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Williston Basin Interstate Pipeline Co. v. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

Court: Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit
Date filed: 1999-01-22
Citations: 165 F.3d 54, 334 U.S. App. D.C. 109
Copy Citations
30 Citing Cases
Combined Opinion
                        United States Court of Appeals


                     FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT


             Argued November 19, 1998   Decided January 22, 1999 


                                 No. 97-1644


                Williston Basin Interstate Pipeline Company, 

                                  Petitioner


                                      v.


                    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 

                                  Respondent


                  Colorado Interstate Gas Company, et al., 

                                 Intervenors


On Petition for Review of Orders of the Federal 
Energy Regulatory Commission

     Robert T. Hall, III argued the cause for petitioner.  With 
him on the briefs were John R. Schaefgen, Jr., and Paul K. 
Sandness.

     Susan J. Court, Special Counsel, Federal Energy Regula-
tory Commission, argued the cause for respondent.  With her 



on the brief was Jay L. Witkin, Solicitor.  John H. Conway, 
Deputy Solicitor, Larry D. Gasteiger and Patricia L. Weiss, 
Attorneys, entered appearances.

     Alan J. Roth was on the brief for intervenors Public 
Utilities Commission of South Dakota, et al.

     Before:  Edwards, Chief Judge, Williams and Randolph, 
Circuit Judges.

     Opinion for the Court filed by Chief Judge Edwards.

     Edwards, Chief Judge:  Petitioner Williston Basin Inter-
state Pipeline Company ("Williston Basin") seeks review of 
multiple orders of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commis-
sion ("FERC" or "Commission") in connection with a general 
rate increase filed by Williston Basin under s 4 of the Natu-
ral Gas Act ("NGA" or "Act"), 15 U.S.C. s 717c.  The Com-
mission found that Williston Basin had not satisfied its bur-
den of demonstrating that various components of its proposed 
rate increase were lawful, and it therefore ordered certain 
adjustments to Williston Basin's filing.  In this petition for 
review, Williston Basin takes issue with the Commission's 
findings insofar as they concern the rate of return on common 
equity, ad valorem tax expense, throughput projection, depre-
ciation allowance, and cost of long-term debt.  The Public 
Utilities Commission of South Dakota, Montana Consumer 
Counsel, and Montana Public Service Commission ("State 
Agencies") have intervened in support of the Commission's 
position.

     We find that Williston Basin's challenges to the Commis-
sion's depreciation and cost of long-term debt determinations 
are plainly without merit, and, therefore, warrant no discus-
sion.  The Commission's decisions require no amplification on 
these two issues.  However, for the reasons provided below, 
we grant Williston Basin's petition for review and remand to 
the Commission for further proceedings on the issues related 
to the rate of return on common equity, ad valorem tax, and 
throughput.



                                I. Background


     A.Regulatory Framework

     This case involves the Commission's authority, pursuant to 
the NGA, to regulate "the transportation of natural gas in 
interstate commerce."  15 U.S.C. s 717(b) (1994).  Section 
4(a) of the Act requires that rates charged by natural gas 
pipelines within the Commission's jurisdiction be just and 
reasonable.  See id. s 717c(a).  Consistent with this mandate, 
pipelines must file all proposed rates with the Commission for 
a determination as to their reasonableness.  See id. s 717c(c).  
The pipeline bears the burden of demonstrating that a pro-
posed rate change is reasonable.  See id. s 717c(e).  The 
Commission may suspend the operation of a proposed new 
rate for up to five months pending a reasonableness determi-
nation.  See id.  If the Commission fails to reach a determi-
nation before the end of the suspension period, it must allow 
the filed rate to go into effect subject to an ultimate decision, 
which may be made retroactive.  See id.

     B.Commission Rate-Setting Practices

     The Commission sets pipeline rates by dividing revenue 
requirements by projected demand to attain a dollar-per-unit-
of-service figure.  To begin, the Commission sets a pipeline's 
basic costs by totaling operation and maintenance expenses, 
depreciation, and taxes, including ad valorem taxes.  As it is 
ordinarily impossible for a pipeline to know at the time of 
filing what its actual costs will be during the effective period 
of the filed rates, the Commission has adopted a "test period" 
approach for this stage of rate making.  Under this approach, 
a pipeline submits data in support of its rate proposal that 
reflects actual experience over the most recent twelve consec-
utive months (the "base period"), adjusted for changes that 
are known and measurable with reasonable accuracy at the 
time of filing, and that will become effective within nine 
months after the last month of actual experience (the "adjust-
ment period").  See 18 C.F.R. s 154.303(a)(4) (1998).  (Sepa-
rate test period regulations govern rate setting in the electric 
utility context.  See id. s 35.13.)  Under certain circum-



stances, the Commission has discretion to make adjustments 
in light of actual, post-test period data.  See Exxon Corp. v. 
FERC, 114 F.3d 1252, 1263 (D.C. Cir. 1997).  For the most 
part, however, the Commission develops rates using the 
representative cost data available at the time of filing.  The 
test period underlying the rates in this case consisted of a 
twelve-month base period ending January 31, 1992 and a 
nine-month adjustment period ending October 31, 1992.

     Next, the Commission adds to this basic cost of service 
figure a reasonable profit, computed by multiplying the rate 
base by the rate of return.  See Boston Edison Co. v. FERC, 
885 F.2d 962, 964 (1st Cir. 1989).  The rate base, which is not 
at issue in the present case, represents "total historical 
investment minus total prior depreciation."  Id. (internal 
quotation omitted).  The rate of return, which is very much at 
issue in the present case, represents a weighted average of 
the costs of the three elements comprising the pipeline's 
capital structure:  long-term debt, preferred stock, and com-
mon equity.  See North Carolina Utils., Comm'n v. FERC, 42 
F.3d 659, 661 (D.C. Cir. 1994).  The cost of common equity is 
frequently, as it is here, a point of contention in rate making.  
Nepco Mun. Rate Comm. v. FERC, 668 F.2d 1327, 1335 (D.C. 
Cir. 1981).

     To calculate a pipeline's rate of return on common equity, 
the Commission first develops a "zone of reasonableness," 
which gauges returns experienced in the industry, ordinarily 
by reference to a proxy group of publicly-traded companies 
for which market data is available.  North Carolina, 42 F.3d 
at 661-62.  To arrive at this zone of reasonableness, the 
Commission favors a discounted cash flow ("DCF") model, 
which projects investor growth expectations over the long 
term by adding average dividend yields to estimated constant 
growth in dividends over the indefinite future.  The premise 
of the DCF model is that the price of a stock is equal to the 
stream of expected dividends, discounted to their present 
value.  Once the Commission has defined a zone of reason-
ableness in this manner, it then assigns the pipeline a rate 
within that range to reflect specific investment risks associat-
ed with that pipeline as compared to the proxy group compa-



nies.  See id. at 661.  This figure, combined with the long-
term debt and preferred stock figures, represents the overall 
rate of return used to calculate the pipeline's profit allowance.

