                    

Thus, arguably at  least, the narrower the  relevant marketplace,
                                      

as in Rental Housing (municipality) and here (state), the greater
                    

the likelihood that  a plaintiff will experience  future economic

loss  as a consequence  of the competitive  advantage bestowed on

its direct competitor.             In  some  "direct  competitor"

cases, future injury-in-fact is viewed as "obvious" since govern-

ment action that removes or eases only the competitive burdens on

the plaintiff's  rivals  plainly  disadvantages  the  plaintiff's
                       

competitive position  in  the  relevant  marketplace.    However,

"[w]here 'injury' and 'cause' are not obvious, the plaintiff must
                                             

plead  their existence  in his  complaint with  a fair  degree of

specificity."  Munoz-Mendoza, 711 F.2d at 425 (emphasis added).
                            

          There can  be no  question but  that out-of-state  milk

producers  are  in  direct  competition  with Massachusetts  milk

                                15

producers.   At the  very least,  out-of-state producers  have to

defend  their current 90% share of  the Massachusetts milk market

and may even  elect to compete  with Massachusetts producers  for

the  remaining 10%  market share.14   If,  as alleged,  see supra
                                                                 

pp. 9-11,  Massachusetts  producers were  to  realize  sufficient

infusions of capital to increase their  milk production and their

Massachusetts market share, it is "obvious" that appellants would

sustain  direct economic harm commensurate with the diminution of

their current market share.

          Even assuming,  however, for discussion  purposes, that

the causal nexus between the challenged pricing order  and appel-

lants' alleged competitive injury is not  sufficiently "obvious,"

we  are not persuaded  by the Commissioner's  contention that the

sequence  of  economic  events projected  in  the  second amended

complaint is  too conclusory,  speculative or  attenuated.   See,
                                                                

e.g., United  Transp. Union  v. Interstate  Commerce Comm'n,  891
                                                           

F.2d 908,  912 (D.C. Cir.  1989) ("When considering any  chain of

allegations  for standing  purposes,  we  may  reject  as  overly

speculative . . . predictions of future events (especially future
                                                                 

actions  by  third  parties)  . . . .")  (emphasis  added), cert.
                                                                 

denied, 497  U.S. 1024 (1990).   In order to  demonstrate "stand-
      

ing," "pleadings must be something more than an ingenious academ-

                    

     14The  Commissioner points out that appellants do not allege
that  they can  increase their  future milk  production so  as to
displace the  Massachusetts  producers  from  their  current  10%
market  share.  Even assuming that this omission undermines their
claimed "injury-in-fact" with  respect to the 10% share, there is
no requirement  that a plaintiff  plead multiple forms  of future
                                                
injury-in-fact.

                                16

ic  exercise in  the  conceivable"; a  plaintiff  may not  simply

assert "that  he can imagine  circumstances in which he  could be

affected by the agency's  action."  SCRAP, 412 U.S. at  689.  The
                                         

more remote in time the alleged injury-in-fact,  the less obvious

the "concreteness of the controversy."  Thus, where the complaint

relies only on prospective harm, it  "'must demonstrate a realis-

tic danger  of  sustaining a  direct  injury.'"   United  Transp.
                                                                 

Union, 891 F.2d at 913.  On the other hand, "competitor standing"
     

cases  necessarily  turn  on degrees  of  probability,  see Mount
                                                                 

Wilson FM  Broadcasters, Inc.  v. Federal  Communications Comm'n,
                                                                

884  F.2d 1462,  1465 (D.C.  Cir.  1989) ("If  an[] agency's  act

creates  'a substantial probability' of  an 'injury in fact,' the

causation  requirement of  Article  III is  satisfied.") (quoting

Warth, 422 U.S. at 504), a measurement "not easily susceptible to
     

concrete definitions or mechanical application," AVX, 962 F.2d at
                                                    

113.

