In the United States Court of Appeals For the Seventh Circuit ____________________ȱ No.ȱ16Ȭ1036ȱ OTGONBAATARȱTSEGMED,ȱ Petitioner,ȱ v.ȱ JEFFERSONȱ B.ȱ SESSIONSȱ III,ȱ Attorneyȱ Generalȱ ofȱ theȱ Unitedȱ States,ȱ Respondent.ȱ ____________________ȱ PetitionȱforȱReviewȱofȱanȱOrderȱofȱtheȱȱ BoardȱofȱImmigrationȱAppeals.ȱ No.ȱA089Ȭ272Ȭ651.ȱ ____________________ȱ ARGUEDȱFEBRUARYȱ8,ȱ2017ȱ—ȱDECIDEDȱJUNEȱ15,ȱ2017ȱ ____________________ȱ Beforeȱ WOOD,ȱ Chiefȱ Judge,ȱ FLAUM,ȱ Circuitȱ Judge,ȱ andȱ CONLEY,ȱDistrictȱJudge. ȱ WOOD,ȱ Chiefȱ Judge.ȱ Otgonbaatarȱ Tsegmed,ȱ aȱ citizenȱ ofȱ Mongolia,ȱoverstayedȱaȱnonȬimmigrantȱvisaȱandȱhasȱbeenȱlivȬ ingȱinȱtheȱUnitedȱStatesȱsinceȱ2004.ȱHeȱcameȱtoȱtheȱattentionȱ ȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱȱ ȱOfȱtheȱWesternȱDistrictȱofȱWisconsin,ȱsittingȱbyȱdesignation.ȱ 2ȱ No.ȱ16Ȭ1036ȱ ofȱtheȱDepartmentȱofȱHomelandȱSecurityȱinȱ2008,ȱafterȱhisȱsecȬ ondȱ arrestȱ forȱ Drivingȱ Underȱ theȱ Influenceȱ inȱ Illinois.ȱ Theȱ governmentȱ placedȱ himȱ inȱ removalȱ proceedings.ȱ Heȱ conȬ cededȱthatȱheȱwasȱremovable,ȱbutȱheȱfiledȱanȱapplicationȱwithȱ theȱimmigrationȱcourtȱinȱJulyȱ2008ȱseekingȱasylum,ȱwithholdȬ ingȱofȱremoval,ȱandȱprotectionȱunderȱtheȱConventionȱAgainstȱ Tortureȱ(CAT).ȱTheȱImmigrationȱJudgeȱ(IJ)ȱdeniedȱhisȱappliȬ cationȱandȱorderedȱhimȱremovedȱtoȱMongolia;ȱtheȱBoardȱofȱ Immigrationȱ Appealsȱ (BIA)ȱ affirmed.ȱ Tsegmedȱ nowȱ chalȬ lengesȱthoseȱdecisions.ȱBecauseȱweȱlackȱjurisdictionȱtoȱreviewȱ theȱ denialȱofȱhisȱasylumȱ application,ȱandȱtheȱevidenceȱdoesȱ notȱcompelȱtheȱconclusionȱthatȱheȱisȱeligibleȱforȱwithholdingȱ orȱreliefȱunderȱtheȱCAT,ȱweȱdenyȱhisȱpetitionȱforȱreview.ȱȱ Iȱ Tsegmedȱ isȱ aȱ memberȱ ofȱ theȱ Taijȱ ethnicȱ group,ȱ whichȱ isȱ reportedlyȱ descendedȱ fromȱ nobilityȱ andȱ stillȱ privilegedȱ inȱ Mongolia.ȱHeȱattendedȱschoolȱinȱtheȱSovietȱUnionȱandȱthenȱ becameȱ aȱ highȬrankingȱ officerȱ inȱ theȱ Mongolianȱ military.ȱ Inȱ thatȱposition,ȱheȱworkedȱonȱhighlyȬclassifiedȱassignmentsȱandȱ hadȱ knowledgeȱ ofȱ theȱ internalȱ workingsȱ ofȱ theȱ governingȱ Communistȱ regime.