     In the final rate-making step, the Commission divides the 
total revenue requirement--cost of service plus reasonable 
profit--by the total demand.  Demand corresponds with 
throughput volume on the pipeline system, which, like cost of 
service, is computed by reference to a test period.  See 
Exxon Corp., 114 F.3d at 1263-64.  This calculation yields the 
per-unit price necessary to cover the pipeline's revenue re-
quirement, which, in turn, represents a reasonable price that 
the Commission will permit the pipeline to recover.  See 
Boston Edison, 885 F.2d at 964.

     C.Commission Proceedings

     The procedural history of this case, which spanned more 
than five years and spawned six Commission orders and two 
administrative law judge ("ALJ") decisions, does not bear 
exhaustive recitation here.  To put the relevant issues into 
context, we need only summarize the Commission's determi-
nations, as relevant to the rate of return on common equity, 
ad valorem tax, and throughput issues.

     Williston Basin is a natural gas company that operates a 
pipeline system within the states of Montana, North Dakota, 
South Dakota, and Wyoming.  On April 30, 1992, Williston 
Basin filed tariff sheets with the Commission in order to 
implement a proposed general rate increase under s 4 of the 
NGA, to be effective on June 1, 1992.  On May 29, 1992, the 
Commission accepted Williston Basin's filing, suspended the 
rates until November 1, 1992, and made the increase subject 
to refund, various conditions, and the outcome of a hearing on 
cost-of-service and throughput issues.  See Williston Basin 
Interstate Pipeline Co., 59 F.E.R.C. p 61,237 (1992).  Subse-
quently, on September 30, 1992, Williston Basin filed a su-
perceding rate increase to reflect firm service conversions, 
from sales to transportation, on its system.  Because this 
filing relied on the same cost of service and allocations as the 
earlier rate case, the two proposals raised several identical 
issues.  The Commission accepted the revised rates, suspend-



ed them until November 1, 1992, and consolidated the new 
filing with the pending proceeding.  See Williston Basin 
Interstate Pipeline Co., 61 F.E.R.C. p 61,129 (1992).  In the 
meantime, Williston Basin filed revised tariff sheets in con-
nection with its restructuring pursuant to FERC Order No. 
636.  By order dated February 12, 1993, the Commission set 
various issues in the restructuring proceeding for hearing, to 
be addressed in the ongoing proceedings in the 1992 dockets.  
See Williston Basin Interstate Pipeline Co., 62 F.E.R.C. 
p 61,144 (1993).  The Commission thereafter permitted Willi-
ston Basin to implement its restructuring as of November 1, 
1993, subject to certain conditions.  Consequently, the orders 
under review affect Williston Basin's rates from June 1, 1992 
through December 31, 1995, the effective date of its next rate 
case.

     On July 19, 1994, following an evidentiary hearing on the 
matters raised by the Commission, the presiding ALJ issued 
an initial decision in these proceedings, finding, with respect 
to the issues relevant here, that Williston Basin had ade-
quately supported the ad valorem tax and throughput compo-
nents of its rate proposal, but had failed to justify the return 
on common equity element.  See Williston Basin Interstate 
Pipeline Co., 68 F.E.R.C. p 63,007 (1994).  On July 25, 1995, 
the Commission issued an order affirming in part and revers-
ing in part the ALJ's decision.  The Commission concluded 
that Williston Basin had not met its burden as to any of these 
issues.  See Williston Basin Interstate Pipeline Co., 72 
F.E.R.C. p 61,074 (1995) ("July 1995 Order").

     With respect to the rate of return on common equity, the 
Commission focused on the appropriate data to be used for 
the dividend growth rate in the DCF model.  In its filing, 
Williston Basin had proposed a return on equity of 15 per-
cent, based on five-year earnings forecasts published by the 
Institutional Brokers Estimate System ("IBES") for the rele-
vant proxy group companies.  Rejecting this single-stage 
approach to the dividend growth estimate, the Commission 
relied instead on the two-stage approach articulated in sever-
al recent rate cases.  See Williston Basin, 72 F.E.R.C. at 
61,376.  The Commission looked in particular to Ozark Gas 



Transmission System, 68 F.E.R.C. p 61,032 (1994), where it 
had recognized that exclusive reliance on short-term growth 
projections is inconsistent with the DCF model, which as-
sumes dividend growth for an indefinite period of time.  The 
Commission concluded, therefore, that Williston Basin's divi-
dend growth projection must reflect estimates of both long- 
and short-term growth.  See Williston Basin, 72 F.E.R.C. at 
61,376.  Because the Commission found that the proposals 
before it lacked sufficient evidence of long-term growth rates, 
it took official notice of Data Resources, Inc./McGraw Hill 
("DRI") projections for retail gas consumption and prices, 
which had been used to represent long-term growth in Ozark, 
and averaged those data with the IBES five-year projections.  
See id. When added to the average dividend yields for the 
proxy companies, these data produced a zone of reasonable-
ness for the rate of return on common equity of 10.97 to 13.43 
percent, from which the Commission adopted the midpoint of 
12.20 percent for Williston Basin.  See id.

     With respect to the ad valorem tax expense, the Commis-
sion found that test period principles precluded Williston 
Basin's proposal to include in its cost estimate increased 
amounts that it anticipated owing to Montana and South 
Dakota in connection with various plant additions.  See id. at 
61,363.  The Commission found that, although the plant addi-
tions occurred during the test period, the effect of these 
additions "is not known and could not be measured with 
reasonable accuracy during the test period."  Id.  The Com-
mission reasoned that, because "[t]he determination of the 
exact ad valorem tax effect is a local matter involving local 
valuation and tax assessment procedures," the projected ad-
justment to ad valorem tax liability was too speculative.  Id.  
The Commission also attempted to distinguish a previous 
Williston Basin rate proceeding, on the ground that the 
adjustment permitted there was not speculative.  See id.

     Finally, with respect to throughput, the Commission reject-
ed, also on test period principles, Williston Basin's proposal to 
reduce the projected volume to reflect two major bypasses to 
its pipeline system.  See id. at 61,382-83.  At the time of its 
filing, Williston Basin had expected these bypasses to occur 



during the nine month "adjustment" portion of the test 
period;  however, the bypasses in fact occurred during the 
four months following the close of the test period.  See id.  
Thus, although Williston Basin's estimates were reasonable 
when made, the Commission relied instead on the most 
updated actual data for the test period that was available 
before the rates took effect.  See id.  According to the 
Commission, where the bypasses were known not to have 
occurred during the test period, and where the actual time 
that they would occur could not have been known then, the 
fact that the bypasses did subsequently occur could not be 
considered.  See id.