          All predictions are conjectural to a degree.  Somewhere

along the spectrum of probability, between tomorrow's sunrise and

"unadorned  speculation," see, e.g., Diamond v. Charles, 476 U.S.
                                                       

54, 66 (1986) (pediatrician's allegations of injury-in-fact based

on assertion  that aborted  fetuses might  otherwise have  become

fee-paying patients),  lie appellants' allegations  of "imminent"

injury-in-fact based  on the laws  of economics.  Economics  is a

cross between an  art and  a science,  which is to  say, both  an

imperfect art and an imperfect science.  While the law  of supply

and  demand may sometimes  be suspended by  unpredictable market-

                                17

place  decisions, and even lesser fortuities like bovine obstina-

cy,  basic economic  theory quite  consistently transcends  utter

randomness by positing  elemental laws of cause and effect predi-

cated on actual  market experience and probable  market behavior.
                                               

Indeed,  most "competitor  standing" cases  depend  on such  core

economic postulates.   See United Transp. Union, 891  F.2d at 913
                                               

(noting that  in  "garden  variety  competitor  standing  cases,"

courts  routinely credit causal connections "firmly rooted in the

basic  laws of  economics" or "basic  economic logic");  see also
                                                                 

American Soc'y  of Travel  Agents, Inc.  v. Blumenthal,  566 F.2d
                                                      

145, 157  (D.C. Cir. 1977)  ("[A]ll claims of  competitive injury

are  to some extent speculative  [and] predicated on the indepen-

dent  decisions of  third  parties,  i.e.  customers.    However,

economics is the  science of predicting these  economic decisions

. . . .") (Bazelon, J.,  dissenting), cert. denied, 435  U.S. 947
                                                  

(1978).

          In Rental Housing, we credited at face value an allega-
                           

tion  that  the plaintiff  landlords, representing  slightly more

than one-third  of the  renters in  the relevant  housing market,

would "lose tenants"  to the HUD-subsidized project,  even though

their  economic prediction plainly  depended on the  decisions of

any number of independent parties    inter  alia, elderly tenants
                                                

seeking suitable housing, local zoning and planning boards, other

federal and state  agencies, and lending  institutions    not  to

mention less predictable  factors such as disasters,  e.g., fire.
                                                          

Two rational economic assumptions nonetheless combined to make it

                                18

sufficiently "probable"  that the  landlords would sustain  "con-

crete"  future  injury:  by increasing  the  volume  of available

housing in a defined market, both consumer demand and prices were

likely  to fall.   Similar economic principles  impelled the Camp
                                                                 

triad decisions  on "competitor standing."   See also  supra note
                                                            

13.

          The  second amended complaint, much like that in Rental
                                                                 

Housing, is based  on standard principles of  "supply and demand"
       

routinely  credited by  courts in  a variety  of contexts.   See,
                                                                

e.g.,  Minneapolis Star  &  Tribune Co.  v.  Minnesota Comm'r  of
                                                                 

Revenue, 460  U.S. 575, 590  (1983) (price or sales  tax increase
       

"presumably will cause a decrease in demand" for product) (citing

Paul A.  Samuelson, Economics  381-83, 389-90  (10th ed.  1976));

Competitive Enter.  Inst.  v.  National  Highway  Traffic  Safety
                                                                 

Admin., 901 F.2d 107, 125 (D.C. Cir. 1990) ("Since the demand for
      

a product is decreased as its price is increased . . . ."); Alcan
                                                                 

Sales, Div.  of Alcan Aluminum  Corp. v. United States,  693 F.2d
                                                      

1089, 1092 (Fed. Cir. 1982) (nonrefundable federal surcharges are

likely to  be more  effective in  decreasing demand  for imported

goods because importers  are more likely "to pass  along the cost

of the surcharge  through to consumers  . . . ."), cert.  denied,
                                                                

461 U.S.  943 (1983).   In the present  case, the  more industry-

specific allegations    such as Massachusetts dealers' preference

for indigenous milk supplies    are confirmed by the affidavit of

Dr. Ronald Knutson,  a national expert in dairy  industry econom-

ics, see  supra pp.  9-11.  We  conclude, therefore,  that rather
               

                                19

than  "empirically   unverifiable"  conclusions,   see  Dartmouth
                                                                 

Review,  889 F.2d  at 16,  the  economic "facts"  alleged in  the
      

proposed second amended  complaint set forth adequate  grounds to

demonstrate,  at the pleading stage, a sufficient likelihood that
                                   

the  challenged pricing order will result in reduced out-of-state

milk sales to Massachusetts dealers at lower prices.