ȱ Butȱ heȱ andȱ hisȱ closeȱ friend,ȱ Bayarbat,ȱ eventuallyȱ becameȱ involvedȱ withȱ theȱ proȬdemocracyȱ moveȬ mentȱinȱMongoliaȱwhileȱtheȱcountryȱwasȱruledȱbyȱMongolia’sȱ CommunistȱParty.ȱTheȱpoliceȱarrestedȱTsegmedȱandȱBayarbatȱ inȱ1989ȱwhileȱtheȱtwoȱwereȱdistributingȱproȬdemocracyȱpamȬ phlets.ȱAfterȱtheȱarrest,ȱtheȱpoliceȱheldȱTsegmedȱforȱ72ȱhours,ȱ punchedȱhimȱinȱtheȱfaceȱthreeȱtimes,ȱcalledȱhimȱnames,ȱandȱ gaveȱ himȱ noȱ food.ȱ Theȱ policeȱ arrestedȱ himȱ againȱ inȱ 1994,ȱ alongȱwithȱBayarbat,ȱduringȱanȱelectionȱprotestȱorganizedȱbyȱ theȱDemocraticȱParty.ȱȱ No.ȱ16Ȭ1036ȱ 3 Inȱ1999,ȱTsegmed’sȱyoungȱsonȱdiedȱaȱtragicȱandȱmysteriousȱ death,ȱforȱwhichȱheȱblamesȱtheȱMongolianȱgovernment.ȱTheȱ ambulanceȱthatȱTsegmedȱcalledȱinȱtheȱmidstȱofȱhisȱson’sȱmedȬ icalȱemergencyȱneverȱarrived,ȱand,ȱfollowingȱhisȱson’sȱdeath,ȱ anȱ unidentifiedȱ personȱ calledȱ andȱ mockedȱ Tsegmed,ȱ tellingȱ himȱthatȱsuchȱthingsȱhappenedȱtoȱmembersȱofȱtheȱDemocraticȱ Party.ȱ Inȱ 2001,ȱ Bayarbat’sȱ familyȱ wasȱ murdered.ȱ Theȱ ComȬ munistȱPartyȱframedȱBayarbatȱforȱtheȱmurdersȱandȱarrestedȱ him;ȱheȱeventuallyȱdiedȱinȱprison.ȱAroundȱthisȱtime,ȱtheȱpoliceȱ broughtȱ Tsegmedȱ inȱ forȱ questioning,ȱ ostensiblyȱ relatedȱ toȱ Bayarbat’sȱ arrestȱ onȱ murderȱ charges.ȱ Theyȱ insteadȱ interroȬ gatedȱ himȱ aboutȱ politicalȱ informationȱ thatȱ theyȱ believedȱ Bayarbat’sȱfatherȱhadȱgivenȱhim.ȱTheȱpoliceȱdetainedȱhimȱthatȱ timeȱforȱ72ȱhours,ȱduringȱwhichȱtheyȱpunchedȱhimȱinȱtheȱfaceȱ betweenȱfourȱandȱsixȱtimes.ȱAlthoughȱTsegmedȱrelocatedȱtoȱ theȱUnitedȱStatesȱinȱ2004,ȱTsegmed’sȱbrother,ȱwhoȱremainedȱ inȱMongolia,ȱtoldȱhimȱinȱ2007ȱthatȱunidentifiedȱpeopleȱ(preȬ sumablyȱcommunists)ȱhadȱcomeȱtoȱhimȱlookingȱforȱhisȱ“dirtyȱ brother.”ȱAȱmonthȱafterȱreportingȱthisȱtoȱTsegmed,ȱhisȱbrotherȱ died.ȱ Theȱ deathȱ wasȱ ruledȱ aȱ heartȱ attack,ȱ butȱ Tsegmedȱ beȬ lievesȱitȱmayȱhaveȱbeenȱcausedȱbyȱsomethingȱelseȱbecauseȱhisȱ brotherȱwasȱinȱgoodȱphysicalȱshape.