     Williston Basin sought rehearing as to each of these issues.  
By order dated July 19, 1996, the Commission addressed 
further, but declined to rehear, the ad valorem tax and 
throughput issues.  See Williston Basin Interstate Pipeline 
Co., 76 F.E.R.C. p 61,066 (1996) ("July 1996 Order").  Howev-
er, the Commission granted rehearing on the issue of the 
long-term growth factor to be used in calculating the rate of 
return on common equity.  Commenting that the data of 
which it took official notice in the previous proceeding was not 
widely available, the Commission concluded that:

     [t]he parties need an opportunity to cross-examine the 
     proponents of using the DRI data, or any other long 
     term growth projection, to determine whether the projec-
     tions are properly used.  At an evidentiary hearing, 
     parties will have the opportunity both to present their 
     own testimony concerning the appropriate data to use in 
     projecting long term growth and to ascertain the basis of 
     any other party's reliance on the DRI or other data.

Williston Basin, 76 F.E.R.C. at 61,390 (footnote omitted).  
Accordingly, the Commission ordered a hearing for "the sole 
purpose of determining the appropriate long term growth 
rate to be applied" in the two-stage DCF analysis approved 
by the Commission in the July 1995 Order.  Id.  On October 
8, 1996, following a hearing in which all parties presented 
testimony on this issue, the ALJ rendered a decision, essen-
tially adopting the approach taken by the Commission in its 



previous order--i.e., use of DRI data for the retail gas 
commodity.  See Williston Basin Interstate Pipeline Co., 77 
F.E.R.C. p 63,001, at 65,006 (1996).

     By order dated June 11, 1997, the Commission reversed the 
ALJ, concluding "that a projection of long-term growth for 
the specific pipeline companies in the proxy group or for the 
pipeline industry as a whole cannot reasonably be developed 
based on available data sources."  Williston Basin Interstate 
Pipeline Co., 79 F.E.R.C. p 61,311, at 62,388 (1997) ("June 
1997 Order").  The Commission found that Williston Basin's 
proposal, which advocated the sole use of IBES five-year 
earnings forecasts in the DCF model, was at odds with the 
two-stage DCF approach announced in Ozark, as well as the 
approach to long-term growth used by large investment 
brokerage houses.  See id. at 62,388.  Furthermore, it deter-
mined that the FERC staff's approach, which used DRI 
projections of growth in retail gas consumption as its basis 
for determining long-term growth in pipeline earnings, was 
also deficient, for there was no reason to assume the neces-
sary correlation between gas commodity and gas transmission 
revenues.  See id.

     Based on the evidence presented at the hearing, the Com-
mission abandoned the industry-specific approach to long-
term growth estimates and adopted, as an alternative, "the 
long-term growth rate of the economy as a whole, as mea-
sured by the gross domestic product."  Williston Basin, 79 
F.E.R.C. at 62,387.  The Commission provided four reasons 
for its decision to use economy-wide growth estimates:  first, 
the record showed that, as companies reach maturity, their 
growth rates approach that of the economy as a whole;  
second, it is reasonable to predict that, in the long run, a 
regulated firm will grow at the rate of an average firm in the 
economy, because regulation will moderate profitability in 
good and bad economic periods;  third, whereas the record 
did not show that investors rely on the approaches suggested 
by the parties in determining long-term growth, there was 
evidence that two large brokerage firms, Merrill Lynch and 
Prudential-Bache, use the long-term growth of the economy 
in conducting DCF analyses for investment purposes;  and 



fourth, the FERC staff witness in this case, and witnesses in 
other cases, have used the long-term growth of the economy 
to confirm the results of their analyses conducted using 
industry- or firm-specific estimates of growth.  See id. at 
62,389-90.

     After relying on investment houses to support its shift to 
an economy-wide approach to long-term growth, the Commis-
sion declined to adopt the particular long-term growth models 
used by Merrill Lynch or Prudential-Bache.  The Commis-
sion acknowledged that the use of gross domestic product 
("GDP") differed from the methodologies of the investment 
houses, but explicitly made this choice, because it found that 
the three-stage approaches used by these firms demanded 
more "involved" calculations, which depended on "the exercise 
of subjective judgment."  Id. at 62,390.  Although no party 
had discussed or advocated GDP data at the hearing, an 
exhibit to the FERC staff's testimony contained, as back-
ground, estimates of long-term GDP growth from both DRI 
(5.37 percent) and Energy Information Administration 
("EIA") (6.33 percent).  The Commission averaged these 
estimates to yield a long-term growth figure of 5.85 percent 
and an adjusted zone of reasonableness of 10.5 to 12.96 
percent.  See id.  Accordingly, the Commission ordered Willi-
ston Basin to use the midpoint of 11.73 percent--ironically, a 
figure even lower than that reached in the July 1995 Order--
in its compliance filing.  See id.

     Williston Basin once again sought rehearing, reiterating its 
opposition to the use of any long-term growth projections in 
the DCF analysis, and challenging on multiple grounds the 
Commission's adoption of the GDP as the long-term growth 
factor.  See Request for Rehearing of Williston Basin Inter-
state Pipeline Company ("Rehearing Request"), reprinted in 
Joint Appendix ("J.A.") 201-27.  On October 16, 1997, the 
Commission rejected these challenges in the final order under 
review, reaffirming the two-stage methodology underlying its 
rate of return determination and defending its choice of GDP 
as the long-term growth factor to be used in the DCF 
analysis.  See Williston Basin Interstate Pipeline Co., 81 



F.E.R.C. p 61,033, at 61,174-77 (1997) ("October 1997 Order").  
This petition for review followed.

                                 II. Analysis


     A.Standard of Review

     We review FERC orders under the Administrative Proce-
dure Act's ("APA") arbitrary and capricious standard.  See 
Union Pac. Fuels, Inc. v. FERC, 129 F.3d 157, 161 (D.C. Cir. 
1997);  5 U.S.C. s 706(2)(A) (1994).  Our role in this context is 
"limited to assuring that the Commission's decisionmaking is 
reasoned, principled, and based upon the record."  Pennsyl-
vania Office of Consumer Advocate v. FERC, 131 F.3d 182, 
185 (D.C. Cir. 1997) (citations and internal quotation marks 
omitted).  To this end, we examine the orders on review to 
ensure that the Commission has considered the relevant data 
and "articulate[d] ... a rational connection between the facts 
found and the choice made."  Association of Oil Pipe Lines v. 
FERC, 83 F.3d 1424, 1431 (D.C. Cir. 1996) (citations and 
internal quotation marks omitted).