          Even  assuming that out-of-state producers, as a class,
                                                                

might be  injured under  appellants' forecasts, the  Commissioner

contends that  these individual appellants failed  to demonstrate
                               

either injury-in-fact  or that West  Lynn Creamery will  buy less

than 100%  of their milk  production in  the event  Massachusetts

production is  increased in  the future.   Once again,  we cannot

agree.    Like  other  Massachusetts dealers  with  whom  it must

compete, West Lynn's self-interest (in lower transportation costs

and reduced perishability) will be served by purchasing milk from

nearby producers,  which at  least in many,  perhaps most,  cases

will be producers located in Massachusetts.  In that eventuality,

the out-of-state producers' current 97% share of West Lynn's milk

business would decline.   Nor is there anything  in the appellate

record to  suggest that  West Lynn has  a non-economic  motive to
                                                      

spare these individual appellants at the expense of other out-of-

state producers.  Furthermore, even if the  alleged reductions in

out-of-state  milk purchases were  minimal at the  outset, appel-

lants would no  longer be able to  command as high a  premium for
                                                             

their milk,  because they would  then have to compete  with other

out-of-state  producers  to  supply a  diminished  share  of West

                                20

Lynn's import needs.  Finally,  as out-of-state milk is displaced

in the Massachusetts marketplace  and "overflows" into interstate

commerce,  the federal  blend price  will  deflate, lowering  the

"safety  net" for all  milk producers including  appellants.  For

these  reasons, we  cannot  agree with  the  conclusion that  the

federal "blend"  price insulates appellants  from all  cognizable

injury-in-fact, see supra pp. 8-9, or renders inconsequential all
                         

other  alleged injury-in-fact (e.g., loss of premium paid out-of-
                                   

state producers prior to pricing order).  

          Similarly, the Commissioner cannot carry the day on the

claim  that appellants' injury-in-fact is shared  with so large a

class (all out-of-state producers selling to  Massachusetts deal-

ers) that their respective shares of the aggregate injury will be

minimal.  "To  deny standing to  persons who are in  fact injured

simply because many others are  also injured, would mean that the

most injurious and  widespread Government actions could  be ques-

tioned by  nobody."  SCRAP,  412 U.S. at  687; see also  AVX, 962
                                                            

F.2d  at 113 ("While the requisite injury  may be common to many,

it  may not be  shared by  all.") (citations  omitted).   Even if

appellants' market  "displacement" estimates  were grossly  exag-

gerated,  a relatively small economic  loss    even an "identifi-

able trifle"     is enough  to confer standing,  as it  affords a

constitutionally cognizable  stake  sufficient  to  ensure  their

vigorous prosecution of the litigation.   See Rental Hous. Ass'n,
                                                                

548 F.2d at  389 (although plaintiffs collectively owned  7000 of

18,000  rental units in  relevant marketplace, and HUD-subsidized

                                21

competitor would develop only 183 units, "the injury required for

standing need not be substantial, it need only  exist") (emphasis
                                                     

added).

          Nor can the  Commissioner sustain the dismissal  on the

ground  that significant increases  in Massachusetts milk produc-

tion may be slow to materialize.   The meaning of the term "immi-

nent"  depends on the particular circumstances, and in the highly

competitive  environment  of  the  dairy  industry,  governmental

actions often have intractable, long-term consequences.  Particu-

larly apt here is our earlier observation in Rental Housing:  "it
                                                           

could hardly be thought that  [State] action likely to cause harm

cannot be  challenged until it is too late."  Rental Hous. Ass'n,
                                                                

548 F.2d at 389.  Although the "emergency" pricing order protect-

ed Massachusetts milk  producers from immediate erosion  of their

remaining 10% share of  the Massachusetts milk market  by out-of-

state producers, an actual increase in Massachusetts milk produc-

tion may take months or even years to materialize since it  would

depend upon long-term capital investments in dairy herd and  farm

expansions  and  infrastructure  improvements.    Once  realized,

however, the  Massachusetts producers' newfound  competitive edge

would likely continue for an  extended period.  See, e.g., Sabine
                                                                 

River Auth. v. United States Dep't of Interior, 951 F.2d 669, 675
                                              

(5th Cir.) (plaintiff's challenge  to government's acquisition of

perpetual  easement  to  wetlands area  alleged  sufficient  non-

speculative injury by projecting water shortage "some forty years

in the future"), cert. denied, 113 S. Ct. 75 (1992).
                             