ȱȱ TsegmedȱprovidedȱthisȱinformationȱinȱtheȱFormȱIȬ589ȱApȬ plicationȱforȱAsylumȱandȱforȱWithholdingȱofȱRemovalȱheȱfiledȱ inȱJulyȱ2008,ȱandȱinȱhisȱtestimonyȱatȱtwoȱimmigrationȱcourtȱ hearingsȱconductedȱinȱDecemberȱ2013ȱandȱJanuaryȱ2014.ȱTheȱ IJȱfoundȱTsegmedȱcredible,ȱbutȱtheȱjudgeȱnotedȱthatȱmuchȱofȱ hisȱ testimonyȱ lackedȱ corroborationȱ andȱ thereforeȱ deservedȱ lessȱweight.ȱTheȱIJȱdeniedȱreliefȱinȱJulyȱ2014,ȱandȱtheȱBIAȱafȬ firmedȱ inȱ Decemberȱ 2015.ȱ Theyȱ rejectedȱ Tsegmed’sȱ asylumȱ applicationȱbecauseȱheȱdidȱnotȱmeetȱanyȱexceptionȱtoȱtheȱoneȬ 4ȱ No.ȱ16Ȭ1036ȱ yearȱ filingȱ deadline.ȱ Seeȱ 8ȱ U.S.C.ȱ §ȱ 1158(a)(2)(B).ȱ Theȱ IJ,ȱ seȬ condedȱbyȱtheȱBoard,ȱdeniedȱwithholdingȱofȱremovalȱandȱproȬ tectionȱunderȱCATȱonȱtheȱmerits,ȱfindingȱthatȱtheȱharmȱthatȱ TsegmedȱallegedȱonȱaccountȱofȱhisȱmembershipȱinȱtheȱDemoȬ craticȱ Partyȱ wasȱ notȱ seriousȱ enoughȱ toȱ qualifyȱ asȱ “persecuȬ tion,”ȱ andȱ thatȱ Tsegmedȱ hadȱ failedȱ toȱ establishȱ thatȱ itȱ wasȱ moreȱlikelyȱthanȱnotȱthatȱheȱwouldȱbeȱtorturedȱuponȱreturn.ȱ TsegmedȱhasȱpetitionedȱusȱforȱreviewȱofȱtheȱBIA’sȱdecision.ȱȱ BecauseȱtheȱIJȱdeniedȱtheȱapplicationȱandȱtheȱBIAȱaffirmedȱ withȱ aȱ writtenȱ opinion,ȱ weȱ reviewȱ bothȱ decisions.ȱ N.L.A.ȱ v.ȱ Holder,ȱ744ȱF.3dȱ425,ȱ430ȱ(7thȱCir.ȱ2014).ȱWeȱconsiderȱlegalȱconȬ clusionsȱdeȱnovo,ȱandȱweȱreviewȱfactualȱissuesȱunderȱtheȱsubȬ stantialȱ evidenceȱ standard,ȱ “whichȱ requiresȱ usȱ toȱ assessȱ whetherȱtheȱBoard’sȱdeterminationȱisȱsupportedȱbyȱreasonaȬ ble,ȱsubstantial,ȱandȱprobativeȱevidenceȱonȱtheȱrecordȱconsidȬ eredȱasȱaȱwholeȱandȱtoȱreverseȱonlyȱifȱtheȱevidenceȱcompelsȱaȱ contraryȱ conclusion.”ȱ Abdoulayeȱ v.ȱ Holder,ȱ 721ȱ F.3dȱ 485,ȱ 490ȱ (7thȱCir.ȱ2013)ȱ(internalȱcitationsȱomitted).ȱ IIȱ Aȱ AlthoughȱTsegmedȱchallengesȱtheȱBIA’sȱandȱIJ’sȱdetermiȬ nationsȱthatȱheȱdidȱnotȱmeetȱanyȱexceptionȱtoȱtheȱoneȬyearȱfilȬ ingȱdeadlineȱforȱasylum,ȱweȱlackȱjurisdictionȱtoȱreconsiderȱtheȱ Board’sȱfinding.ȱTheȱstatuteȱrequiresȱsomeoneȱseekingȱasylumȱ toȱapplyȱforȱasylumȱwithinȱoneȱyearȱafterȱenteringȱtheȱUnitedȱ States.ȱ8ȱU.S.C.ȱ§ȱ1158(a)(2)(B).