     B.Rate of Return on Common Equity

     We begin with the most vigorously contested issue in this 
case:  the rate of return on common equity.  Although all 
parties to the proceeding have embraced the DCF model for 
calculating Williston Basin's return on equity, they dispute 
the appropriate methodology and data sources for determin-
ing the dividend growth rate to be used in this analysis.  In 
the orders below, the Commission adopted a two-stage 
growth factor, using IBES data for the short-term growth 
rate and GDP data for the long-term growth rate.  As we 
view it, Williston Basin's litany of challenges to this determi-
nation boils down to two core arguments:  (1) the Commission 
erred in requiring the DCF analysis to include a long-term 
growth factor at all;  and, (2) even assuming that some long-
term growth factor was appropriate, the Commission improp-
erly adopted the two GDP figures that happened to be in the 
record but were not discussed at the hearing.



1.Use of a Two-Stage Dividend Growth Factor in the 
          DCF Model

     One of Williston Basin's principal concerns is the Commis-
sion's decision to follow Ozark and other Commission prece-
dent and include a two-stage growth factor in its DCF model.  
Williston Basin suggests that the applicability of the DCF 
methodology is unjustified for lack of clarity in FERC prece-
dent.  We have a very different view of the matter.  The 
Commission squarely addressed the application of its new 
policy to the particular context of Williston Basin's ongoing 
proceeding:  following a hearing devoted expressly to long-
term growth issues, the Commission entertained and rejected 
Williston Basin's arguments on this point, explaining in full its 
decision to require a long-term growth estimate in conformity 
with the Ozark methodology.  See Williston Basin, 77 
F.E.R.C. at 65,005;  Williston Basin, 79 F.E.R.C. at 62,388;  
Williston Basin, 81 F.E.R.C. at 61,173-76.  In short, whatev-
er questions Williston Basin had regarding the use of some 
two-stage growth factor in the DCF model were answered by 
FERC.

     Williston Basin, for its part, was intractable in its position 
that the Commission should rely exclusively on the short-
term IBES forecasts in projecting dividend growth.  Indeed, 
when the Commission established a hearing for the sole 
purpose of determining the appropriate long-term growth 
rate, Williston Basin proposed no objective measure of long-
term growth, arguing instead that long-term growth was 
irrelevant, and that, even if it was relevant, IBES five-year 
data was the best estimate thereof.  See Rehearing Request 
at 21-22, reprinted in J.A. 221-22.  This tactic proved to be 
fruitless, for the Commission reasonably decided to adhere to 
its two-stage DCF model after concluding that it properly 
applied in this context.  See Michigan Wis. Pipe Line Co. v. 
FPC, 520 F.2d 84, 89 (D.C. Cir. 1975) ("There is no question 
that the Commission may attach precedential, and even con-
trolling weight to principles developed in one proceeding and 
then apply them under appropriate circumstances in a stare 
decisis manner.").  Thus, to the extent that Williston Basin's 
arguments on this score reflected efforts to skirt or modify, 



rather than comply with, the Commission's preferred DCF 
policy, the Commission acted reasonably in rejecting them.

     In summary, we find that the question of whether the DCF 
model must incorporate some long-term growth factor was 
clearly raised, considered, and resolved by the Commission.  
We conclude, therefore, that Williston Basin is not entitled to 
yet another opportunity to oppose the application of that 
policy to this rate case.

     Our inquiry does not end here, however, for a critical issue 
remains with regard to the Commission's implementation of 
its two-stage growth projection--specifically, the appropriate 
weight to be given to the short- and long-term data in this 
model.  In performing the DCF analysis in this case, the 
Commission averaged these data, relying on the general 
approach used in prior proceedings.  The Commission sup-
ported this method by explaining that it lacked the informa-
tion necessary to predict the duration of the short and long 
terms, as well as the rate at which growth would transition to 
maturity.  See Williston Basin, 81 F.E.R.C. at 61,176.  As a 
result, the Commission decided "to give [these periods] equal 
weight" in applying the "well-accepted constant growth model 
... to determine an average constant growth over time."  Id.

     During the pendency of this appeal, however, the Commis-
sion shifted course, finding in the context of a different 
proceeding that short-term growth projections should receive 
a two-thirds, rather than one-half, weighting in this analysis.  
See Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Corp., 84 F.E.R.C. 
p 61,084, at 61,423 (1998).  The Commission concluded that:

     While determining the cost of equity nevertheless re-
     quires that a long-term evaluation be taken into account, 
     long-term projections are inherently more difficult to 
     make, and thus less reliable, than short-term projections.  
     Over a longer period, there is a greater likelihood for 
     unanticipated developments to occur affecting the projec-
     tion.  Given the greater reliability of the short-term 
     projection, we believe it is appropriate to give it greater 
     weight.  However, continuing to give some effect to the 
     long-term growth projection will aid in normalizing any 



     distortions that might be reflected in short-term data 
     limited to a narrow segment of the economy.

Id.  In other words, the Commission essentially found that 
the method of averaging short- and long-term projections 
used in this case gave undue weight to the long-term data.

     Because Transcontinental appears to reflect a significant 
shift in Commission policy with regard to the DCF analysis, 
we conclude that the Commission is obligated to reconsider 
the application of that policy to Williston Basin.  See Panhan-
dle E. Pipe Line Co. v. FERC, 890 F.2d 435, 438-39 (D.C. Cir. 
1989).  In Panhandle, the Commission had rejected the pipe-
line's tariff sheets, based in part on the agency's policy 
against "capacity brokering."  While the matter was on ap-
peal to this court, the agency revised its policy, determining 
that capacity brokering should be considered on a case-by-
case basis.  See id. at 438.  We held that "[w]hen an agency 
changes a policy or rule underlying a decision pending review, 
the agency should immediately inform the court and should 
either move on its own for a remand or explain how its 
decision can be sustained independently of the policy in 
question."  Id. at 439 (citation omitted).

     Notwithstanding the admonishment in Panhandle, Com-
mission counsel contended at oral argument that Transconti-
nental does not require a remand in the present case.  Rath-
er, according to counsel, Transcontinental has no bearing on 
this case, because Williston Basin never discussed how the 
growth factors should be weighted in the DCF model.  We 
reject this view as too simplistic.  While preserving the basic 
two-stage approach of Ozark, the Commission in Transconti-
nental explicitly determined that long-term growth projec-
tions can be unreliable and therefore should be given a lesser 
weight in the DCF model.  See Transcontinental, 84 
F.E.R.C. at 61,423.  Similarly, Williston Basin, although it did 
not propose a re-weighting of the growth projections per se, 
relied in large part on the shortcomings of long-term data in 
advocating sole reliance on the IBES data.  See Rehearing 
Request at 13, reprinted in J.A. 213.  Clearly subsumed 
within the argument that the long-term data should receive 



no weight is the argument that the long-term data should 
receive a lesser weight.