                                22

          We  in  no way  suggest,  of  course, that  the  second

amended  complaint's  portrayal  of milk  industry  economics  is

beyond refutation  either on summary  judgment or at trial.   See
                                                                 

SCRAP,  412 U.S. at  689 (where plaintiff  alleges a "perceptible
     

harm,"  the defendant  should move  "for summary judgment  on the
                                                         

standing issue and demonstrate[]  to the District Court  that the

allegations  were  sham  . . . .")  (emphasis  added);  see  also
                                                                 

Bullfrog Films, Inc. v. Wick,  847 F.2d 502, 506 (9th Cir.  1988)
                            

(holding  that  film   distributor-exporters  alleged  sufficient

injury-in-fact to challenge custom  duties which allegedly "put[]

their  films at a  competitive disadvantage in  the international

marketplace; "[a]lthough plaintiffs did not produce evidence that

the payment  of  custom duties  . . . caused  decreased sales  or

profits, at the summary judgment stage, a plaintiff's allegations

need not be  proven but  merely provable");  Citizens for  Envtl.
                                                                 

Quality v. United States,  731 F. Supp. 970, 973 (D.  Colo. 1989)
                        

(noting that opposing party could refute "general rule in econom-

ics [] that price decreases with increasing supply," by  explain-

ing "in highly  technical terms that local  timber markets depart

from  the general  economic rule  . . . .").15   As  we noted  in

                    

     15We  think appellants were entitled, at the pleading stage,
                                                                
to  presume that the milk industry  would be subject to the basic
economic laws at work in other competitive markets.  See supra p.
                                                              
9:  

     The Supreme Court [in Camp] did  not ... require plain-
                               
     tiffs  to allege in their complaint facts sufficient to
                                        
     refute every possible  anomaly of the marketplace  such
     as the  existence of  voluntary labor or  ideologically
     committed consumers.  The Court assumed the marketplace
     would function in a normal, predictable fashion, for to

                                23

Rental  Housing, at this  stage of appellants'  litigation, "[w]e
               

see

no insurmountable obstacles  to proof."  Rental  Hous. Ass'n, 548
                                                            

F.2d at 389 (emphasis added).16

                               III

                            CONCLUSION
                                      

          As the proposed second amended complaint was sufficient

to survive the motion to  dismiss based on lack of standing,  the

motion  to amend was not futile and the order granting the motion

to dismiss must be vacated. 

          The judgment is  vacated and the  case is remanded  for
                                                                 

                    

     assume  otherwise would be to foreclose the very possi-
     bility of  ever satisfactorily  alleging a  competitive
     injury.

American Soc'y, 566 F.2d at 158 (emphasis added).  We nonetheless
              
recognize, of  course, as did  the district court, that  the milk
industry is subject  to federal marketing orders.   Consequently,
where such economic anomalies are material, they may be tested at
summary judgment.  

     16We take  no position respecting the merits of the Commerce
Clause  challenge,  which   implicates  questions  of  interstate
commerce  "burdens"  analytically distinct  from  the "injury-in-
fact" determination that is central to standing.  As noted above,
the Supreme Court  has decided to review the  underlying Commerce
Clause claim.   See West  Lynn Creamery, Inc. v.  Commissioner of
                                                                 
Dep't  of Food  and Agric.,  415 Mass.  8, 611 N.E.2d  239, cert.
                                                                 
granted, 62 U.S.L.W. 3244 (U.S. Oct. 4, 1993) (No. 93-141).
       

                                24

further proceedings consistent with this opinion. 
further proceedings consistent with this opinion.
                                                

                                25