ȱThatȱruleȱcanȱbeȱrelaxedȱifȱtheȱ applicantȱ canȱ demonstrateȱ “eitherȱ theȱ existenceȱ ofȱ changedȱ circumstancesȱwhichȱmateriallyȱaffectȱtheȱapplicant’sȱeligibilȬ ityȱforȱasylumȱorȱextraordinaryȱcircumstancesȱrelatingȱtoȱtheȱ delayȱ inȱ filingȱ anȱ applicationȱ withinȱ [oneȱ year].”ȱ No.ȱ16Ȭ1036ȱ 5 §ȱ1158(a)(2)(D).ȱ Sectionȱ 1158(a)(3)ȱ furtherȱ specifiesȱ thatȱ noȱ courtȱhasȱjurisdictionȱtoȱreviewȱtheȱdeterminationȱaboutȱtheȱ timelinessȱofȱtheȱapplicationȱorȱwhetherȱchangedȱorȱextraorȬ dinaryȱcircumstancesȱexcuseȱaȱlateȱfiling.ȱNonetheless,ȱweȱreȬ tainȱ theȱ authorityȱ toȱ reviewȱ “constitutionalȱ claimsȱ orȱ quesȬ tionsȱofȱlawȱrelatedȱtoȱtheȱtimelyȱfilingȱofȱanȱasylumȱapplicaȬ tion.”ȱBitsinȱv.ȱHolder,ȱ719ȱF.3dȱ619,ȱ625ȱ(7thȱCir.ȱ2013)ȱ(citingȱ 8ȱU.S.C.ȱ§ȱ1252(a)(2)(D)).ȱ“Weȱhaveȱinterpretedȱthisȱexceptionȱ toȱapplyȱ‘toȱstrictlyȱlegalȱcontroversies,’ȱbyȱwhichȱweȱ‘mean[ȱ]ȱ thatȱtheȱpartiesȱcontestȱaȱlegalȱissue,ȱandȱthatȱtheȱalienȱwinsȱifȱ theȱlawȱprovidesȱwhatȱheȱsaysȱitȱdoesȱandȱlosesȱifȱitȱprovidesȱ whatȱtheȱagencyȱsaysȱitȱdoes.’”ȱId.ȱatȱ625–26ȱ(quotingȱRestrepoȱ v.ȱHolder,ȱ610ȱF.3dȱ962,ȱ965ȱ(7thȱCir.ȱ2010)).ȱ Tsegmedȱcontendsȱthatȱheȱhasȱshownȱjustȱsuchȱanȱerrorȱofȱ law,ȱbecauseȱ(inȱhisȱview)ȱtheȱevidenceȱofȱaȱmaterialȱchangeȱ ofȱcircumstancesȱinȱMongoliaȱisȱsoȱstrongȱthatȱaȱcontraryȱconȬ clusionȱisȱinconsistentȱwithȱtheȱstatute.ȱButȱweȱrejectedȱexactlyȱ thisȱ methodȱ ofȱ showingȱ “materialȱ changes”ȱ inȱ Viracachaȱ v.ȱ Mukasey,ȱ518ȱF.3dȱ511,ȱ514–15ȱ(7thȱCir.ȱ2008),ȱandȱ“extraordiȬ naryȱcircumstances”ȱinȱBitsin,ȱ719ȱF.3dȱatȱ626.ȱMakingȱaȱdeterȬ minationȱ aboutȱ eitherȱ “materialȱ changes”ȱ orȱ “extraordinaryȱ circumstances”ȱ requiresȱ thisȱ courtȱ onlyȱ “toȱ applyȱ aȱ legalȱ standardȱtoȱaȱgivenȱsetȱofȱfacts.”ȱBitsin,ȱ719ȱF.3dȱatȱ626.ȱThisȱ “doesȱnotȱraiseȱaȱquestionȱofȱlaw,ȱandȱ[]ȱthereforeȱdoesȱnotȱfallȱ withinȱ§ȱ1252’sȱexceptionȱtoȱtheȱjurisdictionalȱbarȱofȱ§ȱ1158.”ȱ Id.ȱ atȱ 627.ȱ Becauseȱ Tsegmedȱ doesȱ notȱ presentȱ anyȱ constituȬ tionalȱclaimsȱorȱquestionsȱofȱlaw,ȱweȱlackȱjurisdictionȱtoȱconȬ siderȱtheȱdenialȱofȱhisȱasylumȱapplication.