     Commission counsel also attempted to distinguish Panhan-
dle by characterizing that case as involving a "reversal," 
rather than a mere "revision," of Commission policy.  We find 
this argument equally unavailing.  For one thing, in Panhan-
dle, we referred to the intervening policy change as a "revi-
sion," see 890 F.2d at 439, which belies the suggestion that 
the relevance of that case is limited to instances in which an 
agency makes an about-face.  Moreover, the instant case 
itself implicates important policy matters that have concerned 
the Commission in multiple rate adjudications over the course 
of the past half decade.  See, e.g., Northwest Pipeline Corp., 
79 F.E.R.C. p 61,309 (1997);  Williams Natural Gas Co., 77 
F.E.R.C. p 61,277 (1996);  Panhandle E. Pipe Line Corp., 71 
F.E.R.C. p 61,228 (1995);  Ozark Gas Transmission Sys., 68 
F.E.R.C. p 61,032 (1994).  While the Commission's paramount 
change in policy was its incorporation of a two-stage growth 
rate in the DCF model, its determination of the appropriate 
weights to be assigned the various growth projections is 
central to any application of this policy.  On this score, even 
the Commission conceded that a re-weighting of the short- 
and long-term growth factors would have a substantial im-
pact, in dollar terms, on Williston Basin's rates.

     Thus, we find that, in light of the Commission's recent 
refinement of its two-stage DCF model, Williston Basin may 
be entitled to a re-calculation of its rate of return on common 
equity.  Accordingly, we remand this matter to the Commis-
sion so that the agency can reconsider whether the IBES 
five-year projections advocated by Williston Basin should 
receive a greater weighting in the DCF analysis, and, if so, to 
implement this change.  Cf. NLRB v. Food Store Employees 
Union, Local 347, 417 U.S. 1, 10 n.10 (1974) ("[A] court 
reviewing an agency decision following an intervening change 
of policy by the agency should remand to permit the agency 
to decide in the first instance whether giving the change 
retrospective effect will best effectuate the policies underlying 
the agency's governing act.");  National Fuel Gas Supply 
Corp. v. FERC, 899 F.2d 1244, 1249-50 (D.C. Cir. 1990) 



(referring, in another context, to the "general principle that 
an agency should be afforded the first word on how an 
intervening change in law affects an agency decision pending 
review").

2.Adoption of GDP as the Long-Term Growth Factor

     Bearing in mind our earlier conclusion that the Commission 
properly required Williston Basin's rate of return on common 
equity to reflect long-term, as well as short-term, growth 
expectations, we turn now to the Commission's particular 
selection of the GDP for that purpose.  According to Williston 
Basin, the Commission's July 1997 Order adopting GDP as its 
measure of long-term growth was a "bolt from the blue"--an 
unexpected outcome that was untested at the hearing and 
unsupported by the record.  Thus, Williston Basin's conten-
tions reduce essentially to a claim of inadequate notice con-
cerning the possibility that the Commission would reach the 
result that it did, as well as several subsidiary claims chal-
lenging the result itself.

     In its July 1996 Order, the Commission established a 
hearing for the purpose of determining the appropriate long-
term growth factor to be used in the DCF model.  See 
Williston Basin, 76 F.E.R.C. at 61,390.  In particular, the 
Commission found that the parties "need[ed] an opportunity 
to cross-examine the proponents of using the DRI data, or 
any other long term growth projection, to determine whether 
the projections are properly used."  Id. (footnote omitted).  
Following this hearing, however, the Commission shifted tack.  
Notwithstanding the fact that it had summarily adopted the 
DRI data in its July 1995 Order, that the ALJ had accepted 
the DRI data after considering the parties' positions at the 
hearing, and that the DRI data had been used in Ozark, the 
Commission determined to use instead an economy-wide pro-
jection based on GDP data.  Moreover, notwithstanding its 
earlier position that a hearing was needed concerning the 
suitability of DRI data for the two-stage DCF model, the 
Commission refused Williston Basin's request for such a 
hearing on the use of GDP data.



     It is well-established that "[a] party is entitled ... to know 
the issues on which decision will turn and to be apprised of 
the factual material on which the agency relies for decision so 
that he may rebut it.  Indeed, the Due Process Clause forbids 
an agency to use evidence in a way that forecloses an 
opportunity to offer a contrary presentation."  Bowman 
Transp., Inc. v. Arkansas-Best Freight System, Inc., 419 U.S. 
281, 288 n.4 (1974);  see also Hatch v. FERC, 654 F.2d 825, 
835 (D.C. Cir. 1981) (same);  United Gas Pipe Line Co. v. 
FERC, 597 F.2d 581, 586-87 (5th Cir. 1979) ("The law will not 
tolerate ... after-the-fact, in fact retroactive, imposition of 
standards," especially where there is "no evidence either to 
support or justify" the new standard.).  Our present concern 
centers, then, on whether the Commission's order setting the 
long-term growth matter for hearing provided Williston Basin 
with adequate notice of the issues that would be considered, 
and ultimately resolved, at that hearing.  In particular, we 
question whether Williston Basin had reason to know that an 
economy-wide projection based on GDP data was at issue 
and, also, whether the Commission's judgment on this score 
followed logically from the testimony and other evidence 
adduced at the hearing.  In addition, we question whether 
substantial record evidence supports the actual GDP figure 
adopted by the Commission for use in calculating Williston 
Basin's rate of return on common equity.

     As we perceive it, the Commission's decision progressed in 
two relatively distinct steps:  first, the Commission expanded 
the scope of its long-term growth factor from the natural gas 
industry to the economy as a whole, as reflected in the GDP;  
and second, the Commission adopted the average of two GDP 
estimates contained in a record exhibit as the long-term 
growth factor to be used for the newly-defined DCF model in 
this case.  The Commission's first step--its decision to adopt 
an economy-wide approach--reflected a well-reasoned and 
supported outgrowth of the matter under consideration, 
namely, the appropriate long-term growth factor to be used in 
the DCF analysis.  The Commission established the hearing 
in broad terms, inviting the parties both to advocate the 
appropriate data to be used in general, and to challenge the 



use of DRI data in particular.  See Williston Basin, 76 
F.E.R.C. at 61,390.  Moreover, the testimony adduced at the 
hearing demonstrated that major investment houses used an 
economy-wide approach to projecting long-term growth, that 
such an approach was supported by practical economic con-
siderations, and that existing industry-specific approaches 
imperfectly reflected investor expectations and made un-
founded economic assumptions.  See Williston Basin, 79 
F.E.R.C. at 62,388-90.  Finally, whether or not it is true, as 
Commission counsel now suggests, "that GDP [is] virtually 
synonymous with the economy as a whole," Brief for Respon-
dent at 42, we have little doubt that GDP is among the most 
commonly used and widely available measures of economy-
wide growth.  In short, we are convinced that FERC's deci-
sion to expand the scope of its long-term analysis reflected a 
reasoned progression from the issues set for hearing, and 
that the data informing that decision was in the record and 
discussed at the hearing.