ȱȱ 6ȱ No.ȱ16Ȭ1036ȱ Bȱ TwoȱotherȱformsȱofȱreliefȱareȱunaffectedȱbyȱtheȱoneȬyearȱ rule:ȱ withholdingȱ ofȱ removal,ȱ andȱ reliefȱ underȱ theȱ CAT.ȱ Tsegmedȱseeksȱboth.ȱ Anȱalienȱisȱentitledȱtoȱwithholdingȱofȱremovalȱifȱhisȱ“lifeȱ orȱ freedomȱ wouldȱ beȱ threatenedȱ inȱ [theȱ home]ȱ countryȱ beȬ causeȱofȱtheȱalien’sȱrace,ȱreligion,ȱnationality,ȱmembershipȱinȱ aȱ particularȱ socialȱ group,ȱ orȱ politicalȱ opinion.”ȱ 8ȱU.S.C.ȱ§ȱ1231(b)(3)(A);ȱBitsin,ȱ719ȱF.3dȱatȱ628.ȱ“Aȱthreatȱtoȱlifeȱ orȱfreedomȱisȱsynonymousȱwithȱpersecution,ȱwhichȱthisȱCirȬ cuitȱ definesȱ asȱ ‘detention,ȱ arrest,ȱ interrogation,ȱ prosecution,ȱ imprisonment,ȱillegalȱsearches,ȱconfiscationȱofȱproperty,ȱsurȬ veillance,ȱbeatings,ȱtorture,ȱbehaviorȱthatȱthreatensȱtheȱsame,ȱ andȱ nonȬlifeȬthreateningȱ behaviorȱ suchȱ asȱ tortureȱ andȱ ecoȬ nomicȱdeprivationȱifȱtheȱresultingȱconditionsȱareȱsufficientlyȱ severe.’”ȱHalimȱv.ȱHolder,ȱ755ȱF.3dȱ506,ȱ511–12ȱ(7thȱCir.ȱ2014)ȱ (quotingȱ Yiȱ Xianȱ Chenȱ v.ȱ Holder,ȱ 705ȱ F.3dȱ 624,ȱ 629ȱ (7thȱCir.ȱ2013)).ȱ“Persecutionȱinvolves,ȱweȱsuggest,ȱtheȱuseȱofȱ significantȱphysicalȱforceȱagainstȱaȱperson’sȱbody,ȱorȱtheȱinflicȬ tionȱofȱcomparableȱphysicalȱharmȱwithoutȱdirectȱapplicationȱ ofȱforceȱ(lockingȱaȱpersonȱinȱaȱcellȱandȱstarvingȱhimȱwouldȱbeȱ anȱexample),ȱorȱnonphysicalȱharmȱofȱequalȱgravity”ȱsuchȱasȱ refusingȱtoȱallowȱaȱpersonȱtoȱpracticeȱhisȱreligionȱorȱaȱcredibleȱ threatȱ toȱ inflictȱ graveȱ physicalȱ harm.ȱ Stanojkovaȱ v.ȱ Holder,ȱ 645ȱF.3dȱ943,ȱ948ȱ(7thȱCir.ȱ2011).ȱ IfȱanȱapplicantȱestablishesȱthatȱheȱhasȱsufferedȱpastȱperseȬ cution,ȱ heȱ isȱ entitledȱ toȱ aȱ rebuttableȱ presumptionȱ ofȱ futureȱ persecutionȱonȱtheȱsameȱbasis.ȱ8ȱC.F.R.ȱ§ȱ1208.16(b)(1).ȱIfȱheȱ cannotȱestablishȱpastȱpersecution,ȱheȱstillȱmayȱbeȱentitledȱtoȱ reliefȱifȱheȱcanȱdemonstrateȱaȱ“clearȱprobability”ȱofȱfutureȱperȬ secution,ȱmeaningȱthatȱitȱisȱmoreȱlikelyȱthanȱnotȱthatȱheȱwouldȱ No.ȱ16Ȭ1036ȱ 7 beȱ subjectȱ toȱ persecutionȱ ifȱ heȱ wereȱ returned.ȱ Halim,ȱ755ȱF.3dȱatȱ 512.