     However, we find that the Commission's second step, by 
which it reached the precise long-term growth estimate of 
5.85 percent, lacked adequate support in the record.  As 
discussed above, we do not take issue with the Commission's 
decision, on a general level, to use GDP data in estimating 
long-term growth.  The problem, in our view, is that there 
are conceivably a number of estimates of GDP created by 
different entities and based on different economic assump-
tions.  Yet, FERC, after substantially modifying the scope of 
its long-term analysis, and without forewarning to the parties, 
simply teased two GDP figures from the background 
section to a single exhibit to reach the result here at issue. 
See J.A. 315;  Williston Basin, 79 F.E.R.C. at 
62,390.  This was a bizarre conclusion to the hearing.  It is 
undisputed that the record in the hearing had been created 
largely in response to a specific concern over the suitability of 
industry-specific DRI data for use in the DCF model.  No 
party at the hearing had presented, advocated, or even men-
tioned the use of GDP data.  In light of these circumstances, 
we find that the Commission neither explained nor supported 
its choice of the DRI and EIA estimates of GDP contained in 



the existing record.  Accordingly, we remand to the Commis-
sion for further proceedings on this issue.

     C.Ad Valorem Taxes

     Next, we address Williston Basin's proposed ad valorem tax 
expense, which the Commission rejected as inconsistent with 
test period principles.  In its filing, Williston Basin sought to 
recover the additional ad valorem taxes associated with plant 
increases during the test period by applying the effective tax 
rate for the 1991 year in each state in which it owned 
property to its total capital investment in those states, as 
adjusted for additions during the test period.  Williston Basin 
contended that this represented a proper adjustment to re-
flect changes that were "known and measurable" within the 
meaning of the Commission's regulations.  See 18 C.F.R. 
s 154.303(a)(4).  The plant additions occurring during the 
test year will, it argued, produce higher tax assessments by 
the relevant states for the effective period of the rates.

     The Commission refused to approve this approach, howev-
er, requiring instead that Williston Basin support its filing 
with the actual ad valorem tax liability incurred during the 
test period.  See Williston Basin, 76 F.E.R.C. at 61,384.  In 
reversing the ALJ on this point, the Commission explained 
that Williston Basin's proposed tax liability was too specula-
tive:

     While the plant additions occurred within the test period, 
     the effect on [Williston Basin's] ad valorem taxes of the 
     installation of those facilities is not known and could not 
     be measured with reasonable accuracy during the test 
     period in this case.  The determination of the exact ad 
     valorem tax effect is a local matter involving local valua-
     tion and tax assessment procedures.  Further, because 
     of depreciation, existing facilities may generate lower ad 
     valorem tax liability than as reflected in the test period 
     data, thereby offsetting in some unknown way the poten-
     tial ad valorem tax liability.

Williston Basin, 72 F.E.R.C. at 61,363.  According to the 
Commission, "the actual costs for any expense or tax during 



the test period generally reflects the best evidence of what 
the company can expect to incur in the future."  Williston 
Basin, 76 F.E.R.C. at 61,384.

     The Commission's ruling on this issue reduces to its basic 
position that Williston Basin's proposed calculation was "con-
jecture," because "too many variables" could influence Willi-
ston Basin's actual tax liability during the effective period of 
the rates.  Id.  Williston Basin counters that it obviated these 
concerns by assuming the tax rate in effect during the test 
period and adjusting only that variable--plant balance--for 
which changes were known and measurable at the time of 
filing.  According to Williston Basin, this approach is consis-
tent with the methodology approved by the Commission in a 
prior Williston Basin proceeding, Williston Basin Interstate 
Pipeline Co., 56 F.E.R.C. p 61,104 (1991) ("1991 Order").

     In the prior proceeding on which Williston Basin relies, 
Montana had significantly increased the allocation of Williston 
Basin's pipeline property to that state, but had allowed a 
phase-in of the higher allocation percentage over a three-year 
period, from 1986 through 1988.  The Commission apparently 
found that this phase-in produced known and measurable 
increases in the allocation on which the taxes that Williston 
Basin owed Montana were based.  On this ground, the Com-
mission approved a methodology reflecting the increases that 
occurred during the applicable test period, which ended Janu-
ary 31, 1988.  This approach involved two steps:  first, the 
1987 ad valorem taxes paid were divided by the 1986 year-end 
plant balance to determine the relevant tax rate;  and second, 
that rate was applied to a tax base representing the plant 
balance as of December 31, 1987.  See Williston Basin, 56 
F.E.R.C. at 61,382-83.  As we see it, the new plant capital at 
issue in this case is analytically equivalent to the phase-in of 
property allocation permitted in the earlier Williston Basin 
proceeding.  Therefore, the upward adjustment allowed by 
the Commission in the 1991 Order to reflect increases in plant 
balance during the test year is apparently of the same variety 
proposed by Williston Basin in the present case.



     Although the Commission was not strictly bound to follow 
the methodology approved in the prior Williston Basin pro-
ceeding, it was obligated to articulate a principled rationale 
for departing from that methodology.  See Gilbert v. NLRB, 
56 F.3d 1438, 1445 (D.C. Cir. 1995) ("It is ... elementary that 
an agency must conform to its prior decisions or explain the 
reason for its departure from such precedent.");  National 
Conservative Political Action Comm. v. FEC, 626 F.2d 953, 
959 (D.C. Cir. 1980) (same).  In other words, "[r]easoned 
decisionmaking requires treating like cases alike."  Hall v. 
McLaughlin, 864 F.2d 868, 872 (D.C. Cir. 1989).  The Com-
mission's task on this score was not unduly onerous, for we 
have held that "[w]here the reviewing court can ascertain that 
the agency has not in fact diverged from past decisions, the 
need for a comprehensive and explicit statement of its current 
rationale is less pressing."  Id.  Thus, an agency's findings 
will be upheld, "though of less than ideal clarity, if the 
agency's path may reasonably be discerned."  Greater Boston 
Television Corp. v. FCC, 444 F.2d 841, 851 (D.C. Cir. 1970).  
In this case, the Commission failed to satisfy even this 
relatively forgiving standard.

     The Commission purported to distinguish the prior Willi-
ston Basin proceeding, holding that

     the salient finding by the Commission was that the State 
     of Montana had prescribed higher tax rates and that it 
     had allowed a phase-in of those rates.  Therefore, there 
     was ample rationale for finding there that the expenses 
     claimed by [Williston Basin] were based on adjustments 
     for known and measurable changes that would occur 
     during the period the rates were to be in effect.  Here, 
     this is simply not the case.  While the plant additions 
     occurred within the test period, the effect on [Williston 
     Basin's] ad valorem taxes ... is not known and could not 
     be measured with reasonable accuracy during the test 
     period.