ȱ Theȱ “clearȱ probability”ȱ standardȱ forȱ withholdingȱisȱmoreȱstringentȱthanȱtheȱ“wellȬfoundedȱfearȱofȱ futureȱpersecution”ȱstandardȱforȱasylumȱapplications.ȱPrelaȱv.ȱ Ashcroft,ȱ394ȱF.3dȱ515,ȱ519ȱ(7thȱCir.ȱ2005).ȱ TsegmedȱarguesȱthatȱhisȱpastȱharmsȱareȱproperlyȱcharacȬ terizedȱ asȱ persecutionȱ onȱ accountȱ ofȱ hisȱ Taijȱ ethnicity,ȱ hisȱ membershipȱinȱtheȱDemocraticȱParty,ȱandȱhisȱuniqueȱpositionȱ inȱtheȱmilitary.ȱHeȱpresentsȱnoȱargumentsȱorȱevidenceȱrelatedȱ toȱhisȱethnicityȱorȱhisȱmilitaryȱposition,ȱhowever,ȱandȱsoȱweȱ cannotȱrelyȱonȱeitherȱofȱthoseȱgrounds.ȱThisȱleavesȱhisȱarguȬ mentȱthatȱheȱwasȱpersecutedȱonȱaccountȱofȱhisȱmembershipȱinȱ theȱDemocraticȱPartyȱ(thatȱis,ȱonȱtheȱbasisȱofȱhisȱpoliticalȱopinȬ ionȱorȱmembershipȱinȱaȱparticularȱsocialȱgroup).ȱȱ IfȱweȱwereȱreviewingȱhisȱpetitionȱasȱaȱmatterȱofȱfirstȱimȬ pression,ȱweȱmightȱhaveȱcomeȱtoȱaȱdifferentȱconclusion.ȱButȱ weȱmayȱreverseȱtheȱBIA’sȱdeterminationȱonlyȱifȱweȱareȱcomȬ pelledȱbyȱtheȱevidenceȱtoȱconcludeȱthatȱtheȱagencyȱerred.ȱDanȬ danȱv.ȱAshcroft,ȱ339ȱF.3dȱ567,ȱ572ȱ(7thȱCir.ȱ2003).ȱTheȱIJȱandȱBIAȱ foundȱ insufficientȱ evidenceȱ toȱ supportȱ theȱ contentionȱ thatȱ Tsegmed’sȱsonȱandȱbrotherȱwereȱmurderedȱinȱ1999ȱandȱ2007,ȱ respectively.ȱTheyȱalsoȱruledȱthatȱTsegmedȱcouldȱnotȱrelyȱonȱ “derivativeȱ persecution”ȱ ofȱ Bayarbat,ȱ asȱ heȱ hadȱ notȱ allegedȱ thatȱBayarbatȱhadȱbeenȱframedȱinȱorderȱtoȱpersecuteȱTsegmed.ȱ Seeȱ Zhouȱ Jiȱ Niȱ v.ȱ Holder,ȱ 635ȱ F.3dȱ 1014,ȱ 1018ȱ (7thȱ Cir.ȱ 2011).ȱ Whileȱ Tsegmed’sȱ storyȱ isȱ aȱ deeplyȱ troublingȱ one,ȱ evenȱ withȱ theseȱqualifications,ȱweȱcannotȱsayȱthatȱtheȱBoard’sȱfindingsȱ wereȱtaintedȱbyȱlegalȱerrorȱorȱaȱlackȱofȱsupportȱinȱtheȱrecord.ȱ Tsegmed’sȱpetitionȱdescribesȱeventsȱthatȱareȱreminiscentȱofȱ otherȱcasesȱinȱwhichȱweȱhaveȱaffirmedȱfindingsȱofȱpastȱperseȬ cution.ȱSee,ȱe.g.,ȱVaduvaȱv.ȱINS,ȱ131ȱF.3dȱ689,ȱ690ȱ(7thȱCir.ȱ1997)ȱ 8ȱ No.ȱ16Ȭ1036ȱ (findingȱthatȱtheȱBIAȱreasonablyȱconcludedȱthatȱtheȱpetitionerȱ sufferedȱ pastȱ persecutionȱ basedȱ onȱ beingȱ beatenȱ upȱ byȱ strangersȱwarningȱhimȱaboutȱpoliticalȱactivity,ȱbutȱaffirmingȱ denialȱofȱasylumȱbasedȱonȱtheȱlackȱofȱaȱwellȬfoundedȱfearȱofȱ futureȱpersecution).