Williston Basin, 72 F.E.R.C. at 61,363.  The Commission 
elaborated on rehearing that "there was nothing speculative 
in the increase because the same valuation of the properties 



was used and only the percentage allocation to Montana was 
changed.  That type of change is different than an increase in 
the value of the property which [Williston Basin] claims in 
this proceeding."  Williston Basin, 76 F.E.R.C. at 61,384.

     The 1991 Order may indeed be distinguishable on the basis 
of property valuation, which is a critical step in assessing ad 
valorem tax liability.  Property valuation is performed by 
individual states in accordance with local practice and, often, 
the discretion of individual assessors.  FERC may be right 
that valuation was speculative in the present case, because 
the new plant additions had not yet been assessed by the 
relevant states.  In fact, Williston Basin proposed to rely 
solely on its own investment in plant facilities, even though 
the valuation process almost certainly includes consideration 
of other factors.  Thus, the impact of the plant increases here 
may not have been "known and measurable," as required by 
the test period regulations.  By contrast, at least as we see it, 
the "plant addition" at issue in the 1991 Order resulted 
simply from the phased-in allocation of existing plant, which 
had presumably already been valued.  In that case, then, 
there was nothing uncertain:  the Commission took the known 
Montana tax rate during the test period and applied that 
rate to the known tax base--a higher percentage of the 
previously-assessed value of Williston Basin's property--dur-
ing the test period.

     Assuming the facts as we do, and assuming that our 
reasoning mirrors the Commission's intended reasoning, we 
think that this distinction may be compelling.  The sticking 
point for us, then, is the extent to which the Commission's 
orders compel us to make such assumptions.  In other words, 
we are simply unable, on the record as it now exists, to assure 
ourselves either that this distinction holds water, or that this 
analysis does, in fact, capture the Commission's reasoning.  
For example, the Commission described the 1991 Order 
variably as involving a phase-in of tax rates and a phase-in of 
property allocation.  Yet, tax rates are not at issue here, 
because Williston Basin voluntarily assumed the tax rate in 
effect during the test period.



     Moreover, even assuming that we have correctly identified 
the distinction upon which the Commission relied, we are not 
confident that the record supports this distinction.  Our 
uncertainty derives principally from the lack of clarity in the 
1991 Order, and the Commission's failure to explain that 
order here.  Specifically, because we do not know the precise 
calculations and dollar amounts involved in the prior case, we 
are not sure that the Commission's prior ruling was based 
solely upon the phase-in of plant allocation.  Indeed, our own 
rough calculations suggest that approximately $67,000 in dis-
puted ad valorem tax expenses is not explained by the phase-
in.  The logic of the Commission's holding in the 1991 Order, 
particularly as it is couched in broad language, might support 
the inference that this discrepancy reflects additional plant 
increases of the nature involved in this case.  If that is the 
case, the supposed distinction, based on the uniquely known 
and measurable character of the phased-in plant allocation, 
rings hollow.

     On its face, the 1991 Order refutes the broad principle on 
which the Commission relied in rejecting Williston Basin's ad 
valorem tax expense in this case--namely, that a pipeline may 
only use taxes actually paid during the test period to support 
its estimate of taxes in its compliance filing.  Particularly in 
light of this contradiction, we believe that the Commission 
failed to provide a clear and well-supported explanation of 
why the methodology used in the 1991 proceeding was not 
appropriate here.  We recognize that the Commission may, in 
fact, have a persuasive ground for distinguishing this case 
from the 1991 Order.  On remand, then, FERC will have an 
opportunity to offer a coherent rationale to support its judg-
ment and, also, to show that the cited rationale is supported 
by the record.

     D.Throughput

     Finally, we turn to the Commission's decision to reject 
Williston Basin's proposed throughput volume.  In its filing, 
Williston Basin sought to adjust its base period data to 
account for decreases in throughput resulting primarily from 
bypasses of its transmission system by two major suppliers.  



At the time of filing, Williston Basin expected these bypasses 
to occur before the adjustment period ended on October 31, 
1992.  Thus, it argued that they represented "known and 
measurable" changes to its actual experience during the test 
period, which could properly be reflected in its rate filing.  
See 18 C.F.R. s 154.303(a)(4).

     The source of contention here arises from the fact that the 
bypasses did not actually occur until after the test period had 
ended.  In other words, due to the timing of these rate 
proceedings, actual adjustment and post-test period data was 
available by the time the Commission considered the matter.  
This data showed that the bypasses were not completed 
during the test period, but were completed very shortly 
thereafter.  Thus, if Williston Basin was permitted to include 
this adjustment, it would over-recover for three or four 
months of the rate period commencing November 1, 1992.  
However, if Williston Basin was not permitted to include this 
adjustment, it would under-recover for eight or nine months 
of that rate period (assuming, that is, that it did not file a new 
rate case to cover that period).

     The crux of Williston Basin's position is that the Commis-
sion should accept its throughput projection, because the 
estimate was reasonable when made.  The ALJ agreed, con-
cluding that "under established Commission precedent, a test 
year projection may be set aside only if its is shown to have 
been unreasonable when made."  Williston Basin, 68 
F.E.R.C. at 65,069.  Both Williston Basin and the ALJ relied 
chiefly upon Public Service Co. of Indiana, 7 F.E.R.C. p 61,-
319 (1979), aff'd sub nom. Indiana Municipal Electric Ass'n 
v. FERC, 629 F.2d 480 (7th Cir. 1980), a proceeding in which 
the Commission accepted an electric utility's test period cost-
of-service estimate--even though a particular component of 
its projection ultimately proved exaggerated--because the 
estimate was reasonable when made and did not yield unrea-
sonable results.  See Public Service, 7 F.E.R.C. at 61,701-02.

     The Commission, however, rejected this view in the orders 
below, holding that whether or not Williston Basin's projec-



tion was reasonable when made, "where the pipeline ... 
projects an event to occur before the end of the test period, 
but in fact that event does not become effective within the 
required time period, the Commission generally requires that 
event not be reflected in the pipeline's rates."  Williston 
Basin, 72 F.E.R.C. at 61,382.  In the Commission's view, the 
alleged reasonableness of Williston Basin's estimate went 
only to its compliance with filing requirements under 18 
C.F.R. s 154.303.  See id.  It did not "preclude the Commis-
sion from considering updated data in deciding the ultimate 
question of what rates should be found just and reasonable 
for the relevant periods," id.;  nor did it "endow [the bypas-
ses] with the required characteristics to be allowed as an 
adjustment."  Williston Basin, 76 F.E.R.C. at 61,388.  Thus, 
the Commission refused the proposed adjustment, adopting 
instead the FERC staff's proposal, which based throughput 
levels on actual data for the twelve months immediately 
preceding the effective date of the rates.  See Williston 
Basin, 72 F.E.R.C. at 61,382.