ȱHisȱclaimsȱofȱarrest,ȱassault,ȱandȱdetenȬ tionȱwithoutȱfoodȱonȱaccountȱofȱhisȱpoliticalȱpartyȱmemberȬ shipȱandȱactivityȱdepictȱmoreȱthanȱ“mere”ȱharassmentȱ(aȱdisȬ turbinglyȱvagueȱconcept).ȱSeeȱStanojkova,ȱ645ȱF.3dȱatȱ948.ȱButȱ weȱ alsoȱ haveȱ affirmedȱ findingsȱ thatȱ similarȱ physicalȱ harmsȱ didȱnotȱwarrantȱaȱfindingȱofȱpastȱpersecution.ȱSee,ȱe.g.,ȱSirbuȱ v.ȱHolder,ȱ718ȱF.3dȱ655,ȱ659ȱn.3ȱ(7thȱCir.ȱ2013)ȱ(listingȱcasesȱafȬ firmingȱfindingsȱofȱnoȱpastȱpersecution).ȱAsȱweȱhaveȱpreviȬ ouslyȱrecognized,ȱourȱpastȬpersecutionȱcasesȱareȱ“allȱoverȱtheȱ lot.”ȱStanojkova,ȱ645ȱF.3dȱatȱ947.ȱThatȱisȱwhyȱbothȱTsegmedȱandȱ theȱgovernmentȱ“areȱableȱtoȱciteȱcasesȱthatȱsupportȱtheirȱposiȬ tion;ȱ [theȱ citations]ȱ cancelȱ eachȱ otherȱ out.”ȱ Id.ȱ “Inȱ theȱ closeȱ cases,ȱwhereȱaȱreasonableȱtrierȱofȱfactȱcouldȱmakeȱaȱdecisionȱ eitherȱway,ȱweȱshouldȱbeȱableȱtoȱdeferȱtoȱtheȱjudgmentȱofȱtheȱ immigrationȱ judgesȱ andȱ theȱ Board.”ȱ Sirbu,ȱ 718ȱ F.3dȱ atȱ 660.ȱ ThatȱprincipleȱguidesȱourȱdecisionȱtoȱacceptȱtheȱBoard’sȱconȬ clusionȱthatȱTsegmedȱdidȱnotȱmanageȱtoȱshowȱpastȱpersecuȬ tion.ȱȱȱ Becauseȱheȱhasȱnotȱestablishedȱpastȱpersecution,ȱTsegmedȱ hasȱ theȱ burdenȱ ofȱ demonstratingȱ aȱ clearȱ probabilityȱ thatȱ heȱ willȱ beȱ persecutedȱ inȱ theȱ future.ȱ Althoughȱ theȱ BIAȱ didȱ notȱ reachȱthisȱissue,ȱtheȱIJȱfoundȱthatȱheȱhadȱnotȱmetȱhisȱburden.ȱ Theȱ IJȱ concludedȱ thatȱ althoughȱ Tsegmedȱ hadȱ aȱ subjectivelyȱ genuineȱfearȱofȱpersecutionȱifȱheȱisȱsentȱbackȱtoȱMongolia,ȱthatȱ fearȱisȱnotȱobjectivelyȱreasonable.ȱTheȱDemocraticȱPartyȱconȬ trolsȱtheȱpresidencyȱandȱaȱpluralityȱofȱtheȱMongolianȱparliaȬ ment.ȱTheȱU.S.ȱStateȱDepartmentȱreportsȱthatȱthereȱareȱnoȱofȬ ficialȱpoliticalȱprisonersȱorȱdetaineesȱinȱMongolia.ȱU.S.ȱDep’tȱ No.ȱ16Ȭ1036ȱ 9 ofȱ State,ȱ Mongoliaȱ 2015ȱ Humanȱ Rightsȱ Report,ȱ https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/252995.pdf.