     We begin our analysis of this issue by recognizing a point 
that, while seemingly semantic, may bear on the relative 
merit of the parties' arguments--that is, who sought the 
"adjustment" in this case?  On the one hand, from the 
Commission's standpoint, Williston Basin asked for an adjust-
ment to its base period data to reflect a decline in throughput 
that was projected to, but did not, occur during the applicable 
"adjustment period."  Under this view, the Commission's 
decision was apparently consistent with the test period regu-
lations governing pipelines, which on their face allow only 
adjustments for changes that will occur before the end of the 
test period.  See 18 C.F.R. s 154.303(a)(4).  Not only is it 
undisputed that the changes in this case did not occur during 
the test period, but the Commission actually noted that, 
"[h]ad the bypasses taken place in the test period, ... the 
adjustment would have been permitted."  Williston Basin, 76 
F.E.R.C. at 61,388.  However, the Commission found that, 
because the bypasses did not occur during the test period, 
and because it could not be known during the test period 
exactly when they would occur, the use of post-test period 



data showing that they did occur shortly after that time 
expired was "too much in the nature of hindsight."  Williston 
Basin, 72 F.E.R.C. at 61,383.  Moreover, it determined that 
the position advocated by Williston Basin would give pipelines 
an incentive to selectively project only adjustments that 
would prove favorable to them if they actually occurred--i.e., 
increases in costs and decreases in throughput, see Williston 
Basin, 76 F.E.R.C. at 61,388--which is, in fact, what Williston 
Basin appears to have done in this case.

     On the other hand, however, Williston Basin labels the 
Commission as the party that sought an adjustment, because 
Williston Basin wanted to use the estimate it made upon filing 
this rate case, while the Commission wanted to adjust that 
estimate to account for actual data during the adjustment 
portion of the test period.  Under this view, the Commission's 
ruling appears less reasonable, for Williston Basin is quite 
correct in observing that the Commission in the past has 
declined to disturb test period estimates that were proven 
inaccurate in light of later data if those estimates were 
reasonable when made and did not produce unreasonable 
consequences.  See, e.g., Indiana & Mich. Mun. Distribs. 
Ass'n v. FERC, 659 F.2d 1193, 1198-99 (D.C. Cir. 1981);  
Public Service, 7 F.E.R.C. at 61,701.  In this case, the 
Commission conceded that Williston Basin's throughput pro-
jection was reasonable when made, and did not even attempt 
to explain why the projection, although it in fact occurred 
within a short time after the test period, was so erroneous as 
to yield unreasonable results.  Yet, it refused to let Williston 
Basin's projection stand.  Thus, instead of analyzing Williston 
Basin's claim under the framework of the above cases, the 
Commission simply ignored them, citing them only insofar as 
it summarized the parties' arguments, and leaving us to guess 
as to why they should not apply here.

     As with the ad valorem tax issue, we once again find 
ourselves able to surmise a solid basis for distinction.  Here, 
it is the simple fact that the vast majority of cases espousing 
the principle of "reasonable when made" involved electric 
utilities, rather than natural gas pipelines.  See, e.g., Public 
Service, 7 F.E.R.C. p 61,319.  Although the Commission em-



ploys a test period methodology for setting rates in both 
contexts, the applicable regulations differ considerably in 
their treatment of estimates.  As noted, the rates for pipe-
lines are based on actual data for a one-year period, as 
adjusted to reflect known and measurable changes that will 
occur over the following nine months.  See 18 C.F.R. 
s 154.303.  These pipeline regulations do not appear to make 
use of estimates at all;  indeed, they require test period 
projections to be updated with actual data for the adjustment 
period as it becomes available.  See id. s 154.311(a), (b).  By 
contrast, the rates for utilities are derived from two distinct 
periods:  actual data for the year known as "Period I" and 
estimated data for the year known as "Period II."  See id. 
s 35.13(d)(1), (2).  These utility regulations do not explicitly 
require that Period II estimates are known and measurable, 
or that they will in fact occur during the test year.  See id. 
s 35.13(d)(2)(i).

     As we interpret them, then, the regulations applying to 
utilities vest far greater weight in estimates than do the 
regulations governing pipelines.  It is plainly rational to infer 
from these differences in regulatory context that the "reason-
able when made" formulation applies only to a utility's Period 
II estimates and not to a pipeline's projected adjustments.  
In short, applying the rule of Public Service comports with 
the plain language of the utility regulations, but would re-
quire the Commission to recognize an exception to the pipe-
line regulations.  The Commission may therefore reasonably 
have determined that Public Service was inapposite in this 
context.

     This explanation for the Commission's decision would be 
satisfactory but for two shortcomings.  First, although this 
distinction may seem fairly obvious once recognized, the fact 
remains that the Commission itself did not articulate, or even 
allude to, it in the orders below.  See American Pub. Transit 
Ass'n v. Lewis, 655 F.2d 1272, 1278 (D.C. Cir. 1981) (citing 
SEC v. Chenery Corp., 332 U.S. 194, 196 (1947)).  Second, 
both the Commission and courts have, in the past, essentially 
ignored this issue, citing test period precedent inter-
changeably in utility and pipeline cases.  See, e.g., Exxon, 114 



F.3d at 1263 & n.23;  Distrigas of Mass. Corp. v. FERC, 737 
F.2d 1208, 1220 (1st Cir. 1984);  National Fuel Gas Supply 
Corp., 51 F.E.R.C. p 61,122, at 61,334 & n.53 (1990).  Thus, 
we have no way of knowing whether the Commission's de-
sired approach is to recognize this broad distinction between 
the regulations, or to intentionally skate over the differences 
in the terms of the regulations, intending instead that the test 
period concept operate identically in the utility and pipeline 
contexts.

     By failing to distinguish the authority on which Williston 
Basin relied in support of its position, and which at least 
superficially contravened the Commission's ruling, the agency 
appeared to "gloss[ ] over or swerve[ ] from prior precedents 
without discussion," Greater Boston, 444 F.2d at 852, thereby 
foregoing reasoned decision making.  It may well be that the 
Commission had in mind this, or another, rational explanation 
for its ruling.  But as we have noted in the past, "[w]ithout 
any explicit recognition by the Commission that the standard 
has been changed, or any attempt to forthrightly distinguish 
or outrightly reject apparently inconsistent precedent, we are 
left with no guideposts for determining the consistency of 
administrative action in similar cases, or for accurately pre-
dicting future action by the Commission."  Hatch, 654 F.2d at 
834-35 (footnote omitted).  As such, we must remand to the 
Commission on this issue as well.

                               III. Conclusion


     For the foregoing reasons, Williston Basin's petition for 
review is granted in part and denied in part, and the matter 
is remanded to the Commission for further proceedings.

     So ordered.