ȱ TheȱIJȱnotedȱthatȱthereȱwasȱnoȱevidenceȱthatȱtheȱCommunistȱ PartyȱretainsȱtheȱabilityȱtoȱthreatenȱTsegmed,ȱandȱthatȱthereȱ wasȱinsufficientȱevidenceȱthatȱtheȱpartyȱwouldȱbeȱmotivatedȱ toȱtargetȱanȱopponentȱwhoȱhadȱnotȱbeenȱpoliticallyȱactiveȱforȱ aȱlongȱtime.ȱȱ Nothingȱ inȱ theȱ recordȱ requiresȱ usȱ toȱ concludeȱ thatȱ Tsegmedȱfacesȱaȱclearȱprobabilityȱofȱfutureȱpersecution.ȱWhileȱ Tsegmedȱ arguesȱ thatȱ heȱ hadȱ aȱ “wellȬfoundedȱ fearȱ ofȱ futureȱ persecution”ȱandȱthatȱheȱfacesȱaȱ“reasonableȱpossibilityȱofȱfuȬ tureȱpersecution”ȱifȱheȱreturns,ȱthatȱisȱnotȱwhatȱheȱneedsȱtoȱ showȱforȱwithholdingȱofȱremoval.ȱSeeȱPrela,ȱ394ȱF.3dȱatȱ519.ȱ Showingȱaȱ“wellȬfoundedȱfear”ȱorȱ“reasonableȱpossibility”ȱofȱ persecutionȱisȱaȱfarȱcryȱfromȱestablishingȱthatȱfutureȱpersecuȬ tionȱisȱ“moreȱlikelyȱthanȱnot.”ȱ Cȱ Finally,ȱTsegmedȱurgesȱthatȱheȱhasȱdemonstratedȱthatȱheȱ qualifiesȱforȱreliefȱunderȱtheȱCAT,ȱwhichȱrequiresȱanȱapplicantȱ toȱshowȱthatȱitȱisȱmoreȱlikelyȱthanȱnotȱthatȱheȱwillȱbeȱtorturedȱ ifȱ returnedȱ toȱ theȱ countryȱ inȱ question.ȱ 8ȱ C.F.R.ȱ §ȱ 1208.16;ȱ Bitsin,ȱ719ȱF.3dȱatȱ631.ȱTortureȱisȱdefinedȱasȱ“anyȱactȱbyȱwhichȱ severeȱpainȱorȱsuffering[ȱ]ȱ«ȱisȱintentionallyȱinflictedȱonȱaȱperȬ sonȱ «ȱ whenȱ suchȱ painȱ orȱ sufferingȱ isȱ inflictedȱ byȱ orȱ atȱ theȱ instigationȱofȱorȱwithȱtheȱconsentȱorȱacquiescenceȱofȱaȱpublicȱ officialȱ orȱ otherȱ personȱ actingȱ inȱ anȱ officialȱ capacity.”ȱ 8ȱC.F.R.ȱ§ȱ1208.18(a)(1).ȱ Butȱ Tsegmedȱ presentsȱ noȱ argumentsȱ inȱ supportȱ ofȱ thisȱ claim.ȱHeȱsaysȱonlyȱthatȱ“theȱevidenceȱoverwhelminglyȱestabȬ lishedȱthatȱheȱmetȱhisȱburdenȱforȱwithholdingȱofȱremovalȱandȱ 10ȱ No.ȱ16Ȭ1036ȱ CATȱasȱwell.”ȱThisȱisȱnotȱsufficientȱtoȱpreserveȱhisȱclaimȱforȱ ourȱ review.ȱ Pufferȱ v.ȱ Allstateȱ Ins.ȱ Co.,ȱ 675ȱ F.3dȱ 709,ȱ 718ȱ (7thȱCir.ȱ2012).ȱ Butȱ evenȱ ifȱ itȱ were,ȱ theȱ evidenceȱ weȱ alreadyȱ haveȱreviewedȱshowsȱthatȱtheȱBoardȱwasȱentitledȱtoȱfindȱthatȱ Tsegmedȱhasȱnotȱshownȱthatȱitȱisȱmoreȱlikelyȱthanȱnotȱheȱwillȱ beȱtorturedȱifȱreturnedȱtoȱMongolia.ȱ HisȱpetitionȱforȱreviewȱisȱDENIED.ȱ ȱ